Markets Update – May 18, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your own personality and comfort level.” - Jack D. Schwager, Getting Started in Technical Analysis, 1999
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
The divergence is still the defining feature here. US strength is holding, even as the VIX wakes up. Developed markets are struggling to keep pace and have just lost their uptrend. Without South Korea and Taiwan, growth markets would look much the same.
You know my system by now. I won’t sell or short uptrends. I’m not particularly long general equities at the moment, and in the positions I hold, I will stay until the trend is intact.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
One of my biggest surprises was that the dollar didn’t rip way higher on the oil spike. It tried to breach 100 on the DXY during the hot Iran war phase but got rejected.
When the ceasefire was announced, the dollar sold off. It only really started to bounce last week. Maybe the energy crisis dynamics are finally winning, helped by the fiscal backdrop, Fed easing, and the shift toward short-end debt.
The medium-term trend still hasn’t confirmed a new dollar uptrend, so there’s no real conviction in either direction yet. In any case, narratives aside, we follow the trends above anything else.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend ➝ sideways
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend ➝ sideways
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ downtrend
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend ➝ sideways
• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend ➝ sideways
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend ➝ sideways
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways ➝ downtrend
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: negative ➝ neutral
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: positive ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The relative strength of industrial over precious metals continues. Silver had a nice spike, only to get a sharp correction on Friday with the markets. We’ll just have to wait and see when this consolidation is concluded.
What is happening right now is the battle between supply, which is inevitably impacted by the energy crisis that may stay with us for longer. As to demand, it’s also severely impacted, but much will depend on the government’s reaction.
And governments are now driving economies to a greater extent than in the last three decades. You know what I expect: more debt, more spending, and a push toward industrial buildout.
We’re long, but as always, the markets will tell us when the moves are exhausted and it’s time to get out.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
Crude oil is back to a short-term uptrend, and this week both crude and natural gas COT positioning turned positive. I’m taking note.
Still, no secret, it’s all about the Iran situation. Every day, oil and gas flows from the region are impacted, and the longer it drags on, the more time it will take to recover production. For now we’re running on reserves, but if they run out we’ll enter an entirely new phase.
As for me, I’ve been long oil for some time now and nat gas only recently. Also long coal. It may take some time, but let’s remember: it’s usually a good idea to buy cheap and stay with the trend.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Bonds crash is accelerating. Energy up, yields up, bonds down. It’s as simple as that for now. It doesn’t have to be this way, but the markets are anticipating the obvious government reaction, which is almost always more debt and more money creation leading to inflation. I stay away from any longs here.
What’s interesting is Japan. Their 10-year yields just reached 2.7 percent, higher than before the GFC, and they’ve clearly given up on capping them. The FOMC minutes this week will be dissected for any signal on the pace of the new Fed’s thinking.
I’m also watching UK yields, and political situation there. But really, you can find a similar situation in many other developed economies.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
One of the most interesting places to be right now, and for the foreseeable future. It’s also one of the most active sectors this week by signal count. Some grains are taking a pause. Corn, soybeans, and canola have all slipped from their uptrends. These are short-term dynamics, and they will remain volatile.
The true story is that the impact of the energy and fertilizer crisis is just beginning to show up in the prices. Let’s hope the conflict ends soon and Hormuz is opened, but even in the case of peace tomorrow the damage is already done. I’m long, with a core position in DBA, and I trade a wide variety of single ones.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 18–22, 2026
Monday, May 18
Economic Events
• 🇨🇦 Canada markets closed – Victoria Day
• 04:00 🇨🇳 China Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production YoY & Fixed Asset Investment YoY (Apr)
• 04:30 🇹🇭 Thailand GDP YoY (Q1)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 Switzerland GDP QoQ (Q1)
Earnings – Energy & Utilities
• $GTLS (NYSE) Chart Industries – Industrials / LNG & Energy Equipment 🇺🇸
• $NTPC (BSE) NTPC – Utilities / Coal & Thermal Power India 🇮🇳
• $SLR (BME) Solaria Energia – Utilities / Solar Energy Spain 🇪🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $TATA (BSE) Tata Steel – Materials / Integrated Steel India 🇮🇳
• $LYC (ASX) Lynas Rare Earths – Materials / Rare Earth Mining & Processing Australia 🇦🇺
Earnings – Other
• $BIDU (NASDAQ) Baidu – Technology / AI, Search & Cloud China 🇨🇳
Tuesday, May 19
Economic Events
• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan GDP QoQ, YoY & Price Index (Q1)
• 03:30 🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes
• 06:30 🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production MoM (Mar)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK Employment Change 3M/3M, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings & Claimant Count (Mar/Apr)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Trade Balance (Mar)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada CPI MoM & YoY + Core CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales MoM (Apr)
Earnings – Energy
• $IOCL (BSE) Indian Oil Corporation – Energy / Oil Refining & Distribution India 🇮🇳
Earnings – Other
• $HD (NYSE) Home Depot – Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement Retail 🇺🇸
Wednesday, May 20
Economic Events
• 03:00 🇨🇳 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y Decision (May)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK CPI MoM & YoY + PPI Input MoM (Apr)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany PPI MoM (Apr)
• 09:30 🇮🇩 Indonesia Interest Rate Decision
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI YoY, Core CPI YoY & MoM – Final (Apr)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 20:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors
• $NVDA (NASDAQ) Nvidia – Technology / AI Semiconductors & Data Centres 🇺🇸
• $ADI (NASDAQ) Analog Devices – Technology / Analog & Mixed-Signal Semiconductors 🇺🇸
Earnings – Energy
• $LPG (NYSE) Dorian LPG – Energy / LPG Shipping & Transport 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $TJX (NYSE) TJX Companies – Consumer Discretionary / Off-Price Retail 🇺🇸
• $LOW (NYSE) Lowe’s Companies – Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement 🇺🇸
• $TGT (NYSE) Target – Consumer Discretionary / Retail 🇺🇸
• $INTU (NASDAQ) Intuit – Technology / Financial Software 🇺🇸
Thursday, May 21
Economic Events
• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan Trade Balance, Exports YoY & Adjusted Trade Balance (Apr)
• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia Employment Change, Full Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 09:15 🇫🇷 France Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (May)
• 09:30 🇩🇪 Germany Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (May)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI Flash (May)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI Flash (May)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits & Housing Starts MoM (Apr)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI Flash (May)
Earnings – Agriculture & Industrials
• $WMT (NYSE) Walmart – Consumer Staples / Global Retail & Grocery 🇺🇸
• $DE (NYSE) Deere & Company – Industrials / Agricultural & Construction Equipment 🇺🇸
• $TATE (LSE) Tate & Lyle – Consumer Staples / Specialty Food Ingredients 🇬🇧
• $FLO (NYSE) Flowers Foods – Consumer Staples / Bread & Bakery Products 🇺🇸
Earnings – Materials & Metals
• $JMAT (LSE) Johnson Matthey – Materials / Platinum Group Metals & Specialty Chemicals 🇬🇧
Earnings – Energy
• $GAIL (BSE) GAIL India – Energy / Natural Gas Distribution & Pipelines 🇮🇳
Earnings – Other
• $NTES (NASDAQ) NetEase – Technology / Gaming & Cloud China 🇨🇳
• $ROST (NASDAQ) Ross Stores – Consumer Discretionary / Off-Price Retail 🇺🇸
• $WDAY (NASDAQ) Workday – Technology / HR & Finance Cloud Software 🇺🇸
• $G (Euronext Milan) Assicurazioni Generali – Financials / Insurance Italy 🇮🇹
• $BTA (LSE) BT Group – Communication Services / Telecom 🇬🇧
Friday, May 22
Economic Events
• 01:30 🇯🇵 Japan National CPI MoM & Core CPI YoY (Apr)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany GDP QoQ & YoY Final (Q1)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 GfK German Consumer Climate (Jun)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales MoM & YoY + Core Retail Sales (Apr)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (May)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales MoM (Mar)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Expectations & Inflation Expectations Final (May)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 US Leading Index MoM (Apr)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Earnings – Materials & Mining
• $HNDL (BSE) Hindalco Industries – Materials / Aluminium & Copper India 🇮🇳
Earnings – Other
• $3690 (HKEX) Meituan – Consumer Discretionary / Food Delivery & Local Services China 🇨🇳
• $BAH (NYSE) Booz Allen Hamilton – Industrials / Defence & Government Consulting 🇺🇸
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com