Markets Update – November 17, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“The trading rules I live by are:
Cut losses.
Ride winners.
Keep bets small.
Follow the rules without question.
Know when to break the rules.”
Ed Seykota, interview in Market Wizards (Jack D. Schwager, 1989)
There aren’t many lists in trading that deserve to be read twice, but this one does. The rules look simple on the surface, straightforward and almost obvious, yet anyone who has spent real time in the markets knows how hard they are to actually live by.
But it is really the fifth rule is where things get real. Knowing when to break the rules never meant abandoning discipline or acting on impulse. It meant recognizing when market conditions shift enough that rigid thinking becomes a liability. Flexibility is not weakness after all - it is part of survival.
That idea resonates with me now more than ever. Markets have become wobbly again. Some setups follow through, others evaporate. Trends look clean one day and completely disjointed the next. In this environment, sticking to the process matters, but so does knowing when to step aside.
You do not have to trade every day or even every week. Sometimes the best trade is patience, and the best use of time is research. Knowledge is the only real source of conviction, and conviction is what keeps you steady when pressure rises and volatility picks up.
As Ed Seykota used to say, the feelings we accept, and experience openly rarely interfere with our trading. It is the emotions we suppress that are dangerous and leak into our decisions. So, I stay cautious. I stay selective. I let the market reveal where it wants to go instead of forcing my expectations onto it. The goal is not to catch every move. It is to stay aligned, stay prepared, and stay in the game long enough for the right opportunities to return. They always do.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-one, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the last available report and data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DOW JONES - UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DXY - US DOLLAR INDEX: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• EUR/USD - EURO: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD - CANADIAN DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CNH/USD - CHINESE YUAN: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• NOK/USD - NORWEGIAN KRONE: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• DXY - US DOLLAR INDEX: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• PLATINUM - UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• IRON ORE, 62% - CHINA: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• TIN - LME, UNITED KINGDOM: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• COCOA - UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• ORANGE JUICE - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Sunday, November 16
• 18:50 🇯🇵 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q3)
• 21:30 🇹🇭 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 23:30 🇯🇵 Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
Monday, November 17
Holidays: 🇨🇴 Colombia (Independence Day), 🇲🇽 Mexico (Revolution Day), 🇦🇷 Argentina (National Sovereignty & Children Day)
• 03:00 🇨🇭 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
• 05:00 🇪🇺 EU Economic Forecasts
• 08:15 🇨🇦 Housing Starts (Oct)
• 08:20 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
• 08:30 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Foreign Securities Purchases (Sep)
• 09:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 11:00 🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance (Oct)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
• 19:30 🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, November 18
• 08:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
• 08:15 🇨🇦 Housing Starts (Oct)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 16:45 🇳🇿 PPI Input (QoQ) (Q3)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Adjusted Trade Balance
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Exports (YoY) (Oct)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Trade Balance (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
Wednesday, November 19
• 02:00 🇬🇧 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:30 🇮🇩 Interest Rate Decision
• 03:00 🇪🇺 ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Sep)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 13:00 🇺🇸 20-Year Bond Auction
• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 20:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Nov)
• 20:15 🇨🇳 PBoC Loan Prime Rate (1Y)
Thursday, November 20
Holiday: 🇧🇷 Brazil (Black Awareness Day)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German PPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:00 🇿🇦 Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Employment (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 RMPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇲🇽 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 13:00 🇺🇸 10-Year TIPS Auction
• 18:30 🇯🇵 National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 18:30 🇯🇵 National CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇯🇵 au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Nov)
• 23:00 🇲🇾 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
Friday, November 21
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
• 03:15 🇪🇺 France Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 03:15 🇪🇺 France Services PMI (Nov)
• 03:30 🇪🇺 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 03:30 🇪🇺 Germany Services PMI (Nov)
• 03:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 04:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Services PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 Composite PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI (Nov)
• 07:00 🇲🇽 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 07:00 🇲🇽 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 07:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 08:00 🇪🇺 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:31 🇨🇦 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 Composite PMI (Nov)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
• 10:40 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
• 13:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Earnings this week:
Monday, November 17
• Huazhu Limited $HTHT (NASDAQ) – Consumer/Services 🇺🇸
• Aramark $ARMK (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• James Hardie $JHX (ASX) – Materials 🇦🇺
• XP $XP (NASDAQ) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Brady $BRC (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Big Yellow Group $BYG (LSE) – Real Estate 🇬🇧
• Hillenbrand $HI (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Solaria Energia Y $SLR (BME) – Utilities 🇪🇸
• J&J Snack Foods $JJSF (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Compass Diversified Holdings $CODI (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
Tuesday, November 18
• Home Depot $HD (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• PDD Holdings $PDD (NASDAQ) – Consumer/Tech 🇺🇸
• Trip.com $TCOM (NASDAQ) – Consumer/Travel 🇺🇸
• Baidu $BIDU (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Imperial Brands $IMB (LSE) – Consumer 🇬🇧
• AECOM $ACM (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Diploma $DPLM (LSE) – Industrials 🇬🇧
• Dolby Laboratories $DLB (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Weibo $WB (NASDAQ) – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• Helmerich & Payne $HP (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Energizer $ENR (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Great Portland Estates $GPE (LSE) – Real Estate 🇬🇧
• Telkom SOC $TKG (JSE) – Telecom 🇿🇦
• Azenta $BRKS (NASDAQ) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• La-Z-Boy $LZB (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Tatton Asset Management $TAM (LSE) – Financials 🇬🇧
Wednesday, November 19
• Nvidia $NVDA (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• TJX Companies $TJX (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Lowe’s Companies $LOW (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Palo Alto Networks $PANW (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Deere & Company $DE (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• NetEase $NTES (NASDAQ) – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• Tokio Marine $8766 (TSE) – Financials 🇯🇵
• Target $TGT (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• MS&AD Insurance $8725 (TSE) – Financials 🇯🇵
• Sompo Japan Nipponkoa $8630 (TSE) – Financials 🇯🇵
• Lenovo $992 (HK) – Technology 🇭🇰
• Metro $MRU (TSX) – Consumer 🇨🇦
• The Sage Group $SGE (LSE) – Technology 🇬🇧
• NIO $NIO (NYSE) – Consumer/EV 🇺🇸
• Williams Sonoma $WSM (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Dycom Industries $DY (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• British Land Company $BLND (LSE) – Real Estate 🇬🇧
• New Jersey Resources $NJR (NYSE) – Utilities 🇺🇸
• JET2 $JET2 (LSE) – Industrials/Travel 🇬🇧
• Griffon $GFF (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Workspace Group $WKP (LSE) – Real Estate 🇬🇧
Thursday, November 20
• Walmart $WMT (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Intuit $INTU (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Ross Stores $ROST (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Veeva Systems $VEEV (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Copart $CPRT (NASDAQ) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Jacobs Engineering $JEC (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Thyssenkrupp $TKA (IBIS) – Industrials 🇩🇪
• Gap $GPS (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• UGI $UGI (NYSE) – Utilities 🇺🇸
• Post $POST (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• ESCO Technologies $ESE (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Maximus $MMS (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Bath And Body Works $BBWI (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Mitie Group $MTO (LSE) – Industrials 🇬🇧
• Vnet Group $VNET (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Webjet $WEB (ASX) – Industrials/Travel 🇦🇺
• XPS Pensions Group $XPS (LSE) – Financials 🇬🇧
• CMC Markets $CMCX (LSE) – Financials 🇬🇧
Friday, November 21
• Meituan $3690 (HK) – Consumer/Tech 🇭🇰
• BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings $BJ (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Babcock International $BAB (LSE) – Industrials 🇬🇧
• Macy’s $M (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Buckle $BKE (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com