Markets Update – March 30, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“I started out by worrying about the system I was going to use to trade. The second factor I worked on was risk management and volatility control. The third area I focused on was the psychology of trading.
If I had it to do over again, I would reverse the process completely. I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.”
Tom Basso, known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s The New Market Wizards, 1992
There are plenty of good investing and trading systems out there. Most would get you on the right side of recent events, most would keep you from crashes and make you money.
There are plenty of good services, good frameworks, good risk management rules. Most of them work, but here is the thing, none of them is particularly better than the others.
The question is never really whether the system works. The only question is whether it works for you.
Because here is what happens: even the best system becomes extremely hard to follow when your psychology is not in the right place.
You second-guess every signal. You override the rules at exactly the wrong moment. And even if you somehow manage to stay disciplined, the system may simply not fit who you are. The volatility is too large and you cannot sleep. Or too small and you lose interest. The time it demands is not time you have. You are checking charts every five minutes, stressed, exhausted, running on cortisol instead of conviction. You might even make some money. But then you ask yourself, is it really worth it?
Some people love spending eight to twelve hours behind a screen, making ten to twenty trades a day, constantly trimming and adding, fully alive in that environment. Most people do not. And neither group is wrong. They are just different.
It may sound obvious, almost too simple to say, but you have to discover what kind of person you are before you can find a system that genuinely fits you.
That is what separates the ten percent of investors and the two or three percent of traders who consistently make money over time from everyone else. Not a better system. A better match between the system and the person using it.
I personally like to invest in a way where I do not need to touch a position for months. And I like to trade in a way where I can check my alerts once a day and make an adjustment if needed, ideally none, until the thesis plays out. I love to travel. That is the only way I can do any of this. Another approach would break me, no matter how good it looked on paper.
If I could leave you with one thought, it would be this: go and read. Books are the best return on your money that exists. You will find fundamental investors and traders who are pure technicians, investors who hold for years and traders who are out by end of day. The only question is which one is you. Go and find out, my friends.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar
Week of March 30 – April 3, 2026
All times ET (GMT−5)
ECONOMIC EVENTS
★★ Key event: NFP (Fri, Apr 3) - March jobs report releases at 08:30 ET as scheduled, but US stock markets are CLOSED for Good Friday. Reaction will play out Sunday night and Monday open. Also: ★ ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wed) and JOLTS (Tue). Next FOMC: April 28–29.
Sunday / Monday, March 29–30 - overnight releases
18:30* 🇯🇵 Japan CPI (YoY) (Feb) - *Sun 6:30 PM ET
20:30* 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar) - *Sun 8:30 PM ET
20:30* 🇨🇳 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) - *Sun 8:30 PM ET
Monday, March 30
03:00 🇩🇪 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI Flash (YoY) (Mar)
05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Core CPI Flash (YoY) (Mar)
Tuesday, March 31
02:30 🇵🇱 Poland CPI (YoY) (Mar)
07:30 🇨🇦 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan)
08:30 🇺🇸 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan)
09:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 Consumer Confidence (Mar)
Wednesday, April 1 ★ ISM Manufacturing
08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar)
10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar)
10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Mar 27)
Thursday, April 2
08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 28)
08:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Feb)
Friday, April 3 ★★ NFP Day - US Markets CLOSED (Good Friday)
NYSE, Nasdaq, TSX and most European exchanges closed. NFP releases as scheduled - market reaction Monday open.
08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) (Mar)
EARNINGS
Format: Company Name
(EXCHANGE) - Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Note: Q4 2025 reporting season complete - this week transitions to Q1 2026 / fiscal quarter reporters.
Monday, March 30
No major scheduled earnings.
Tuesday, March 31
• Nike
(NYSE) - Consumer Discretionary / Sportswear 🇺🇸
• TD Synnex
(NYSE) - Technology / IT Distribution & Services 🇺🇸
Wednesday, April 1
• RH
(NYSE) - Consumer Discretionary / Luxury Home Furnishings 🇺🇸
• Cintas
(Nasdaq) - Industrials / Uniform & Business Services 🇺🇸
Thursday, April 2
No major scheduled earnings.
Friday, April 3
US markets closed for Good Friday. No earnings.
This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.
Beautiful intro to the post. Do you share somewhere which books you would recommend? I'm also someone who would like to invest in a smaller number of high quality names with conviction and a timeline of months and not have to be checking the charts and ratios and constantly adjusting. Any pointers you might have would be appreciated.