Markets Update – October 6, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“Your goal is to trade well, not to trade often.” Tom Basso, Market Wizards
There are many ways to invest and trade, and quite a few of them can work very well. Over time, each of us finds the approach that best fits our personality. Some go after momentum, others rely on research and fundamentals, and others focus on technicals or draw their edge from options activity. Whatever the method, real progress tends to come when your style aligns with how your mind naturally works.
Tom Basso is one of the quieter figures from the Market Wizards series, but his perspective has always stayed with me. When I first read his interview, I found it deeply appealing. Schwager called him “Mr. Serenity” for his calm through any cycle. It resonated, and I wanted to understand why. So I read his books on trading and risk management and immediately recognized what he built his success on: balance, discipline, and emotional control. That’s exactly what I wanted to develop in my own process.
Maybe it also clicked because Basso approached markets like an engineer - designing rules that removed emotion and emphasized consistency. That framework changed everything for me. I sleep well because I no longer worry about what the market will do next. I know exactly what I will do, where I will enter, where I will trim, and where I will exit.
His lessons fit any market, but especially today’s. Liquidity remains adequate, momentum is strong, and many positions are working well, some almost too well. And that’s exactly when discipline matters most. It’s often easy to mistake favorable conditions for permanent edge. Whatever your approach, trading well means following your own process rather than chasing what others are doing. The best traders know when to act and when to wait. Patience is still the real source of consistency.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number fifty-five, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the previous report.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DAX – GERMANY: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• COTTON No. 2 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CORN – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
Took notes of the books. I always have problems with sizing and in the last year's has been the major one. Thanks as every week, this weekly report is great.