Markets Update – May 4, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do.”
Richard Dennis
From his interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989
Straight to the markets this week. I usually begin with some practical, general thoughts on investing and trading, but I’ve decided those are better suited as standalone short articles I’ll publish from now on.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
Talking about expecting the extremes in this business, we just had one of the fastest and steepest recoveries in US markets in history. I wish I had leaned more to the long side, but everything looks easy in hindsight, and the news that forced this rally was pretty wild, to say the least.
The question is where we go from here. It sure seems like everyone is already in, so we may pause or correct, but I won’t be playing that. My system keeps me from shorting panics like we saw in March, and more importantly, it also never allows me to fight uptrends.
Still, while the US is making new all-time highs, the same can’t be said about other developed markets yet, something I’m watching right now. As for growth markets (I like that term better than the old “emerging” label), they’re doing well. Personally, I’m staying long Brazil. I entered after the April tariff crash last year and will hold as long as the trend is intact.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
One of my biggest surprises was that the dollar didn’t rip way higher on the oil spike. It tried to breach 100 on the
during the hot Iran war phase, but then rejected.
It’s still correlated to oil, but the fiscal backdrop, the new Fed, and the shift toward short-end debt, the so-called Treasury QE, may be winning for now. In any case, narratives aside, we’ll follow the trends first.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend ➝ sideways
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: neutral ➝ positive
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The relative strength of industrial metals over precious metals continues. The energy crisis will have a significant impact on future supply.
As for demand, much will depend on the government’s reaction. Governments are now driving economies to a greater extent than in the last three decades.
You know what I expect: more debt, more spending, and a push toward industrial buildout. We’re long, but as always, the markets will tell us when the moves are exhausted and it’s time to get out.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE 62% – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
No secret, it’s all about the Iran war now. Every day oil & gas flows from the region are impacted, and the longer it drags on, the more time it will take to recover production. For now we’re running on reserves, but if they run out we’ll enter an entirely new phase where serious rationing spreads to the developed economies as well.
As for me, I’m long $COAL. It just might be a silent winner in this whole situation. Energy should always be a strategic priority, but it wasn’t. That’s changing right now. I’m also watching natural gas for a long entry. It may take some time, but let’s remember: it’s usually a good idea to buy cheap when the trend is changing.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Energy up, yields up, bonds down. It’s as simple as that for now. It doesn’t have to be this way, but the markets are anticipating the obvious government reaction, which is almost always more debt and more money creation leading to inflation. I stay away from any longs here.
What’s interesting is Japan. Their 10-year yields have just reached 2.5 percent, up almost 1 percent in the last six months. That’s a level much higher than before the GFC, and it sure seems like they’ve given up on capping them at any particular level. I’m also watching UK yields. They’re breaking out too and may put pressure on the country’s fiscal situation. But really, you can find a similar situation in many other developed economies.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
One of the most interesting places to be right now. The impact of the energy and fertilizer crisis is just beginning to show up in the prices. Let’s hope the conflict ends soon, but even in the case of peace tomorrow the damage is already done.
I’m long, with a core position in $DBA, and I trade individual agricultural commodities as well. We’ve already been doing quite well in wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, and soybean oil. As for specific new setups I’m seeing right now, they are rice, sugar, and orange juice.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
This wraps up update number eighty-five, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with updated trend tables, signals, and highlights for the week.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 4–8, 2026
Monday, May 4
Economic Events
• 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 China & Japan markets closed – Labor Day / Greenery Day
• 🇬🇧 UK markets closed – Early May Bank Holiday
• 09:15 🇪🇸 Spain Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 09:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 09:45 🇮🇹 Italy Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 09:50 🇫🇷 France Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 09:55 🇩🇪 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders MoM (Mar)
Earnings – Energy
• $FANG (NASDAQ) Diamondback Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $CTRA (NASDAQ) Coterra Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $CQP (NYSE) Cheniere Partners – Energy / LNG Infrastructure 🇺🇸
• $WMB (NYSE) Williams Companies – Energy / Natural Gas Midstream 🇺🇸
• $RIG (NYSE) Transocean – Energy / Offshore Drilling 🇺🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $GMEXICOB (BMV) Grupo Mexico – Materials / Copper, Silver & Zinc Mining 🇲🇽
• $LYC (ASX) Lynas Rare Earths – Materials / Rare Earth Mining & Processing 🇦🇺
• $NXE (NYSE / TSX) NexGen Energy – Energy / Uranium Development 🇨🇦
• $ERO (NYSE / TSX) Ero Copper – Materials / Copper & Gold Mining 🇨🇦
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $TSN (NYSE) Tyson Foods – Consumer Staples / Protein Processing 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $PLTR (NYSE) Palantir Technologies – Technology / AI & Data 🇺🇸
• $NAB (ASX) National Australia Bank – Financials / Banking 🇦🇺
Tuesday, May 5
Economic Events
• 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 China, Japan & South Korea markets closed
• 06:30 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement – cut to 3.85% expected
• 08:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland CPI MoM (Apr)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Trade Balance (Mar)
• 14:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 14:30 🇺🇸 US Trade Balance (Mar)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (Apr)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Mar)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
Earnings – Energy
• $SU (NYSE / TSX) Suncor Energy – Energy / Integrated Oil Sands 🇨🇦
• $EOG (NYSE) EOG Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $DVN (NYSE) Devon Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $OXY (NYSE) Occidental Petroleum – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $MPC (NYSE) Marathon Petroleum – Energy / Refining 🇺🇸
• $MPLX (NYSE) MPLX – Energy / Midstream 🇺🇸
• $CRC (NYSE) California Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $CRK (NYSE) Comstock Resources – Energy / Natural Gas E&P 🇺🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $PAAS (NYSE / TSX) Pan American Silver – Materials / Gold & Silver Mining 🇨🇦
• $HL (NYSE) Hecla Mining – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇺🇸
• $SSRM (NASDAQ / TSX) SSR Mining – Materials / Gold & Silver Mining 🇨🇦
• $IMG (NYSE / TSX) IAMGold – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦
• $CCO (NYSE / TSX) Cameco – Energy / Uranium Mining 🇨🇦
• $BTU (NYSE) Peabody Energy – Energy / Thermal & Metallurgical Coal 🇺🇸
• $TATA (BSE) Tata Steel – Materials / Integrated Steel 🇮🇳
Earnings – Agriculture & Commodities
• $CTVA (NYSE) Corteva – Materials / Crop Protection & Seeds 🇺🇸
• $ADM (NYSE) Archer-Daniels-Midland – Consumer Staples / Grain & Commodity Processing 🇺🇸
• $AGCO (NYSE) AGCO Corporation – Industrials / Agricultural Equipment 🇺🇸
• $ANDE (NASDAQ) The Andersons – Materials / Grain Trading & Fertilizers 🇺🇸
• $FDP (NYSE) Fresh Del Monte Produce – Consumer Staples / Fresh Produce 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $HSBA (NYSE / LSE) HSBC Holdings – Financials / Banking 🇬🇧
• $AMD (NASDAQ) Advanced Micro Devices – Technology / Semiconductors & AI 🇺🇸
• $SHOP (NYSE / TSX) Shopify – Technology / E-Commerce 🇨🇦
• $PFE (NYSE) Pfizer – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸
• $KKR (NYSE) KKR – Financials / Alternative Asset Management 🇺🇸
• $CMI (NYSE) Cummins – Industrials / Engines & Power 🇺🇸
Wednesday, May 6
Economic Events
• 🇯🇵 Japan markets closed – Constitution Day
• 03:45 🇨🇳 China Caixin Services PMI (Apr)
• 09:15–10:30 🇪🇺 / 🇬🇧 Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain & UK Services & Composite PMI (Apr)
• 14:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• 16:00 🇨🇦 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 19:21 🇵🇱 Poland Interest Rate Decision
Earnings – Energy
• $TOU (TSX) Tourmaline Oil – Energy / Natural Gas E&P 🇨🇦
• $APA (NASDAQ) APA Corporation – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $MTDR (NASDAQ) Matador Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $MUR (NYSE) Murphy Oil – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $SM (NYSE) SM Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸
• $HP (NYSE) Helmerich & Payne – Energy / Contract Drilling 🇺🇸
• $VET (NYSE / TSX) Vermilion Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $IVN (TSX) Ivanhoe Mines – Materials / Copper, Zinc & Platinum Group Mining 🇨🇦
• $RGLD (NASDAQ) Royal Gold – Materials / Gold Royalty & Streaming 🇺🇸
• $BTO (NYSE / TSX) B2Gold – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦
• $TXG (TSX) Torex Gold Resources – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦
• $TKO (TSX / LSE) Taseko Mines – Materials / Copper Mining 🇨🇦
• $ALB (NYSE) Albemarle – Materials / Lithium & Specialty Chemicals 🇺🇸
• $LUN (TSX / Nasdaq Stockholm) Lundin Mining – Materials / Copper, Zinc & Gold 🇨🇦
• $CDE (NYSE) Coeur Mining – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇺🇸
• $FSM (NYSE / TSX) Fortuna Mining – Materials / Gold & Silver Mining 🇨🇦
Earnings – Agriculture & Fertilizers
• $NTR (NYSE / TSX) Nutrien – Materials / Potash & Nitrogen Fertilizers 🇨🇦
• $CF (NYSE) CF Industries – Materials / Nitrogen Fertilizers 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $DIS (NYSE) Walt Disney – Communication Services / Media & Streaming 🇺🇸
• $UBER (NYSE) Uber Technologies – Technology / Mobility & Delivery 🇺🇸
• $UCG (Euronext Milan) UniCredit – Financials / Banking 🇮🇹
• $SNAP (NYSE) Snap – Communication Services / Social Media 🇺🇸
Thursday, May 7
Economic Events
• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia Trade Balance (Mar)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders MoM (Mar)
• 09:30 🇸🇪 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision
• 10:00 🇳🇴 Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
• 10:30 🇬🇧 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 2)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q1)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs QoQ (Q1)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending MoM (Mar)
• 21:00 🇲🇽 Mexico Interest Rate Decision
Earnings – Energy
• $RDSA (NYSE / AMS) Shell – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇳🇱
• $CNQ (NYSE / TSX) Canadian Natural Resources – Energy / Oil Sands & Natural Gas 🇨🇦
• $BTE (NYSE / TSX) Baytex Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦
• $TRGP (NYSE) Targa Resources – Energy / Natural Gas Midstream 🇺🇸
• $LNG (NYSE) Cheniere Energy – Energy / LNG Export 🇺🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $WPM (NYSE / TSX) Wheaton Precious Metals – Materials / Precious Metals Streaming 🇨🇦
• $GFI (NYSE / JSE) Gold Fields – Materials / Gold Mining 🇿🇦
Earnings – Other
• $MCD (NYSE) McDonald’s – Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants 🇺🇸
• $GILD (NASDAQ) Gilead Sciences – Healthcare / Biotech 🇺🇸
• $MNST (NASDAQ) Monster Beverage – Consumer Staples / Beverages 🇺🇸
• $ABNB (NASDAQ) Airbnb – Consumer Discretionary / Travel 🇺🇸
• $COIN (NASDAQ) Coinbase Global – Financials / Crypto Exchange 🇺🇸
• $RHM (Xetra) Rheinmetall – Industrials / Defence & Armaments 🇩🇪
Friday, May 8
Economic Events
• 02:30 🇯🇵 Japan S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Trade Balance (Mar)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production MoM (Mar)
• 09:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 14:20 🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Participation Rate (Apr)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Unemployment Rate & Employment Change (Apr)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Expectations & Inflation Expectations (May)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Earnings – Energy
• $ENB (NYSE / TSX) Enbridge – Energy / Pipelines & Energy Infrastructure 🇨🇦
• $YPF (NYSE / BYMA) YPF – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇦🇷
• $PAA (NASDAQ) Plains All American Pipeline – Energy / Crude Oil Midstream 🇺🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $ANG (NYSE / JSE) AngloGold Ashanti – Materials / Gold Mining 🇿🇦
Earnings – Other
• $ISP (Euronext Milan) Intesa Sanpaolo – Financials / Banking 🇮🇹
• $ENB (NYSE / TSX) Enbridge – Energy / Pipelines 🇨🇦
• $7974 (TSE) Nintendo – Technology / Gaming 🇯🇵
• $9432 (TSE) Nippon Telegraph & Telephone – Communication Services / Telecom 🇯🇵
• $2914 (TSE) Japan Tobacco – Consumer Staples / Tobacco 🇯🇵
• $CBK (Xetra) Commerzbank – Financials / Banking 🇩🇪
• $IAG (LSE / BME) International Airlines Group – Industrials / Airlines 🇪🇸
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com