Markets Update – May 25, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Unless you learn to completely accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome, you will try either consciously or unconsciously to avoid any possibility you define as painful.”
Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude, 2001
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
US markets are holding strong after the record surge that started in early April. Shorts were squeezed, managed and passive money went full long, reminding us again that flows are a decisive factor these days, regardless of the fundamentals.
If this strength continues I would not be surprised if we’d see summer rotation to small caps and the Dow Jones, they continue to show positive COT, meaning they’re both in uptrends but not crowded at all.
The US divergence is still the defining feature. Developed markets are following, but they didn’t go up nearly as high and are yet to make new all-time highs. Emerging / growth markets like Korea and Taiwan are in mania phase, while India is weak and China outright broke down again.
In any case, you know my system by now. I won’t sell or short uptrends. I’m not particularly long general equities at the moment, and in the positions I hold, I will stay until the trend is intact.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
One of my biggest surprises was that the dollar didn’t rip way higher on the oil spike. It tried to breach 100 on the DXY during the hot Iran war phase but got rejected. I thought about it for longer, it might very well be that nobody believed then that the conflict could last.
Initially they were right. When the ceasefire was announced, the dollar sold off. Since then we had new “deals” every few days, usually before market open (what a surprise). And so, it really started to bounce two weeks ago. Maybe the energy crisis dynamics are finally winning and overcoming the fiscal backdrop, Fed easing, and the shift toward short-end debt.
The medium-term trend still hasn’t confirmed a new dollar uptrend, so there’s no real conviction in either direction yet. In any case, narratives aside, we follow the trends above anything else.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways ➝ downtrend
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ downtrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend ➝ sideways
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: neutral ➝ negative
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The relative strength of industrial over precious metals continues. Silver had a nice spike, only to get a sharp correction, same goes for platinum. We’ll just have to wait and see when this consolidation is concluded.
What is happening right now is the battle between supply, which is inevitably impacted by the energy crisis that may stay with us for longer. As to demand, it’s also severely impacted, but much will depend on the government’s reaction.
And governments are now driving economies to a greater extent than in the last three decades. You know what I expect: more debt, more spending, and a push toward industrial buildout.
We’re long, but as always, the markets will tell us when the moves are exhausted and it’s time to get out.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
Crude has paused later last week on yet another deal news, it’d be ridiculous if it wasn’t so serious. Still, it is what it is, it’s about the Iran war now.
Every day, oil and gas flows from the region are impacted, and the longer it drags on, the more time it will take to recover production. For now we’re running on reserves, but if they run out we’ll enter an entirely new phase.
As for me, I’ve been long oil for some time now and nat gas only recently. Also long coal. It may take some time, but let’s remember: it’s usually a good idea to buy cheap and stay with the trend.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Energy / oil up, yields up, bonds down. Energy / oil down, yields down, bonds up. It’s as simple as that for now. It doesn’t have to be this way, but the markets are anticipating the obvious government reaction to any crisis, which is almost always more debt and more money creation leading to inflation. I stay away from any longs here.
What’s interesting is Japan. Their 10-year yields reached 2.7 percent, and did not pull back last week. Yields are now higher than before the GFC, and they’ve clearly given up on capping them.
I’m also watching UK yields, and political situation there. But really, you can find a similar situation in many other developed economies.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
Let’s start with the most important short-term dynamic: oil. It’s almost certain we’ll see a broader pullback in agricultural commodities if a true improvement in the Gulf is achieved. But that’s it, I think it’ll be just a short-term reaction as speculative money leaves the sector, and it will be volatile.
The real story is that the long-term impact of the energy and fertilizer crisis is just beginning to show up in the prices. Even in the case of peace tomorrow the damage is already done. I’m long with a core position in DBA and trade a wide variety of single ones as well.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 25–29, 2026
Monday, May 25
Economic Events
• 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇮🇸 Many markets closed – Memorial Day (US), Spring Bank Holiday (UK), Pentecost / Whit Monday (Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Hungary)
• 07:00 🇸🇬 Singapore CPI YoY & Core CPI YoY (Apr)
Earnings – Agriculture
• $SMTO3 (B3) São Martinho – Consumer Staples / Sugar & Ethanol Production Brazil 🇧🇷
Tuesday, May 26
Economic Events
• 07:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Core CPI YoY
• 15:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 MoM & YoY (Mar)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (May)
Earnings – Energy
• $ONGC (BSE) Oil & Natural Gas Corporation – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas India 🇮🇳
Wednesday, May 27
Economic Events
• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia CPI YoY (Q2) + Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q2)
• 04:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement & Monetary Policy Statement
• 14:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr)
• 19:00 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $CIA (ASX) Champion Iron – Materials / Iron Ore Mining Canada/Australia 🇨🇦
Earnings – Agriculture
• $UVV (NYSE) Universal Corporation – Consumer Staples / Leaf Tobacco Processing & Trading 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $CRM (NYSE) Salesforce – Technology / CRM & Cloud Software 🇺🇸
• $PDD (NASDAQ) PDD Holdings – Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce China 🇨🇳
• $BNS (NYSE / TSX) Scotiabank – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦
• $BMO (TSX) Bank of Montreal – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦
• $NA (TSX) National Bank of Canada – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦
• $HPQ (NYSE) HP Inc – Technology / Personal Computing 🇺🇸
Thursday, May 28
Economic Events
• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia Private New Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 GDP QoQ Final (Q1)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending MoM (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders MoM & Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims
• 14:10 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Apr)
• 15:00 🇿🇦 South Africa Interest Rate Decision
• 16:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (Apr)
• 18:00 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Current Account (Q1)
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $HRL (NYSE) Hormel Foods – Consumer Staples / Protein & Packaged Foods 🇺🇸
Earnings – Materials & Metals
• $JMAT (LSE) Johnson Matthey – Materials / Platinum Group Metals & Specialty Chemicals 🇬🇧
Earnings – Energy & Utilities
• $SSE (LSE) SSE – Utilities / Power Generation & Distribution UK 🇬🇧
Earnings – Other
• $RY (NYSE / TSX) Royal Bank of Canada – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦
• $TD (NYSE / TSX) TD Bank – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦
• $CM (NYSE / TSX) CIBC – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦
• $DELL (NYSE) Dell Technologies – Technology / PCs, Servers & AI Infrastructure 🇺🇸
• $ADSK (NASDAQ) Autodesk – Technology / Design & Engineering Software 🇺🇸
• $LULU (NASDAQ) Lululemon Athletica – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel 🇨🇦
• $DLTR (NASDAQ) Dollar Tree – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸
Friday, May 29
Economic Events
• 01:30 🇯🇵 Tokyo Core CPI YoY (May)
• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production MoM (Apr)
• 08:45 🇫🇷 France CPI MoM & HICP MoM (May) + GDP QoQ & YoY Final (Q1) + Consumer Spending MoM (Apr)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)
• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spain CPI YoY & HICP YoY (May)
• 09:55 🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Rate & Change (May)
• 14:00 🇩🇪 Germany CPI MoM & YoY (May)
• 13:00 🇧🇷 Brazil GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada GDP QoQ, YoY, Annualized & MoM (Q1 / Mar)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (May)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Economic Events – Sunday May 31
• 03:30 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI & Composite PMI (May)