Markets Update – March 16, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“I always say that you could publish trading rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.”
Richard Dennis
Last week we discussed defining your risk before the market forces you to, and the importance of positioning for what is probable based on research rather than trying to predict outcomes. Let’s take it one step further.
Everyone can read the rules. I believe most people already know what they are supposed to do. Let winners run. Do not average down into broken trends. Cut losses quickly, get out when the structure fails. None of this is secret. Knowledge is not the edge here. The edge is in the doing of it. Consistently. Especially when it is uncomfortable.
As you well know I followed the rules recently. The positions where the trend was broken, I reduced or exited. The positions where the trend remained intact, those stayed. That is the full logic. And I’m doing it the same way every time, without letting the noise talk me out of it.
Last week the continued conflict with Iran drove oil sharply higher, uncertainty spread across every asset class, and markets continued to deteriorate. Equities broke down further. Treasuries extended their decline, and the dollar strengthened. There is no obvious playbook for this, and there is no predicting it. Just price action, and the rules.
Setting the noise aside for a moment, here is an honest observation: I do not think stocks, bonds, gold, or even oil are pricing in a prolonged conflict right now. Not really. The moves have been sharp, but the market is not behaving like it believes this lasts. If anything, it feels like many participants are coiled, ready to go all in, and simply waiting for a signal. De-escalation, a ceasefire, anything that lets them pull the trigger. Maybe they are right and that signal is coming. I genuinely do not know. But positioning heavily in anticipation of a resolution that has not happened yet is not something I am willing to do, and the risk management framework I described above is precisely why.
Now, on the subject of following investment ideas, trades and signals. I try to be precise about what I am sharing, whether something is a long-term investment, a long-term hold, or an active trade. But even that does not tell the full story, because the full story includes things that are highly individual.
We all size our investing and trading accounts different relative to our net worth, we often have different time horizons, different tax situations, different psychological tolerances for volatility. Some people are naturally built for short-term trading and will never find peace in a long-term hold. Others are the opposite. The best traders and investors I have observed over the years are the ones who found the system that fits them, that brings out the best of what they already are rather than fighting against it.
This is why I decided to share my research and moves rather than calls. To say honestly what I buy, where I buy it, why I buy it, where my risk is defined, and where I will sell. To keep it transparent at every step. That is the only way I know how to do this honestly. But what you do with it has to be adjusted to your own situation, your own character, your own edge.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-eight, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• AU/USD – GOLD: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
Economic Events
Week of March 16–20, 2026
All times ET (GMT−5)
★★ Major central bank week: FOMC decision + dot plot + SEP (Wed 14:00 ET) and Bank of Canada decision (Wed 09:45 ET). Note: FOMC blackout period is in effect — no Fed speaker remarks this week.
Monday, March 16
04:00 🇨🇳 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
04:00 🇨🇳 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
04:00 🇨🇳 China Fixed Asset Investment (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
Tuesday, March 17 — FOMC Day 1
05:00 🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
09:15 🇺🇸 Capacity Utilization Rate (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)
Wednesday, March 18 ★★ BoC + FOMC Day
09:45 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada Rate Decision
10:00 🇺🇸 Housing Starts (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Feb)
10:30 🇨🇦 BoC Governor Macklem Press Conference
10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Mar 13)
14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot + SEP
14:30 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Thursday, March 19
08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 14)
08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Current Account (Q4)
Friday, March 20
02:00 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Feb)
10:00 🇺🇸 Leading Indicators (Feb)
EARNINGS
Format: Company Name $TICKER (EXCHANGE) – Sector
Monday, March 16
• Darden Restaurants $DRI (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Full Service Restaurants 🇺🇸
Tuesday, March 17
• XPeng $XPEV (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Electric Vehicles 🇨🇳
Wednesday, March 18
• Micron Technology $MU (Nasdaq) – Technology / Memory Semiconductors 🇺🇸
• General Mills $GIS (NYSE) – Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods 🇺🇸
• Five Below $FIVE (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸
Thursday, March 19
• Nike $NKE (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Sportswear 🇺🇸
• FedEx $FDX (NYSE) – Industrials / Shipping & Logistics 🇺🇸
• Accenture $ACN (NYSE) – Technology / IT Services & Consulting 🇺🇸
Friday, March 20
No major scheduled earnings on Friday.
This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.
This is very helpful, Kacper! Thank you:)
Glad I found this / thanks for the read