Markets Update – November 24, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“It’s liquidity that moves markets.”
Stanley Druckenmiller, legendary investor and hedge-fund manager, Lost Tree Club (North Palm Beach), January 18, 2015
It’s a simple statement, almost too much so, yet it explains so much of the world we trade in. He was of course right, particularly in the shadow of the post-GFC years, a time when the Federal Reserve’s actions defined almost the entire market landscape.
And that remains true today. The Fed’s interest rate policy and balance sheet still sit at the center of market narratives, but after the pandemic we entered a different world. Liquidity stopped being mostly a monetary phenomenon. Governments stepped in with enormous force. Call it fiscal dominance, call it interventionism, either way, governments are now a major source of liquidity. Fiscal policy on this scale may feel relatively new for America, but it is not new for the rest of the world.
We are now in a tug-of-war between monetary and fiscal forces. Sometimes they work in unison and flood markets with liquidity, as they did right after the pandemic hit. The economy was damaged, but markets did not care. Then came 2022. The Fed hiked aggressively, ended QE, and the money supply contracted. Markets sank even though deficits were widening. Fiscal alone could not support risk assets when monetary liquidity was falling faster. Then the Fed paused and started signaling rate cuts, and fiscal was still running at an enormous pace, so money supply started increasing, and we entered a fresh bull market.
So where does that leave us today?
We are again facing liquidity issues, something everyone suddenly wants to talk about. We have been highlighting this risk since the debt ceiling was raised. The Treasury was always going to issue a tidal wave of debt, draining liquidity from everywhere else. That is precisely when we shifted heavily into the US dollar. Then the government shutdown reinforced the squeeze, they simply could not spend. And now, with the TGA being run down slowly, perhaps deliberately, it almost looks like an attempt to corner the Fed into cutting rates or restarting QE.
They may be saving that dry powder for the election cycle for now, but eventually TGA government funds will be released and increase liquidity. But at the same time, we are in the middle of a credit cycle. A huge amount of debt rolls in 2025–2026. And now markets may also be starting to price the possibility of political gridlock after midterm elections, a scenario where no new large fiscal packages get passed. In an era defined by perpetual liquidity injections, even the absence of new spending can be bearish.
The one clear bullish setup I can see is this: a meaningful correction, a proper bottom, and then riding the inevitable liquidity wave politicians will try to create into the election year. But that only works with better entry levels, not up here.
There are moments to be brave, moments where rising liquidity lifts almost anything you buy. And there are moments like now, where markets feel stretched, running on fumes, and the next wave of liquidity is no longer guaranteed. I wish it were not this way, but it is. And we have to navigate our investing decisions accordingly.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-two, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC is only now starting to catch up on delayed Commitment of Traders (COT) report releases. Normal publication is expected to resume on January 23, 2026. As a result, this week’s positioning data reflects the most recently available CFTC report along with data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
· RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
· MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
· EUR/USD – EURO: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· ZINC – UNITED KINGDOM: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· None
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· 2-YEAR T-NOTE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· 30-YEAR T-BOND: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· 30-YEAR T-BOND: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· COFFEE C: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
· CORN: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
· None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, November 24
Holidays: 🇯🇵 Japan (Labor Day)
• 00:00 🇸🇬 Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 00:00 🇸🇬 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 02:30 🇨🇭 Employment Level (Q3)
• 04:00 🇩🇪 German Business Expectations (Nov)
• 04:00 🇩🇪 German Current Assessment (Nov)
• 04:00 🇩🇪 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)
• 07:45 🇪🇺 ECB’s Elderson Speaks
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 09:50 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 12:45 🇩🇪 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 13:00 🇺🇸 2-Year Note Auction
Tuesday, November 25
Holidays: 🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina (National Day)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Control (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 09:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 (YoY) (Sep)
• 09:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Retail Inventories ex-Auto (Aug)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 5-Year Note Auction
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 CPI (QoQ) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Oct)
• 20:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 20:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
• 20:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Statement
• 21:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Press Conference
Wednesday, November 26
Holidays: 🇲🇳 Mongolia (Independence Day)
• 00:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 ECB Financial Stability Review
• 04:20 🇩🇪 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
• 05:00 🇬🇧 Autumn Forecast Statement
• 05:30 🇩🇪 German 10-Year Bund Auction
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Inventories ex-Auto (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 11:05 🇪🇺 ECB’s Lane Speaks
• 12:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 13:00 🇺🇸 7-Year Note Auction
• 13:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Beige Book
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
• 16:45 🇳🇿 Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3)
• 20:30 🇯🇵 BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks
Thursday, November 27
Holidays: 🇺🇸 United States (Thanksgiving Day)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)
• 05:45 🇪🇺 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
• 07:30 🇪🇺 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Current Account (Q3)
• 09:00 🇪🇺 ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
• 18:30 🇯🇵 Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
Friday, November 28
Holidays: 🇺🇸 United States (Thanksgiving Day – Early close at 13:00)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 HICP (MoM) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇨🇭 KOF Leading Indicators (Nov)
• 03:00 🇨🇭 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 03:00 🇨🇭 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov)
• 03:55 🇩🇪 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 03:55 🇩🇪 German Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 German Buba Balz Speaks
• 05:00 🇪🇺 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 05:30 🇮🇳 GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 06:00 🇫🇷 Jobseekers Total (Oct)
• 06:00 🇹🇷 CBRT Financial Stability Report
• 06:30 🇧🇷 Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratio (MoM) (Oct)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Nov)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
Saturday, November 29
• 20:30 🇨🇳 Chinese Composite PMI (Nov)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Earnings this week:
Monday, November 24
• Naspers $NPN (JSE) – Communication Services 🇿🇦
• Agilent $A (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Keysight Technologies $KEYS (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Zoom $ZM (NASDAQ) – Technology/Communication 🇺🇸
• Woodward $WWD (NASDAQ) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Semtech $SMTC (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Central Garden & Pet $CENTA (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Compass Diversified Holdings $CODI (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
Tuesday, November 25
• Alibaba $BABA (NYSE) – Consumer/Tech 🇨🇳/🇺🇸
• Analog Devices $ADI (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Dell Technologies $DELL (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Autodesk $ADSK (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Workday $WDAY (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Zscaler $ZS (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• HP $HPQ (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• NetApp $NTAP (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Dollar Tree $DLTR (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Dick’s Sporting Goods $DKS (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Burlington Stores $BURL (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Best Buy $BBY (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• NIO $NIO (NYSE) – Consumer/EV 🇨🇳/🇺🇸
• J.M. Smucker $SJM (NYSE) – Consumer/Staples 🇺🇸
• Urban Outfitters $URBN (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Arrowhead Research $ARWR (NASDAQ) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• EasyJet $EZJ (LSE) – Industrials/Travel 🇬🇧
• Ambarella $AMBA (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• American Eagle Outfitters $AEO (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Kohl’s $KSS (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Webjet $WEB (ASX) – Industrials/Travel 🇦🇺
• Guess $GES (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• GB Group $GBG (LSE) – Technology 🇬🇧
Wednesday, November 26
• Deere & Company $DE (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Donaldson $DCI (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Five Below $FIVE (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• BRP $DOO (TSX) – Consumer 🇨🇦
• PVH $PVH (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Box $BOX (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
Thursday, November 27
• Kroger $KR (NYSE) – Consumer/Staples 🇺🇸
• PayPoint $PAY (LSE) – Financials 🇬🇧
Friday, November 28
• Meituan $3690 (HKEX) – Consumer/Tech 🇨🇳
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
