Markets Update – September 7, 2026

Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture

“I don’t know that I had any confidence. I just had what a lot of people have when they get in this business: a need to try.”

Richard Dennis

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

Summer is over, and the volume is picking up. There’s a lot of rotation happening right now, and it’s expected to continue into the quarter-end.

Historically, this is a weaker period in the markets, with buybacks blackout into late September. Additionally, we have quarterly OpEX coming up in just two short weeks, and of course, the US elections in November.

The incentive is to keep markets flying , and we already know they are extremely proactive. The plan may be the same as always: welcome some decline, just enough to flip as many as possible short, managed money, CTAs, vol and trend funds, and then rug pul them, flip everything to the upside. They may remove hikes, get some sort of ceasefire, whatever it takes to be honest.

We all know this now, so will it work again? I think most assume they can keep managing the tape forever, but I don’t share that view. It’s the government after all, my friends. It’s not like they are strangers to making mistakes or outright failing in their attempts. And so, I think we could as easily be heading into a period of significant volatility.

Global markets are holding up after their recent breakouts, helped again by the dollar, it just refuses to climb higher even though everything points hat it should. Germany’s DAX and Japan’s NIKKEI cooled off, lost their uptrends. In South Korea we’re at decision point, and Taiwan is holding strong, in both it’s the AI trade that remains the main driver.

The general outlook doesn’t change. Governments are spending like there’s no tomorrow: social transfers, defense, energy, you name it. And now, the private sector has also joined the party. The global AI race is on, funded by an unbelievable amount of debt.

I don’t know how, when, or if it ends. It really depends on the money creation. It just never seems to stop, and it keeps reinforcing the K-shaped economy, globally. Cycles point to a late phase, where yields are climbing, equities are topping, and commodities are on fire. We’ll see. In the meantime, we’ll follow the trends, as always.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

FOREX

And there’s the answer to last week’s question: the dollar’s Jackson Hole bounce faded fast, no doubt mainly due to Yen intervention, for now. The DXY is rolling right back into its downtrend.

Dollar up, gold down, dollar down, gold gets bid. The uptrend is holding, but the wall of worry continues, certainly no FOMO like a few weeks ago. We’re well positioned already, so now we’re just looking to pyramid and size up, more strategically, only as opportunities present themselves.

Bitcoin and Ethereum held onto their gains. Still, I’d prefer this move wasn’t driven by government actions, and it may decouple again in the near future; it’d certainly be healthy. But for now, it is what it is.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways ➝ downtrend

• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways ➝ uptrend

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ uptrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ uptrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: sideways ➝ uptrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: neutral ➝ negative

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Massive shakeout early last week. And yet, silver, platinum, palladium, still higher, still holding their trends. There is little belief out there that this move is real, good; the wall of worry is preferable, meaning not many are long here.

Anything can happen, of course, but for us, volatility is certainly not the reason to change the trading system. If anything, we welcome it.

The base side was quieter this week, mostly holding what it built.

Copper is holding those new highs in London, the uptrend remains intact. There’s that tariffs-driven US hoarding in the mix, so we’ll have to observe. It’ll likely unwind at some point, regardless of the decision, if we ever get one.

Uranium keeps its place in both uptrends, right on time as the seasonal strength does its work. Equities were much more volatile, but also held up.

Otherwise, as always, we keep what is working, and we cut what is not, early; all in all, we’re doing what we can in this game, just riding the waves.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COBALT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COBALT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: positive ➝ neutral

ENERGIES

Crude up, gasoline up, diesel hitting all-time highs. So, what’s next?

Same as last week, or like every week since the war has started, the answer to what happens in the short term is political: the Middle East, Russia. I won’t pretend to know what they’ll do next.

What we can do is stick to facts. We know the damage to the production capacity and depletion of oil reserves, and it’ll be with us for years to come.

Energy drought will likely extend last, right until what would anyways be an underinvestment crisis, which was set to bite into the end of this decade.

Easy money has been made, but there are a lot of opportunities here for patient and strategic investors. Upstream, midstream, downstream, services, you name it, and we’re ready for it. In the meantime, our core long-term energy equity positions stay on.

Natural gas holds last week’s turn. Coal continues as well, in long, medium, and short-term uptrends now, and it’s gaining speed.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

TREASURIES

The Jackson Hole hangover is still with us, to some extent. Jobs and inflation data are taking over, regardless of the political comments that follow, almost immediately, I’d add.

Now, we also have a Fed meeting this month, with a rate decision still undecided. I think they’re succeeding in removing the forward guidance.

It’d be nice if they hadn’t removed the reaction function as well, but well, maybe that was the purpose.

We just won’t know what data to look at, it’s up to task forces. We won’t know what the inflation measure is, it’s up to task forces. And we don’t know what the balance sheet plan is, it’s up to .. you guessed it, task forces.

In any case, the long end is heading in the wrong way, again. It’ll take a lot more than words or a small hike to change that dynamic.

Markets seem to see the same as we do, and it’s that nothing structural has changed. More deficits, more issuance, more money supply.

We still take no longs here.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

AGRICULTURE

The ags just keep taking turns, sharply up, to new highs, then violent pullbacks to higher lows. It’s just how they advance, in every cycle.

Two ways to approach this volatility in our view: more short-term oriented, focused on catching swing trades in individual commodities, or longer term hold, with the good and the bad of the bull run. Both depend on the trader.

The bigger picture stays the same, and it points up. The fertilizer and energy damage is done, and El Niño is still out there. We stay long where the trends hold, and let the prices move as far as necessary to incentivize production.

The crush spread setup we’ve got our eye on is right here, and it’s building, though it may only really move into 2027. We’ll see. Patience is key.

As to fertilizer equities, they move typically well into ags bull market. Remember, farmers need money to buy them, so they need to sell their production at high prices, into the future.

Right now they’re struggling, fuel prices are through the roof. It’s typically at this point that we start seeing governments taking actions, subsidies, tax breaks, it’s good to look for that, it’s where fertilizer cycle begins.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.