Markets Update – May 11, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“The correct approach is to say: This structure means up, and this structure means up no more, but never that this structure means up this much and no more.”
Richard Dennis, interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
US markets keep finding ways to surprise. Led by tech, they have reached new all-time highs following one of the fastest recoveries in history. Now the question everyone is asking is how much further this can go.
The truth is, there is no answer to that, even if it was the right question. As long as the structure points up, I will not be selling or shorting this. My system doesn’t allow me to fight uptrends. What I’d rather be looking at is the volatility. It is often the early signal of where we reach an exhaustion phase and potential reversal.
Divergence is interesting here as well. US markets are at new highs, but developed markets outside the US are still not there. What is running is South Korea, almost in melt-up fashion, with Taiwan and Japan also doing extremely well.
The Hang Seng just upgraded to a medium-term uptrend this week, which is notable. Growth markets continue to perform well. I remain long Brazil. I entered after the April tariff crash, and the trend is intact.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
It’s still all about the dollar here, and it has now flipped to a medium-term downtrend as well. What is remarkable is that this happened against the backdrop of an active oil shock and a geopolitical conflict that would historically have sent the dollar much higher. It tried to breach 100 on the $DXY during the peak Iran war phase but got rejected. That rejection matters.
The fiscal backdrop, the new Fed expectations, and the shift toward short-end debt issuance are doing real work here. If we break support on the $DXY, then the direction of travel for the dollar is lower. In any case, we follow the trends first, and for now the trend is not the dollar’s friend.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways ➝ downtrend
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: downtrend ➝ sideways
• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ uptrend
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: neutral ➝ positive
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: positive ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Silver flipped again to a short-term uptrend this week and the COT turned positive, which is worth noting. Platinum is recovering from its recent weakness, upgrading back to a medium-term uptrend. Iron ore and zinc are both picking up short-term strength.
The broader thesis here has not changed. Industrial metals remain a direct beneficiary of the government spending supercycle that is unfolding, accelerated by the energy and defence buildout. Supply side pressures from the energy crisis are real and not going away quickly. We are long, and the trend structure across most of this complex continues to support that.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
Crude has paused short-term, moving from uptrend to sideways, no wonder given the reserves being released at historically fast pace and constant flow of news to smash it down at every corner. In any case, the reality will eventually prevail.
Natural gas is the one to watch right now. It has been building a base and this week flipped back to a short-term uptrend. It may still take time, and by time it may be year plus, but buying cheap with a changing trend is usually the right approach, and the structural setup in natural gas is compelling given where reserves and infrastructure investment stand.
Coal remains in both short and medium-term uptrend. It is the quiet winner in all of this. Energy was never treated as the strategic priority it always should have been. That is changing fast, and the market is just starting to price it accordingly.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Nothing changed in the trend structure this week, which in itself tells a story. All maturities remain in medium and short-term downtrend across the board, and there is no signal that is about to shift. Energy prices staying elevated means inflation expectations stay elevated, and that keeps yields under pressure.
Japan’s 10-year yield is now around 2.5 percent. That is a level not seen since before the global financial crisis, and they appear to have completely abandoned any effort to cap it. UK yields are breaking out too. This is not a US-only story. It is a global story, and the direction is the same almost everywhere. I stay away from any longs in bonds.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The underlying thesis remains very much in place. The energy and fertilizer crisis is feeding through into production costs, and that takes time to show up in prices fully.
The core $DBA position stays. We have also done well in many individual longs. These require much more active trading, new opportunities are constantly building, running and then shifting. I expect this to be one of the more interesting areas to trade through the rest of the year, and beyond.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 11–15, 2026
Monday, May 11
Economic Events
• 03:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals MoM (Mar)
• 03:30 🇨🇳 CPI MoM & YoY + PPI YoY (Apr)
• 09:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Mar)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Apr)
Earnings – Energy
• $CEG (NASDAQ) Constellation Energy – Utilities / Nuclear & Clean Energy 🇺🇸
• $PBR (NYSE / B3) Petrobras – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇧🇷
• $KOS (LSE) Kosmos Energy – Energy / Offshore Oil & Gas E&P 🇬🇧
• $TCW (TSX) Trican Well Service – Energy / Oilfield Services 🇨🇦
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $5713 (TSE) Sumitomo Metal Mining – Materials / Copper, Nickel & Gold Mining 🇯🇵
• $NDA (Xetra) Aurubis – Materials / Copper Smelting & Refining 🇩🇪
• $MOS (NYSE) Mosaic – Materials / Phosphate & Potash Fertilizers 🇺🇸
Earnings – Agriculture
• $UPLL (BSE) UPL – Materials / Agrochemicals & Crop Protection 🇮🇳
Earnings – Other
• $FOX (NASDAQ) Fox Corporation – Communication Services / Media 🇺🇸
Tuesday, May 12
Economic Events
• 01:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending MoM & YoY (Mar)
• 03:30 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Apr)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 08:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland PPI MoM (Apr)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)
• 11:00 🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment & Current Conditions (May)
• 12:30 🇮🇳 India CPI YoY (Apr)
• 14:00 🇧🇷 Brazil CPI YoY (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 CPI MoM & YoY + Core CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 18:00 🇺🇸 WASDE – World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (May)
• 18:00 🇺🇸 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (May)
Earnings – Energy
• $ENR (Xetra) Siemens Energy – Energy / Power Equipment & Grid Technology 🇩🇪
• $PEY (TSX) Peyto Exploration – Energy / Natural Gas E&P 🇨🇦
• $PXT (TSX) Parex Resources – Energy / Oil E&P Colombia 🇨🇦
• $EGY (LSE) VAALCO Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇬🇧
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $FNV (NYSE / TSX) Franco-Nevada – Materials / Gold & Silver Royalty & Streaming 🇨🇦
• $TKA (Xetra) Thyssenkrupp – Materials / Steel & Industrial Manufacturing 🇩🇪
Earnings – Agriculture
• $BAYN (Xetra) Bayer – Healthcare & Agriculture / Crop Science & Pharma 🇩🇪
• $AG (NYSE / TSX) First Majestic Silver – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇨🇦
Earnings – Other
• $CBA (ASX) Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Financials / Banking 🇦🇺
• $MUV2 (Xetra) Munich Re – Financials / Reinsurance 🇩🇪
• $7011 (TSE) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries – Industrials / Defence & Energy Equipment 🇯🇵
• $VOD (NASDAQ / LSE) Vodafone – Communication Services / Telecom 🇬🇧
• $JD (NASDAQ / HKEX) JD.com – Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce 🇨🇳
• $SE (NYSE) Sea Limited – Technology / E-Commerce, Gaming & FinTech 🇸🇬
Wednesday, May 13
Economic Events
• 🇸🇪 Sweden – Early close at 13:00 (Ascension Day eve)
• 03:30 🇦🇺 Wage Price Index QoQ (Q1)
• 05:00 🇳🇿 New Zealand Inflation Expectations QoQ (Q2)
• 08:00 🇸🇪 Sweden CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 08:45 🇫🇷 France CPI MoM & HICP MoM (Apr)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Industrial Production MoM (Mar)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
• 12:00 🇺🇸 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
• 14:30 🇺🇸 PPI MoM & Core PPI MoM (Apr)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings – Energy
• $1605 (TSE) Inpex Corporation – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P Japan 🇯🇵
• $SRG (Euronext Milan) Snam – Energy / Natural Gas Infrastructure Italy 🇮🇹
• $FRU (TSX) Freehold Royalties – Energy / Oil & Gas Royalties Canada 🇨🇦
• $NPI (TSX) Northland Power – Utilities / Offshore Wind & Renewables Canada 🇨🇦
• $RWE (Xetra) RWE – Utilities / Renewables & Gas Germany 🇩🇪
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $FMG (ASX) Fortescue – Materials / Iron Ore Mining Australia 🇦🇺
• $5401 (TSE) Nippon Steel – Materials / Integrated Steel Japan 🇯🇵
• $5706 (TSE) Mitsui Mining & Smelting – Materials / Copper & Zinc Smelting Japan 🇯🇵
Earnings – Agriculture
• $SLCE3 (B3) SLC Agrícola – Materials / Grain & Cotton Farming Brazil 🇧🇷
Earnings – Other
• $700 (HKEX) Tencent Holdings – Technology / Gaming, Cloud & AI 🇨🇳
• $BABA (NYSE / HKEX) Alibaba – Technology / E-Commerce & Cloud 🇨🇳
• $SIE (Xetra) Siemens – Industrials / Automation & Infrastructure 🇩🇪
• $DTE (Xetra) Deutsche Telekom – Communication Services / Telecom 🇩🇪
• $ALV (Xetra) Allianz – Financials / Insurance 🇩🇪
• $CSCO (NASDAQ) Cisco Systems – Technology / Networking & Cybersecurity 🇺🇸
• $TSEM (NASDAQ / TASE) Tower Semiconductor – Technology / Analog & Mixed-Signal Semiconductors 🇮🇱
• $BIRK (NYSE) Birkenstock – Consumer Discretionary / Footwear 🇩🇪
Thursday, May 14
Economic Events
• 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇩🇰 🇫🇮 🇮🇸 🇸🇪 🇧🇼 Many European & Asian markets closed – Ascension Day
• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK GDP QoQ, YoY & MoM + Industrial & Manufacturing Production + Business Investment (Q1 / Mar)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK Trade Balance & Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)
• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spain CPI YoY & HICP YoY (Apr)
• 09:30 🇵🇱 Poland GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1)
• 11:00 🇨🇳 China New Loans (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales MoM (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Import & Export Price Index MoM (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Retail Control MoM (Apr)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Mar)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Business Inventories MoM (Mar)
Earnings – Energy
• $5020 (TSE) JX Holdings – Energy / Petroleum Refining, Copper & Metals Japan 🇯🇵
• $KEY (TSX) Keyera – Energy / Natural Gas Midstream Canada 🇨🇦
• $GAIL (BSE) GAIL India – Energy / Natural Gas Distribution & Transmission 🇮🇳
• $CSAN3 (B3) Cosan – Energy & Agriculture / Sugar, Ethanol, Gas & Logistics Brazil 🇧🇷
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $JSTL (BSE) JSW Steel – Materials / Integrated Steel India 🇮🇳
Earnings – Agriculture
• $MRFG3 (B3) Marfrig – Consumer Staples / Beef Processing Brazil 🇧🇷
• $DE (NYSE) Deere & Company – Industrials / Agricultural & Construction Equipment 🇺🇸
Earnings – Technology
• $AMAT (NASDAQ) Applied Materials – Technology / Semiconductor Equipment 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $NG (LSE) National Grid – Utilities / Energy Infrastructure 🇬🇧
• $7267 (TSE) Honda Motor – Consumer Discretionary / Autos & Motorcycles 🇯🇵
• $TEF (BME) Telefónica – Communication Services / Telecom 🇪🇸
• $TTMT (BSE) Tata Motors – Consumer Discretionary / Autos & EVs 🇮🇳
• $BRBY (LSE) Burberry – Consumer Discretionary / Luxury Apparel 🇬🇧
• $NU (NYSE) Nu Holdings – Financials / Digital Banking 🇧🇷
• $VIK (NYSE) Viking – Consumer Discretionary / Cruises & Travel 🇳🇴
• $KLRN (NASDAQ) Klarna – Financials / Buy Now Pay Later 🇸🇪
Friday, May 15
Economic Events
• 06:00 🇲🇾 Malaysia GDP YoY (Q1)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 ECB Economic Bulletin
• 14:15 🇨🇦 Canada Housing Starts (Apr)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)
• 15:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Earnings – Other
• $8306 (TSE) Mitsubishi UFJ Financial – Financials / Banking Japan 🇯🇵
• $8411 (TSE) Mizuho Financial – Financials / Banking Japan 🇯🇵
• $NTPC (BSE) NTPC – Utilities / Coal & Thermal Power India 🇮🇳
• $ROLL (NASDAQ) RBC Bearings – Industrials / Precision Components 🇺🇸
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com