Markets Update – November 10, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning.”
William Eckhardt, from his interview in The New Market Wizards (Jack D. Schwager, 1992)
That’s one of those thoughts that only comes from experience. Anyone who has been through longer winning streaks knows exactly what Eckhardt meant. It’s not easy to stay emotionally level when things go right. Large profits make you believe you’re doing something special, that you can’t lose, and that the rules can be stretched just a bit. That’s usually when mistakes happen.
Unless you have a system in place, it can be brutal. With time, you either adopt someone else’s good risk management rules or you develop your own, usually through a fair amount of pain. The key is to stick to them, even when emotions tell you otherwise. After all, none of us wants to give back hard-earned gains, especially when the thesis was well-researched and took time to build. Risk control keeps you grounded when markets try to seduce you into overconfidence.
That’s where I am now. It’s been a strong year, but that’s exactly when I have to stay the most cautious. I can’t increase risk just because year-to-date results look good. Some warning signs are starting to appear in the markets, fewer things are working, mistakes are creeping in, this tells me that it’s not the time to get aggressive. Rules of risk management are triggered when volatility rises and price action becomes erratic.
For now, I’ll keep managing the positions I already have, trading tactically when the setups are clear, and following my process to the letter. I may not capture every move if markets rip higher from here, but I learned long ago that this game isn’t about short-term results. It’s about consistent performance over years, even decades, and that kind of achievement is extremely rare.
On that note, it’s worth recalling the Turtle Trader experiment that Eckhardt ran with his business partner Richard Dennis. They wanted to know if trading could be taught. Eckhardt was skeptical, but Dennis believed it could. They trained two cohorts in 1983–84 on a systematic trend-following approach and funded them to trade real money. The results showed that yes, rules can be taught, and several of the Turtles went on to long careers running their own firms. Some went on to become highly successful, but of the roughly two dozen who started, only a few continued trading professionally and remained profitable over time. The difference wasn’t in the rules themselves, but in how well each trader managed risk and emotion when the system inevitably stopped feeling comfortable.
The success rate looks worse in the broader market. Fewer than ten percent of traders make money consistently, and without a defined process the number drops to one or two percent. Trading is not about being right, it’s not even about winning it large for a short period of time; it’s about staying in the game when the markets go against you, which they always eventually do, and that’s only possible when risk stays under control.
Remember, even the very best investors and traders in history have averaged around 20 percent annual returns. Chasing exaggerated claims and getting caught up in the hype of impossible performance will only lead to frustration, and put you in exactly the wrong mindset to make the right decisions.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC has not released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This week’s positioning data therefore reflects the last available report and data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 – United States: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• NASDAQ 100 – United States: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• DOW JONES – United States: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• MSCI EM – Emerging Markets: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• NASDAQ 100 – United States: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• CHF/USD – Swiss Franc: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• AU/USD – Gold: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• BTC/USD – Bitcoin: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• SILVER – United States: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• COPPER – United States: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• PLATINUM – United States: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• PALLADIUM – United States: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• IRON ORE 62% – China: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• NICKEL – LME United Kingdom: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• none
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• WHEAT – United States: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Sunday, November 9
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep)
• 22:40 🇯🇵 BoJ Board Member Nakagawa Speaks
Monday, November 10
• All Day: 🇰🇾 Holiday – Cayman Islands, Armistice Day in World War I
• 12:00 🇺🇸 WASDE Report
• 13:00 🇺🇸 3-Year Note Auction
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Adjusted Current Account (Sep)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Current Account n.s.a. (Sep)
• 19:01 🇬🇧 BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
• 21:00 🇳🇿 Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
Tuesday, November 11
• All Day: 🇵🇱 Holiday – Poland, Independence Day
• All Day: 🇷🇸 Holiday – Serbia, Armistice Day
• All Day: 🇨🇦 Holiday – Canada, Remembrance Day
• All Day: 🇧🇲 Holiday – Bermuda, Armistice Day
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Employment Change 3M/3M (Sep)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
• 03:30 🇨🇳 New Loans (Oct)
• 05:00 🇩🇪 German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov)
• 05:00 🇩🇪 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Home Loans (MoM) (Q3)
• 22:25 🇺🇸 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Wednesday, November 12
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 05:00 🛢️ OPEC Monthly Report
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Eurogroup Meetings
• 05:30 🇮🇳 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 07:05 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Building Permits (MoM) (Sep)
• 09:20 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 10:20 🇺🇸 Fed Governor Waller Speaks
• 12:00 🇺🇸 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 12:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 13:00 🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 16:45 🇳🇿 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 19:01 🇬🇧 RICS House Price Balance (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Employment Change (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Full Employment Change (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate (Oct)
Thursday, November 13
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Trade Balance (Sep)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:30 🇨🇭 PPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 04:00 🛢️ IEA Monthly Report
• 04:00 🇵🇱 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 04:00 🇵🇱 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 ECB Economic Bulletin
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
• 07:00 🇬🇧 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 13:00 🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance (Oct)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
• 16:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (Oct)
• 21:00 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)
• 21:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
• 21:00 🇨🇳 Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 23:00 🇲🇾 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
Friday, November 14
• 01:30 🇮🇳 WPI Inflation (YoY) (Oct)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 03:00 🇪🇸 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 EU Economic Forecasts
• 05:00 🇪🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 09:20 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
• 15:55 🇷🇺 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 15:56 🇷🇺 CPI (YoY) (Oct)
Earnings on our radar this week:
Monday, November 10
• Sony $6758 JP – Technology 🇯🇵
• Oil & Natural Gas Corporation $ONGC IN – Energy 🇮🇳
• Tyson Foods $TSN US – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Subaru Corporation $7270 JP – Consumer 🇯🇵
• Sumitomo Metal Mining $5713 JP – Materials 🇯🇵
• Dillard’s $DDS US – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Turkish Airlines $THYAO TI – Industrials 🇹🇷
• Nissan Chemical $4021 JP – Materials 🇯🇵
• Tidewater $TDW US – Energy 🇺🇸
• Freehold Royalties $FRU CN – Energy 🇨🇦
Tuesday, November 11
• SoftBank Group $9984 JP – Technology 🇯🇵
• AngloGold Ashanti $ANG SJ – Materials 🇿🇦
• Occidental Petroleum $OXY US – Energy 🇺🇸
• Kawasaki Heavy Industries $7012 JP – Industrials 🇯🇵
• Tüpraş $TUPRS TI – Energy 🇹🇷
Wednesday, November 12
• Cisco Systems $CSCO US – Technology 🇺🇸
• Bayer $BAYN GR – Healthcare 🇩🇪
• Tata Steel $TATA IN – Materials 🇮🇳
• ENEOS Holdings (JX) $5020 JP – Energy 🇯🇵
• Pan American Silver $PAAS CN – Materials 🇨🇦
• Isuzu Motors $7202 JP – Industrials 🇯🇵
• NuVista Energy $NVA CN – Energy 🇨🇦
• Helmerich & Payne $HP US – Energy 🇺🇸
Thursday, November 13
• Tencent Holdings $700 HK – Technology 🇭🇰
• Alibaba $BABA CH – Technology 🇨🇳
• Siemens $SIE GR – Industrials 🇩🇪
• Walt Disney $DIS US – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• Applied Materials $AMAT US – Technology 🇺🇸
• Merck Group $MRK GR – Healthcare 🇩🇪
• JD.com $JD CH – Consumer 🇨🇳
• Grupo ACS $ACS SM – Industrials 🇪🇸
• Inpex $1605 JP – Energy 🇯🇵
• Woodward $WWD US – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Endeavour Mining $EDV CN – Materials 🇨🇦
• ESCO Technologies $ESE US – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Brady Corporation $BRC US – Industrials 🇺🇸
• QinetiQ Group $QQ LN – Industrials 🇬🇧
• Peyto Exploration $PEY CN – Energy 🇨🇦
• Canadian Energy Services $CEU CN – Energy 🇨🇦
• Premier Foods $PFD LN – Consumer 🇬🇧
Friday, November 14
• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial $8306 JP – Financials 🇯🇵
• Allianz $ALV GR – Financials 🇩🇪
• Sumitomo Mitsui Financial $8316 JP – Financials 🇯🇵
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
