Markets Update – March 2, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“You have to use volatility, not be abused by it.”
Stanley Druckenmiller, Morgan Stanley Hard Lessons, January 2026
This week, we could of course talk about the Iran war, the Middle East escalation, and the consequences for markets. Oil will likely open way higher, and the dollar could follow, putting pressure on risk assets. But how long will it last, will there be a resolution, I certainly don’t know. There has been so much said about it across all media that it’s hard to filter through the noise, and it’s certainly impossible to add anything new to the conversation.
And so, this week I want to talk about something else, or someone else to be precise: Stanley Druckenmiller. Not because he needs an introduction, he doesn’t, but because he gave one of the more honest interviews I’ve seen in a long time. He sat down with Iliana Bouzali at Morgan Stanley for their Hard Lessons series. If you haven’t watched it yet, you should.
Besides the punchlines that were shared to exhaustion, I wanted to focus on some of the very important points he was making, points that perhaps stayed hidden but should be discussed, and even written down by anyone who is serious about this business. So let’s go through them.
First, nobody plays this game truly alone. The best in this business invest in the people around them. Good research is worth paying for, and great people around you are worth even more. No fund, no family office, no serious investment operation runs on one person’s genius alone, no matter what that person’s public persona might suggest.
Second, the number. Thirty percent, compounded annually, no losing years from 1981 to 2010. For anyone posting fifty or a hundred percent year-to-date on X right now, that might not sound impressive. It isn’t, in a single year. But held across nearly three decades without a single down year, it is one of the most extraordinary track records in the history of capital markets. Compounding doesn’t need to shout. The ones flashing unbelievable returns in a bull market will largely be gone before the next serious cycle is over.
Third, and here’s what made the interview really stay with me. Druckenmiller admitted he suffered from imposter syndrome for fifteen years. Maybe longer. One of the most celebrated macro investors alive, a man who helped break the Bank of England, spent the better part of two decades sick with anxiety during drawdowns. He said it plainly: he would literally throw up once or twice a week from the stress of it.
I don’t throw up twice a week, and I may never be at his level, but I know the feeling he’s pointing at. Every drawdown brings a version of it. The questions start quietly and then get loud. Do I still have it? Was I just lucky in that last run? Did I do enough research on this one? What if I’m wrong here, and the people who depend on this work are going to pay for my mistake? That’s not weakness. That’s what genuine accountability feels like. Druckenmiller learned, eventually, that the record speaks for itself, but it took him fifteen years to really believe that.
Fourth, the role of mentors, and this one matters at every stage of the game. He credits two directly. His first mentor in Pittsburgh shaped how he thinks about markets fundamentally. Then Soros, who didn’t teach him macro. Druckenmiller says he already understood that better. But Soros taught him something more important: how to size positions. How much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong is what separates good investors from great ones. That lesson came from having the right person in the room.
The good news is that in 2026, great mentors are more accessible than at any point in history. You don’t need to know the right people or be in the right building. The teachings of Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, and dozens of others are available in interviews, letters, and recorded conversations that would have taken entire careers to collect even twenty years ago. The barrier isn’t access. It’s the attention and the discipline to actually absorb it.
There is also the
story. He built a large position knowing almost nothing about the company, then he doubled it at a higher price, and then doubled it again. And still sold too early. There is a lot to unpack in that one, so we will leave it for another time.
That sets the tone for this week. This is update number seventy-six, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research -
Key Economic Events & Earnings – Week of March 3–7, 2026
Times in GMT‑5 / New York Time
Monday, March 2
Holidays: 🇰🇷 South Korea (Independence Movement Day)
• 03:00 🇩🇪 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 03:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 04:55 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 05:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 10:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb)
Tuesday, March 3
Holidays: 🇧🇬 Bulgaria (Liberation Day) · 🇮🇳 India (Holi) · 🇮🇱 Israel (Purim) · 🇹🇭 Thailand (Makha Bucha Day)
• 06:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 06:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 06:00 🇬🇧 Spring Forecast Statement
• 08:30 🇬🇧 Spring Statement
• 10:55 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 12:45 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Wednesday, March 4
• 20:30* 🇦🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q4) · GDP (YoY) (Q4) — *Tue eve NY
• 21:30* 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Feb) · Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — *Tue eve NY
• 05:30 🇨🇭 SNB Press Conference
• 05:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
• 06:00 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
• 10:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb)
• 11:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 11:30 🇨🇦 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
• 13:38 🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 15:00 🇺🇸 Beige Book
Thursday, March 5
• 08:30 🇪🇺 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Jan)
• 13:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 14:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Friday, March 6 ★ NFP Day
• 03:00 🇩🇪 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 06:00 🇪🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q4) · GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 06:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 09:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
• 09:30 🇨🇦 Employment Change (Feb)
• 09:30 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 11:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI (Feb)
No FOMC or BoC rate decisions this week. Next BoC & FOMC: March 18.
EARNINGS
Monday, March 2
• Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸
• The AES Corporation $AES (NYSE) – Utilities 🇺🇸
• Venture Global $VG (NYSE) – Energy / LNG 🇺🇸
• Sealed Air $SEE (NYSE) – Industrials / Packaging 🇺🇸
• MongoDB $MDB (Nasdaq) – Technology / Database 🇺🇸
• Ingram Micro $INGM (NYSE) – Technology / Distribution 🇺🇸
• Credo Technology $CRDO (Nasdaq) – Technology / Semiconductors 🇺🇸
• Smith & Nephew $SN (LSE) – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇬🇧
• Bunzl $BNZL (LSE) – Industrials / Distribution 🇬🇧
• K92 Mining $KNT (TSX) – Gold Mining / Papua New Guinea 🇨🇦
• Capstone Copper $CS (TSX) – Copper Mining 🇨🇦
• New Gold $NGD (NYSE American) – Gold & Copper Mining 🇨🇦
• NexGen Energy $NXE (NYSE / TSX) – Uranium 🇨🇦
• Denison Mines $DML (NYSE American / TSX) – Uranium 🇨🇦
• Advantage Energy $AAV (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦
Tuesday, March 3
• AutoZone $AZO (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Auto Parts 🇺🇸
• Target $TGT (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Retail 🇺🇸
• Best Buy $BBY (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Electronics 🇺🇸
• Ross Stores $ROST (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Off-Price Retail 🇺🇸
• CrowdStrike Holdings $CRWD (Nasdaq) – Technology / Cybersecurity 🇺🇸
• Fresnillo $FRES (LSE) – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇬🇧
• Intertek Group $ITRK (LSE) – Industrials / Testing & Certification 🇬🇧
Wednesday, March 4
• Broadcom $AVGO (Nasdaq) – Technology / Semiconductors & Software 🇺🇸
• Brown-Forman $BFb (NYSE) – Consumer Staples / Spirits 🇺🇸
• Weir Group $WEIR (LSE) – Industrials / Mining Equipment 🇬🇧
• Beazley $BEZ (LSE) – Financials / Specialty Insurance 🇬🇧
• Baytex Energy $BTE (NYSE / TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦
• Athabasca Oil $ATH (TSX) – Oil Sands / Heavy Oil 🇨🇦
• Vermilion Energy $VET (NYSE / TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P / International 🇨🇦
• Capital Power $CPX (TSX) – Utilities / Power Generation 🇨🇦
Thursday, March 5
• Petrobras $PBR (NYSE) – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇧🇷
• Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (NYSE / TSX) – Energy / Oil & Gas 🇨🇦
• Costco Wholesale $COST (Nasdaq) – Consumer Staples / Wholesale Retail 🇺🇸
• JD.com $JD (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce 🇨🇳
• Marvell Technology $MRVL (Nasdaq) – Technology / Semiconductors 🇺🇸
• Kroger $KR (NYSE) – Consumer Staples / Grocery Retail 🇺🇸
• Reckitt Benckiser $RKT (LSE) – Consumer Staples / Healthcare & Hygiene 🇬🇧
• Aviva $AV (LSE) – Financials / Insurance 🇬🇧
• ITV $ITV (LSE) – Communication Services / Broadcasting 🇬🇧
• Entain $ENT (LSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Sports Betting 🇬🇧
• Endeavour Mining $EDV (LSE / TSX) – Materials / Gold Mining 🇬🇧
• Admiral Group $ADM (LSE) – Financials / Insurance 🇬🇧
• Ero Copper $ERO (NYSE / TSX) – Copper & Gold Mining / Brazil 🇧🇷
• Methanex $MX (TSX / Nasdaq) – Materials / Methanol 🇨🇦
• Parex Resources $PXT (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P / Colombia 🇨🇦
• Headwater Exploration $HWX (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦
• Kelt Exploration $KEL (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦
• Maple Leaf Foods $MFI (TSX) – Consumer Staples / Protein Foods 🇨🇦
Friday, March 6
• Embraer $ERJ (NYSE) – Industrials / Aerospace & Defense 🇧🇷
• AltaGas $ALA (TSX) – Utilities / Energy Infrastructure 🇨🇦
• Algonquin Power & Utilities $AQN (NYSE / TSX) – Utilities / Renewable Energy 🇨🇦
• IMI PLC $IMI (LSE) – Industrials / Flow Control 🇬🇧
• Labrador Iron Ore Royalty $LIF (TSX) – Materials / Iron Ore Royalties 🇨🇦
Earnings dates subject to change. Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Sources: investing.com, Kiplinger, Junior Mining Network, company press releases.
Awesome Thank You