Markets Update – October 20, 2025

Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture

“A great trader once noted there are only two emotions in the market: hope and fear. The only problem, he added, is we hope when we should fear, and we fear when we should hope.”

William J. O’Neil, investor and author of the classic How to Make Money in Stocks (1988). Investor, author, and entrepreneur best known as the founder of Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), one of the most influential financial publications in the United States and globally, recognized for its data-driven research and disciplined approach to stock analysis.

Given the current market environment, it’s a good time to explore O’Neil’s thinking on risk control. After all, he pioneered the CAN SLIM investment system, a systematic method that blends fundamental growth and technical strength to identify market leaders early in their advances. While designed for equities, its core principles apply across asset classes.

But what I really find useful at this particular time is one of O’Neil’s key rules: when a position stops performing or loses momentum, what we call trend change, sell it without hesitation. His process was entirely rule-based, free from emotion and personal bias, and we certainly try to act in the same way.

It helps that I’ve always found this mindset natural. In fact, I often feel I’m built the opposite way most traders are. As O’Neil liked to remind, investors tend to hope when they should fear, and fear when they should hope. I’m the reverse. The more an asset is “feared” or hated but shows long-term potential, the more I “hope” and take active positions. Conversely, the higher a position climbs, the more cautious I become. You must stay with your winners, but only strict risk control rules will help you keep the gains, and risk control is very well guided by a healthy amount of fear.

I’m often asked why I trim positions during strong bull markets, especially lately. The answer is the same every time: I sell winners in only two situations: when the trend changes, or when a parabolic move develops. The latter is the one that particularly terrifies me, it’s because experience teaches what usually follows on the other side.

For me, staying with the winning position isn’t about maximizing upside; it’s about minimizing downside. Every stock, however great it may be, or any other asset, will have periods of large pullback. Sometimes it seems easy when we look back at the chart. If only I held through every 15–30 percent correction, I would double my money! Sound appealing, but very few truly have the stomach for it, they often exit at the worst time.

I sell some because one of these times the position won’t come back, the trend will change, and I will exit very near the top. Whether a position ends up a 150 percent or 200 percent gain in the end makes little difference to me, especially in cyclical sectors. Managing risk provides me the mental capacity to stay with trades longer, and that matters far more than squeezing the last percentage point out of a rally.

Even the best bull markets can be wasted without discipline. It helps to view every position as one of hundreds you will take in a lifetime.

On the last note, the investing world loves stories about the investor who bought early, held forever, and became rich. In reality, that’s survivorship bias. We rarely hear from the millions who bought and held, and lost. Buy-and-hold only works if you’re holding the right asset at the right time in the cycle.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number fifty-seven, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the previous report.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:

Monday, October 20
• All Day: 🇸🇬 Holiday – Singapore, Diwali

Tuesday, October 21
• All Day: 🇮🇳 Holiday – India, Diwali (Laxmi Puja)

Wednesday, October 22
• All Day: 🇮🇳 Holiday – India, Diwali (Balipratipada)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, October 23
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Sep)

Friday, October 24
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep)

Earnings on our radar this week:

Monday, October 20
• Zions Bancorporation $ZION US – Financials
• Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF US – Materials
• PrairieSky Royalty $PSK CN – Energy

Tuesday, October 21
• Netflix $NFLX US – Communication Services
• General Electric Aerospace $GE US – Industrials
• Coca-Cola $KO US – Consumer Staples
• Philip Morris International $PM US – Consumer Staples
• Lockheed Martin $LMT US – Industrials
• General Motors $GM US – Consumer Discretionary
• EQT $EQT US – Energy
• Steel Dynamics $STLD US – Materials
• Halliburton $HAL US – Energy
• Matador Resources $MTDR US – Energy

Wednesday, October 22
• Tesla $TSLA US – Consumer Discretionary
• Kinder Morgan $KMI US – Energy
• Teck Resources $TCKB CN – Materials
• Reliance Steel & Aluminum $RS US – Materials
• Alcoa $AA US – Materials
• Whitecap Resources $WCP CN – Energy
• Patterson-UTI Energy $PTEN US – Energy
• Oceaneering International $OII US – Energy
• Chemours $CC US – Materials
• NextEra Energy Partners $NEP US – Utilities
• Helix Energy Solutions $HLX US – Energy
• Precision Drilling $PD CN – Energy
• Tronox $TROX US – Materials

Thursday, October 23
• Mastercard $MA US – Financials
• Linde $LIN US – Materials
• Blackstone $BX US – Financials
• CNOOC $883 HK – Energy
• Newmont Mining $NEM US – Materials
• Valero Energy $VLO US – Energy
• Ford Motor $F US – Consumer Discretionary
• Eagle Materials $EXP US – Materials
• American Airlines $AAL US – Industrials
• Darling Ingredients $DAR US – Consumer Staples
• Minerals Technologies $MTX US – Materials
• World Kinect Corporation $INT US – Energy
• Advantage Oil & Gas $AAV CN – Energy
• Kaiser Aluminum $KALU US – Materials

Friday, October 24
• Exxon Mobil $XOM US – Energy
• AbbVie $ABBV US – Health Care
• Procter & Gamble $PG US – Consumer Staples
• Agricultural Bank of China $601288 CH – Financials
• Chevron $CVX US – Energy
• Hitachi $6501 JP – Industrials
• Sanofi $SAN FP – Health Care
• General Dynamics $GD US – Industrials
• Illinois Tool Works $ITW US – Industrials
• Eni $ENI IM – Energy

Saturday, October 25
• China Shenhua Energy $601088 CH – Energy
• China Molybdenum $603993 CH – Materials

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 30-YEAR T-BOND: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com