Markets Update – March 9, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum drawdown. Hopefully, I spend the rest of the day enjoying positions that are going in my direction. If they are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out.”
Paul Tudor Jones
Last week was obviously all about the conflict with Iran. Oil prices moved sharply up, uncertainty spread across most asset classes, with equities rolling over across nearly every index. Currencies weakened against the dollar, and bonds sold off.
There is no good playbook for geopolitical events of this kind. The range of outcomes is genuinely wide. There could be further escalation, and market conditions deteriorate. There could be a ceasefire, and markets snap back hard. Or the Fed could respond to the uncertainty by signaling deeper cuts, and risk assets rally sharply on that alone. Any of these is possible. None of them is predictable with the kind of confidence that should drive a portfolio decision, not for me at least.
And so, when the trends started breaking, I reduced, and in some cases, I exited. Not because my long-term thesis has changed, and not because I suddenly had better insight than anyone else. But because the structure of the trade was no longer intact, and when that happens, I act, just like I’m supposed to according to my system. Some of positions where the trend remains solid, those stay. The thesis there is still being confirmed by price action, and I have no reason to interfere, for now.
This is sometimes not an easy process, even though it’s quite simple. And it’s not easy because there is always a voice that says: you did the research, you know what this is worth, hold through the noise. And sometimes that voice is right. But that voice does not help to manage your risk. It only defends my conviction, and I use it to get back in when the time is right.
Just to be clear, the fundamental work does not disappear when I reduce or exit. I have a thesis on every position I carry, built over weeks or months of analysis. But in the short term, anything can happen. We are not in the business of predicting. We are in the business of positioning ourselves for what is probable given what we can observe, defining our risk before we enter, and having a plan that does not require us to always make a clear-headed decision under pressure, when we are least capable of making one.
Whatever happens next, I have defined my risk. That is the only part of this game I can control.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-seven, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, cerlogicresearch.substack.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• EUR/USD – EURO: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
Week of March 9–13, 2026, All times ET (GMT−5), ECONOMIC EVENTS
Key event this week: ★ US CPI (Wednesday). Next FOMC: March 18–19. Next BoC: March 18.
Monday, March 9
02:00 🇬🇧 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) (Q4 F)
02:00 🇬🇧 UK Current Account (Q4)
Tuesday, March 10
03:00 🇬🇧 UK Unemployment Rate (Jan)
06:00 🇺🇸 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Feb)
08:30 🇨🇦 Canada CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (Feb)
09:15 🇺🇸 Capacity Utilization Rate (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Feb)
Wednesday, March 11 ★ CPI Day
08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings Final (Feb)
14:00 🇺🇸 Treasury Budget (Feb)
Thursday, March 12
03:00 🇬🇧 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
06:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Industrial Production (Jan)
08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 7)
08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts (Jan)
08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Jan)
08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
Friday, March 13
08:30 🇩🇪 Germany CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb F)
08:30 🇺🇸 PPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core PPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar P)
EARNINGS
Format: Company Name $TICKER (EXCHANGE) – Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours.
Monday, March 9
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• ZIM Integrated Shipping $ZIM (NYSE) – Industrials / Shipping 🇮🇱
Tuesday, March 10
• Oracle $ORCL (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Franco-Nevada $FNV (NYSE / TSX) – Materials / Gold & Silver Royalties 🇨🇦
Wednesday, March 11
• Dick’s Sporting Goods $DKS (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Sporting Goods 🇺🇸
• Aris Mining $ARIS (NYSE / TSX) – Materials / Gold Mining / Colombia & Guyana 🇨🇦
• Harmony Gold $HMY (NYSE / JSE) – Materials / Gold Mining / South Africa 🇿🇦
Thursday, March 12
• Adobe $ADBE (Nasdaq) – Technology / Creative & Document Software 🇺🇸
• Dollar General $DG (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸
• Ulta Beauty $ULTA (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Beauty Retail 🇺🇸
• Lennar $LEN (NYSE) – Real Estate / Homebuilding 🇺🇸
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet $OLLI (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Closeout Retail 🇺🇸
• VAALCO Energy $EGY (NYSE / LSE) – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P / Gabon & Egypt 🇬🇧
Friday, March 13
No major scheduled earnings on Friday.
This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.