Markets Update – November 3, 2025

Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture

“Traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade.

In reality, the entry size is often more important than the entry price because if the size is too large, a trader will be more likely to exit a good trade on a meaningless adverse price move.

The larger the position, the greater the danger that trading decisions will be driven by fear rather than by judgment and experience.”

From Jack D. Schwager’s Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win - summary of his interview with Steve Clark, trader, investor, entrepreneur, and founder of Omni Partners LLP.

I think we have all, at one point or another, oversized our positions. You cannot miss it when it happens. Sleep gets uncomfortable and you find yourself thinking about the trade far more than you should. The larger the size, the more it occupies your mind, and in extreme cases it’s all the time.

For me, it was clear from the beginning that this was something I wanted to avoid. If I was going to pursue trading seriously, I wanted to remove as much stress from the equation as possible. Not an easy thing to do, I can tell you. Over the years, a set of personal, methodical rules evolved, where position size is adjusted not only to the asset class and volatility, but also to what is often overlooked, how far the trade has already gone.

This week I chose a quote about sizing because I have been getting a lot of questions about entering particular stocks and commodities. It is not surprising that most of these come after the move has already started. That is perfectly understandable; unless you are spending all your time studying the markets, it is difficult to catch the early part of a move. However, what these questions are really about is risk, and risk is about sizing, even when the question may not seem to be.

That is why my answer is always the same. It depends on how far we are into the trade and how high we have already climbed. Position size should reflect that. This is particularly evident in commodities. I was not worried entering a large position in gold when it was trading around $2,000 and entered fresh uptrend. In the same way, good stocks trading at low valuations offer the opportunity to size up. Much less so when they are in nosebleed territory, as some are right now.

When in winning trade I will reduce the size of my position as the price moves substantially higher or when a parabolic move begins to form. I ride the trend with a core position until it changes, but I also make sure not to get shaken out by refusing to take any profits at all.

Position size is the silent driver of trading psychology. When it is right, you can think clearly, follow your plan, and let the market do the work. When it is wrong, the market will control you. Managing size is managing risk, and managing risk is managing emotion.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number fifty-nine, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the old report.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Key Economic Events This Week

Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:

Monday, November 3
• All Day: 🇯🇵 Holiday – Japan, Culture Day
• All Day: 🇷🇺 Holiday – Russia, National Holiday
• 10:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct)
• 23:30 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

Tuesday, November 4
• All Day: 🇷🇺 Holiday – Russia, Unity Day
• 11:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)

Wednesday, November 5
• All Day: 🇮🇳 Holiday – India, Guru Nanak Jayanti
• 09:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Oct)
• 10:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 11:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, November 6
• 08:00 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

Earnings on our radar this week:

Monday, November 3

• Palantir Technologies $PLTR US – Technology
• Realty Income $O US – Real Estate
• Williams Companies $WMB US – Energy
• Franco-Nevada $FNV CN – Materials
• Diamondback Energy $FANG US – Energy
• Coterra Energy $CTRA US – Energy
• Comstock Resources $CRK US – Energy
• Boise Cascade $BCC US – Materials

Tuesday, November 4

• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD US – Technology
• Shopify $SHOP CN – Technology
• Uber Technologies $UBER US – Consumer
• Pfizer $PFE US – Healthcare
• Mitsubishi $8058 JP – Industrials
• BP $BP LN – Energy
• Ferrari $RACE IM – Consumer
• Corteva $CTVA US – Materials
• Archer-Daniels-Midland $ADM US – Materials
• International Flavors & Fragrances $IFF US – Materials
• Ball $BLL US – Materials
• Western Gas Partners $WES US – Energy
• Rivian Automotive $RIVN US – Consumer
• Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH US – Consumer
• Mosaic $MOS US – Materials
• Ingredion $INGR US – Consumer
• MEG Energy $MEG CN – Energy
• SSR Mining $SSRM CN – Materials
• Air Canada $AC CN – Industrials
• California Resources $CRC US – Energy
• Harley-Davidson $HOG US – Consumer

Wednesday, November 5

• McDonald’s $MCD US – Consumer
• Qualcomm $QCOM US – Technology
• Robinhood $HOOD US – Financials
• DoorDash $DASH US – Consumer
• Mitsui $8031 JP – Industrials
• BMW $BMW GR – Consumer
• Suncor Energy $SU CN – Energy
• Cameco $CCO CN – Energy
• Nutrien $NTR CN – Materials
• Texas Pacific Land $TPL US – Energy
• Nippon Steel $5401 JP – Materials
• Devon Energy $DVN US – Energy
• Tourmaline Oil $TOU CN – Energy
• CF Industries $CF US – Materials
• Plains All American Pipeline $PAA US – Energy
• Albemarle $ALB US – Materials
• Hecla Mining $HL US – Materials
• APA $APA US – Energy
• National Fuel Gas $NFG US – Energy
• Keyera $KEY CN – Energy

Thursday, November 6

• AstraZeneca $AZN LN – Healthcare
• Vistra Corp $VST US – Utilities
• Airbnb $ABNB US – Consumer
• Monster Beverage $MNST US – Consumer
• EOG Resources $EOG US – Energy
• Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM CN – Materials
• Warner Bros Discovery $DISCA US – Communication Services
• Petrobras $PETR3 BZ – Energy
• Commerzbank $CBK GR – Financials
• Heidelberg Materials $HEI GR – Materials
• Rockwell Automation $ROK US – Industrials
• DuPont de Nemours $DD US – Materials
• Hyatt Hotels $H US – Consumer
• Moderna $MRNA US – Healthcare
• Air France-KLM $AF FP – Industrials
• Chesapeake Utilities $CPK US – Utilities
• Flowers Foods $FLO US – Consumer
• Nomad Foods $NOMD US – Consumer
• Tidewater $TDW US – Energy
• Albemarle $AIN US – Materials
• Dorian LPG $LPG US – Energy

Friday, November 7

• Constellation Energy $CEG US – Utilities
• KKR $KKR US – Financials
• Enbridge $ENB CN – Energy
• Duke Energy $DUK US – Utilities
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries $7011 JP – Industrials
• Honda Motor $7267 JP – Consumer
• Daimler Truck Holding $DTG GR – Industrials
• Fujikura $5803 JP – Industrials
• Mitsui Fudosan $8801 JP – Real Estate
• Hindalco Industries $HNDL IN – Materials
• Kubota $6326 JP – Industrials
• Turkish Airlines $THYAO TI – Industrials
• Shimizu Corporation $1803 JP – Industrials
• Kikkoman Corporation $2801 JP – Consumer
• Delek US Holdings $DK US – Energy

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• STEEL HRC – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CORN – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥

COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None

Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com