Markets Update – October 13, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being where you buy and sell.”
Tom Basso, author of Panic-Proof Investing (1996) and The All-Weather Trader (2023) - quote from New Market Wizards (1992).
What a Friday we had in the markets! Many assets were hit, particularly technology stocks and the crypto space, but most commodities were not spared either. There were, however, some bright spots such as precious metals and uranium. The selloff was event driven, and it could easily bounce from here. Whatever is next, it is only our plan and reaction that we have control over. Given that recent volatility and what I can see others are going through by reading the messages, I just had to go again this week with a quote from Tom Basso. There is a good reason I had dived into his system last week. Few traders have captured the essence of discipline and emotions as clearly as he has, and his lessons about having your own system apply even more when volatility reappears after a long stretch of calm.
If you are wondering whether I lost money, the answer is: some. It depends on the account type. I have spoken many times about keeping several buckets, each with its own purpose. The first one, my retirement account, was hit. There is not much I can do there without creating tax implications. It is filled with passive exposure to the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other large stocks, part of what I call “The Big Long,” the massive passive bid driven by global regulation and retirement flows.
The second one, my longer-term opportunity account, covering anything between one and five years, was roughly flat. Gold came to the rescue as it should, but also other hard assets and selected positions that offset weakness in oil, industrials, and financials. It remains well balanced for now, though I fully expect it to underperform if broader markets shift into a sustained downtrend.
Finally, the third account, focused on short term trading, this one was up, although not by a lot. That was largely due to hedges and a few tactical trades I had taken off earlier in the week. I have become almost religious about taking profits precisely when a trade begins to feel unstoppable. That mindset is a direct extension of Basso’s principles, where psychology comes first, risk control follows, and timing perfect exit points are the least of one’s worries.
Last week I wrote that trading well means following your own process rather than chasing what others are doing. The best traders know when to act and when to wait. That remains as true today as ever. The calmness that Basso represents is not about ignoring volatility but about building a process that can absorb it, take it head on. Markets will always do what they want, we can’t change that, we must operate in the world of probabilities. The difference between success and failure often lies in how we respond when the environment changes.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number fifty-six, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the previous report.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, October 13
• All Day: 🇨🇦 Holiday – Canada, Thanksgiving Day
• All Day: 🇯🇵 Holiday – Japan, National Sports Day
Tuesday, October 14
• 02:00 🇪🇺 EUR: German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 12:20 🇺🇸 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday, October 15
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: CPI (MoM) (Sep)
Thursday, October 16
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GBP: GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 USD: Crude Oil Inventories
Friday, October 17
• 05:00 🇪🇺 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 USD: Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Earnings on my radar this week:
Monday, October 13
• Fastenal $FAST US – Industrials
• HCL Tech $HCLT IN – Information Technology
Tuesday, October 14
• JPMorgan $JPM US – Financials
• J&J $JNJ US – Health Care
• Goldman Sachs $GS US – Financials
• Citigroup $C US – Financials
• BlackRock $BLK US – Financials
• Domino’s Pizza $DPZ US – Consumer Discretionary
Wednesday, October 15
• Bank of America $BAC US – Financials
• Morgan Stanley $MS US – Financials
• Kinder Morgan $KMI US – Energy
• United Airlines Holdings $UAL US – Industrials
• J. B. Hunt $JBHT US – Industrials
• Knight Transportation $KNX US – Industrials
Thursday, October 16
• Charles Schwab $SCHW US – Financials
• Tractor Supply $TSCO US – Consumer Discretionary
• Interactive Brokers $IBKR US – Financials
• Commercial Metals $CMC US – Materials
• Universal Forest Products $UFPI US – Materials
• Lindsay $LNN US – Industrials
• Marten Transport $MRTN US – Industrials
Friday, October 17
• Zijin Mining $601899 CH – Materials
• Schlumberger $SLB US – Energy
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 30-YEAR T-BOND: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
