Markets Update – October 27, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people, not that I’m better than most people, always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something.”
Jim Rogers, legendary investor, co-founder of the Quantum Fund, and author of several influential books on global investing and market cycles.
There are hundreds of investment and trading systems out there. The great thing about this game of ours is that they can all work as long as they fit the person using them. That said, I have found one element that seems to be part of every successful approach, and that is patience.
For long term investors, patience can mean holding a position for years. For trend followers, it might mean months. For swing traders, weeks. For day traders, hours. The timeframe changes, but the discipline does not. Patience is the silent edge.
So where are we now, and why start with this quote this week?
Markets are back up again and appear to be setting up for another move higher. Almost every major asset is near all time highs, and frankly, very little looks cheap from a valuation standpoint. In times like this, the best trade is often restraint. I would rather wait for the new setup that is screaming at me, the one that is so clear it feels uncomfortable not to act.
But patience also means staying with what is working, surviving shakeouts and closing only when thesis plays out, targets are reached or trends are changing. In the meantime, one can always find some corner of the market that is cheap and offers asymmetric opportunity. Respecting that process, I’m keeping what I have, continue to trade tactically, but I’m not personally eager to go big anywhere new. My dry powder is for the moments when the market panics, not when it feels comfortable. That discipline has saved me more times than I can count.
What I am also actively doing right now is research. I am refining the list of assets I want to own and the prices at which I want to buy them. I cannot stress enough how important that is. Research builds confidence to act when the time is right and gives you conviction to ignore the noise and stay with your positions when volatility tests you.
Patience is not passive. It is an active choice, the ability to wait for clear opportunity instead of chasing noise. The best investors do not trade because they are bored, they trade because the moment demands it. Sometimes the hardest and smartest move you can make is to do nothing.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number fifty-eight, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the previous report.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• DAX – GERMANY: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• EUR/USD – EURO: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, October 27
• All Day: 🇳🇿 Holiday – New Zealand, Labor Day
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep)
Tuesday, October 28
• 10:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Wednesday, October 29
• All Day: 🇭🇰 Holiday – Hong Kong, Chung Yeung Day
• 09:45 🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Statement
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 14:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference
• 23:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, October 30
• 05:00 🇪🇺 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 09:00 🇪🇺 German CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 09:15 🇪🇺 Deposit Facility Rate (Oct)
• 09:15 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 09:45 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference
• 21:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Friday, October 31
• 06:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Oct)
Earnings on our radar this week:
Monday, October 27
• Nucor $NUE US – Materials
• Indian Oil $IOCL IN – Energy
• Alliance Resource Partners $ARLP US – Energy
• Alpek $ALPEKA MM – Materials
Tuesday, October 28
• Visa $V US – Financials
• Southern Copper $SCCO US – Materials
• BNP Paribas $BNP FP – Financials
• Mondelez International $MDLZ US – Consumer
• PayPal $PYPL US – Technology
• D.R. Horton $DHI US – Consumer
• Enphase Energy $ENPH US – Energy
• Centerra Gold $CG CN – Materials
Wednesday, October 29
• Microsoft $MSFT US – Technology
• Meta Platforms $FB US – Technology
• Alphabet $GOOG US – Technology
• Caterpillar $CAT US – Industrials
• Airbus $AIR FP – Industrials
• Boeing $BA US – Industrials
• Agnico Eagle Mines $AEM CN – Materials
• Alamos Gold $AGI CN – Materials
• Ivanhoe Mines $IVN CN – Materials
• NexGen Energy $NXE CN – Energy
• FMC $FMC US – Materials
• CVR Energy $CVI US – Energy
• Transocean $RIG US – Energy
• Athabasca Oil $ATH CN – Energy
Thursday, October 30
• Apple $AAPL US – Technology
• Amazon $AMZN US – Consumer / Technology
• Mastercard $MA US – Financials
• Shell $RDSA NA – Energy
• TotalEnergies $TTE FP – Energy
• Coinbase $COIN US – Financials / Technology
• Sinopec $600028 CH – Energy
• Monster Beverage $MNST US – Consumer
• Enterprise Products Partners $EPD US – Energy
• Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ CN – Energy
• MicroStrategy $MSTR US – Technology
• Cheniere Energy $LNG US – Energy
• Vale $VALE3 BZ – Materials
• Vulcan Materials $VMC US – Materials
• Cenovus Energy $CVE CN – Energy
• Cheniere Energy Partners $CQP US – Energy
• Repsol $REP SM – Energy
• International Paper $IP US – Materials
• Eagle Materials $EXP US – Materials
• National Fuel Gas $NFG US – Energy
• Eldorado Gold $ELD CN – Materials
• CNX Resources $CNX US – Energy
• Gerdau $GGBR4 BS – Materials
• Peabody Energy $BTU US – Energy
• Capstone Copper $CSC AU – Materials
• Champion Iron $CIA AU – Materials
• Baytex Energy $BTE CN – Energy
• HelloFresh $HFG GR – Consumer
• Vital Energy $LPI US – Energy
Friday, October 31
• Exxon Mobil $XOM US – Energy
• Chevron $CVX US – Energy
• Linde $LIN US – Materials
• CNOOC $883 HK – Energy
• Imperial Oil $IMO CN – Energy
• Sumitomo Corp. $8053 JP – Industrials / Trading
• BYD $1211 HK – Consumer / Autos / Clean Tech
• Sensient Technologies $SXT US – Materials
• Acerinox $ACX SM – Materials
• Sumitomo Heavy Industries $6302 JP – Industrials
• Nippon Light Metal $5703 JP – Materials
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
