Markets Update – September 29, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“One of my rules was to get out when the volatility and the momentum became absolutely insane.” - Ed Seykota, Market Wizards
When do we sell a successful position? Personally, we like to follow Seykota’s principles, it served us well during the years. There are two situations when we want to get out. The first is when the trend itself changes, a clear sign that the move is over and capital must be protected. However, the second is more deceiving, precisely because it feels so good, it’s when momentum turns parabolic, volatility becomes excessive, and price action goes “insane.” It’s certainly not easy, but in those moments the best approach is to start scaling out. Sometimes the move consolidates and offers a chance to step back in at better price, sometimes it does not. Years ago, it was difficult for us to sell and then buy back, but experience and discipline is what keeps capital intact and ready for the next move.
Why listen to Ed Seykota? He was one of the pioneers of computerized trading, trend-following and famously turned a $5,000 account into more than $15 million in about twelve years. Twelve years, not the one or two months through options trading that fake accounts on X like to boast about, preying on those who believe in shortcuts and easy money. Who would you rather listen to? In any case, his experience reminds that upside volatility is still volatility, it can be both opportunity and danger, but chasing the final stretch of a move is rarely worth the risk. His rule remains a guidepost for how we approach exits today.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number fifty-four, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and commentary across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, September 29
21:30 🇨🇳 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Tuesday, September 30
00:30 🇦🇺 AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
02:00 🇬🇧 GBP: GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
02:00 🇬🇧 GBP: GDP (YoY) (Q2)
08:00 🇪🇺 EUR: German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
09:45 🇺🇸 USD: Chicago PMI (Sep)
10:00 🇺🇸 USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
10:00 🇺🇸 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
Wednesday, October 1
All Day: 🇭🇰 Holiday – Hong Kong, National Day
All Day: 🇨🇳 Holiday – China, National Day
05:00 🇪🇺 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Sep)
08:15 🇺🇸 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
09:45 🇺🇸 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
10:00 🇺🇸 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
10:00 🇺🇸 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep)
10:30 🇺🇸 USD: Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, October 2
All Day: 🇨🇳 Holiday – China, National Day
All Day: 🇮🇳 Holiday – India, Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti
08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, October 3
All Day: 🇨🇳 Holiday – China, National Day
All Day: 🇰🇷 Holiday – South Korea, National Day
08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)
08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Unemployment Rate (Sep)
09:45 🇺🇸 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
10:00 🇺🇸 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
10:00 🇺🇸 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep)
Earnings This Week I may look at:
Monday, September 29
Carnival $CCL US – Consumer Discretionary / Leisure
Vail Resorts $MTN US – Consumer Discretionary / Leisure
Progress Software $PRGS US – Technology / Software
Tuesday, September 30
Nike $NKE US – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel
Paychex $PAYX US – Financials / Services
Lamb Weston $LW US – Consumer Staples / Food
Wednesday, October 1
Constellation Brands $STZ US – Consumer Staples / Beverages
RPM International $RPM US – Industrials / Materials
Acuity Brands $AYI US – Industrials / Electrical Equipment
Conagra Foods $CAG US – Consumer Staples / Food
Cal-Maine Foods $CALM US – Consumer Staples / Food
Thursday, October 2
Tesco $TSCO LN – Consumer Staples / Retail
Richelieu Hardware $RCH CN – Industrials / Materials
Friday, October 3
Yaskawa Electric $6506 JP – Industrials / Automation
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
$SPX / $SPY, $NDX / $QQQ, $RUT / $IWM, $DAX, $FTSE, $NKD, $HSI, $KWEB
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
FOREX
$USD, $DXY, $EUR, $AU – GOLD, $CAD, $GBP, $CHF, $BTC
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
TREASURIES
$SHY, $IEF, $TLT
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
ENERGIES
$CL, $NG, $XLE, $COAL
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
INDUSTRIAL METALS
$SLV, $PL / $PPLT, $PA / $PALL, $HG
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• STEEL HRC – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• IRON ORE 62% – CHINA: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
AGRICULTURE
$OJ, $KC, $CC, $LE, $GF, $ZL
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
