Markets Update – March 23, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.”
Ed Seykota
A few weeks ago I wrote about selling most of my risk positions. The war has just started, oil went up, uncertainty spread across every asset class, and trends started to break. I followed the rules, I did not predict what would happen next. I just responded to what the market was telling me.
The reason I was able to do that without hesitation comes down to a simple rule. I do not hold downtrends and I do not buy them. But that is not a rule I follow purely out of process and discipline. I discovered that it is simply how I am wired. Some may be comfortable with holding through or averaging into a drawdown, but for me the discomfort of sitting in a position that the market is actively rejecting is not something I can suffer, and I stopped trying. I am not saying my way is way better. I am saying it is mine, and that it’s compatible with my character.
What I do believe, and what shapes every position I carry, is that the base / fundamental case and the trend have to agree. I need both. The fundamental analysis tells me where the value is, what the destination looks like, what kind of asset I am dealing with and why it should be worth more than it is today. The trend tells me whether the market is currently moving in that direction or against it. When both point the same way, I can hold with conviction. When they diverge, I wait.
I try not to be smarter than the market. The market processes more information than I ever will, and it prices that information continuously. When it disagrees with me, the respectful response is not to double down on my thesis. It is to step back, stay liquid, and watch.
The way I think about it is this. Fair value is the destination. Like a sailor who knows exactly where he wants to go, I have a clear picture of where the price should eventually arrive. And like a sailor, I know the general tides, the best seasons for the passage, the historical patterns that tend to favor the crossing. I have tools to anticipate probable conditions ahead, but I cannot predict the exact weather.
Sometimes everything lines up. The winds are with you, the seas are calm, and the work is just small adjustments to the sails and the course. Those are the good stretches, and you enjoy them for what they are. Other times you sail into headwinds. Progress slows, the hull takes more punishment, and you have to work harder for the same distance. You adjust, you persist, but you stay alert.
And sometimes a storm comes. When it does, the right move is not to prove your seamanship by pushing through it. The right move is to find a safe harbor, wait it out, and sail when the conditions are ready for you. The destination has not changed. The boat is still sound. But there is no honor in taking unnecessary damage while the storm decides what it wants to do.
That is where we are right now. The trends are broken across most of what I watch. The fundamentals have not disappeared, but the market is not confirming them, and I will not sail into a storm because I believe in the destination. I am in the harbor. I am watching. And when the wind turns, I will be ready.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-nine, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• EUR/USD – EURO: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar
Week of March 23–27, 2026
All times ET (GMT−5)
ECONOMIC EVENTS
★ Key event this week: PCE Prices (Fri) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, releasing alongside GDP Q4 final and Personal Income/Spending. FOMC blackout lifted: Fed speakers return this week.
Monday, March 23
10:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan)
Tuesday, March 24
04:15 🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
04:15 🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash Services PMI (Mar)
04:30 🇬🇧 UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
04:30 🇬🇧 UK Flash Services PMI (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs Final (QoQ) (Q4)
08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity Final (QoQ) (Q4)
09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Flash Services PMI (Mar)
10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Feb)
Wednesday, March 25
08:30 🇺🇸 Current Account (Q4)
08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Export Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Mar 20)
Thursday, March 26
08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 21)
10:30 🇺🇸 Natural Gas Storage Change
14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
17:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
Friday, March 27 ★ PCE Day
08:30 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) Final (Q4)
08:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index Final (Q4)
08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Personal Income (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Mar)
EARNINGS
Format: Company Name
(EXCHANGE) – Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Note: Q4 2025 reporting season largely complete. Lighter week for TSX/LSE names.
Monday, March 23
• Caledonia Mining
(NYSE American / TSX) – Materials / Gold Mining / Zimbabwe 🇨🇦
Tuesday, March 24
• GameStop
(NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Retail 🇺🇸
• KB Home
(NYSE) – Real Estate / Homebuilding 🇺🇸
Wednesday, March 25
• Paychex
(Nasdaq) – Technology / HR & Payroll Services 🇺🇸
• Cintas
(Nasdaq) – Industrials / Uniform & Business Services 🇺🇸
Thursday, March 26
• Chewy
(NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Online Pet Products 🇺🇸
Friday, March 27
• Carnival Corporation
(NYSE / LSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Cruise Lines 🇺🇸
This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.