Markets Update – June 8, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.”
Stanley Druckenmiller, from his interview in The New Market Wizards, Jack D. Schwager, 1992
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
Markets printed a fresh ATH early last week and then ended with a snap decline, with Nasdaq down almost 5% on Friday in the worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock.
Some say it’s the strong payrolls lifting yields and erasing the hope for cuts later this year. I think that’s not the real reason, this was already priced in. We just went too far too fast, and the pullback had to happen at some point.
The nine-week low-volume S&P winning streak finally broke and every major US index flipped back to short-term sideways, except for the Dow. The rotation we’ve been talking about is grinding under the surface, but with passive inflows favoring large-cap tech the way they do, it’s really difficult to see how far it could go.
Asian markets open will be very interesting, especially South Korea and Taiwan. The companies trading there are great and profitable, but there’s tremendous leverage out there now, it is what fueled the parabolic move and that always cuts both ways.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
The US dollar kept climbing higher last week, with the real move coming on Friday after the payrolls report. DXY closed just above 100 but hasn’t broken out of the multi-month structure just yet, and this is probably the most important dynamic out there right now.
Strong dollar is putting pressure on everything else, the only currency still in an uptrend against it is the offshore Chinese Yuan. Gold is feeling it too and now sits at major support, and Bitcoin, which has been weak for half a year already, is also sitting at major support. How all of this resolves comes down to where the dollar goes next.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend ➝ sideways
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend ➝ sideways
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: positive ➝ neutral
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Precious metals were hit first by the stronger dollar, and the general need for liquidity caused by the Iran war and the developing energy crisis / rising rates. Now base metals are feeling the moderate pressure as well.
We’ll see where the markets take us. As always, what we can do is respect the trends, manage risk, and position for the highest probability scenarios. We’re long where the trends are intact, and will stay this way until each individual move is exhausted.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: positive ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL HG 0.00%↑
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
The Iran conflict hasn’t materially changed, if anything they’re shooting at each other more it seems. The last big pullback came on yet another headline about lifting the naval blockade, but it doesn’t seem to be happening right now, and the market doesn’t seem to care anymore. I don’t think this resolves easily either way, we’ll likely run on large reserve releases until such time. I’m watching closely and will follow the trend.
What’s really interesting under the surface is that managed money can’t build a meaningful long position in oil, let alone hold it over the weekend. One post can wipe them out so they simply don’t do it, their risk parameters won’t allow it. Producers aren’t hedging at these prices either, and without hedging there’s no investment, which means no meaningful new supply for years to come.
The medium-term uptrend in crude is still intact so we stay patient with the oil position, same goes for energy equities. Natural gas is slowly grinding higher, so we’re comfortable with a starter position there. Coal stays long, that trend is clear, and we’ll adjust if anything changes.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Nothing has fundamentally changed yet, all maturities remain in medium-term downtrend and the structural backdrop is still the same. The market is anticipating the obvious government reaction to any crisis in the economy or markets, or even to no crisis, which is almost always more debt issuance, more money creation, and more inflation.
What’s interesting under the surface is the curve. On Friday, the 2- year and 10-year yields have been blasting higher on payrolls, while the 30-year went nowhere. So the curve is steepening, it’s subtle but also the cleanest tell that the bond market sees the Fed staying tight while expecting the economy or markets to start cracking first.
Japan’s 10-year is still holding above 2.5 percent, higher than pre-GFC, and UK 10-year is retesting the recent breakout. We stay away from any longs in the bond space. As we said last week and got confirmation now, the recent reprieve didn’t look like the start of a new trend.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The pullback we discussed for some time now has now materialized. Managed money ran for the hills on the largest outflows in a long time.
We respect the price action; it’s crucial for risk management, while being aware that the fundamentals haven’t changed. The energy and fertilizer crisis is still feeding through, and even in the case of peace tomorrow, the long-term supply damage is already done. We’ll likely be higher 6-12 months from now, but we need dry powder to be ready when we trend up again.
That’s why we closed the DBA core LTH on Friday, with most of the fund constituents having lost their medium-term uptrends. On individual ags we’re down to long cotton trimmed to 1/4, soybean oil at full position, and rice at 1/4 left.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 8–12, 2026
Monday, June 8
Economic Events
• 🇦🇺 🇨🇴 Holidays: King’s Birthday (Australia), Corpus Christi (Colombia)
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan GDP QoQ Final (Q1), GDP YoY (Q1), Current Account (Apr)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM (Apr)
• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate (May)
• 🇺🇸 17:00 NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)
Earnings – Consumer Staples
• $CPB (NASDAQ) Campbell’s – Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods (Soup, Snacks) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $MTN (NYSE) Vail Resorts – Consumer Discretionary / Mountain Resorts 🇺🇸
Tuesday, June 9
Economic Events
• 🇬🇧 01:01 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (May)
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (May)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Trade Balance (Apr) + Industrial Production MoM (Apr)
• 🇿🇦 11:30 South Africa GDP Annualized QoQ
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Trade Balance (Apr) + Imports & Exports (Apr)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Trade Balance (Apr)
• 🇨🇳 18:29 China Trade Balance, Imports & Exports YoY (May)
• 🇺🇸 19:00 3-Year Note Auction
• 🇺🇸 22:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Earnings – Uranium & Mining
• $UEC (NYSE American) Uranium Energy Corp – Materials / Uranium ISR Mining 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Staples
• $SJM (NYSE) J.M. Smucker – Consumer Staples / Coffee, Snacks, Pet Food 🇺🇸
• $UNFI (NYSE) United Natural Foods – Consumer Staples / Grocery Wholesale Distribution 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $CASY (NASDAQ) Casey’s General Stores – Consumer Discretionary / Convenience Stores 🇺🇸
Wednesday, June 10
Economic Events
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia Building Approvals MoM (Apr)
• 🇨🇳 03:30 China CPI MoM, YoY & PPI YoY (May)
• 🇩🇪 11:30 Germany 10-Year Bund Auction
• 🇺🇸 14:30 CPI MoM, YoY & Core CPI MoM, YoY (May)
• 🇨🇦 15:45 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement
• 🇨🇦 16:30 BoC Press Conference
• 🇺🇸 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 🇷🇺 18:00 Russia CPI MoM & YoY (May)
• 🇺🇸 19:00 10-Year Note Auction
• 🇺🇸 20:00 Federal Budget Balance (May)
Earnings – Technology
• $ORCL (NYSE) Oracle – Technology / Cloud Infrastructure & Enterprise Software 🇺🇸
Earnings – Mining Services
• $MDI (TSX) Major Drilling – Materials / Specialized Mining Drilling Services 🇨🇦
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $CHWY (NYSE) Chewy – Consumer Discretionary / Pet E-Commerce 🇺🇸
Thursday, June 11
Economic Events
• 🇬🇧 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance (May)
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q2)
• 🇸🇪 08:00 Sweden CPI MoM & YoY (May)
• 🇪🇺 12:00 Eurogroup Meetings
• 🇺🇸 12:00 OPEC Monthly Report
• 🇹🇷 13:00 Turkey One-Week Repo Rate (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 14:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision + Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) + Monetary Policy Statement
• 🇺🇸 14:30 PPI MoM & Core PPI MoM (May) + Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Building Permits MoM (Apr)
• 🇪🇺 14:45 ECB Press Conference
• 🇺🇸 18:00 WASDE Report
Earnings – Technology
• $ADBE (NASDAQ) Adobe – Technology / Creative & Marketing Software 🇺🇸
Earnings – Homebuilders
• $LEN (NYSE) Lennar – Consumer Discretionary / US Homebuilder 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $DOL (TSX) Dollarama – Consumer Discretionary / Canadian Discount Retail 🇨🇦
• $RH (NYSE) RH – Consumer Discretionary / Luxury Home Furnishings 🇺🇸
Earnings – Industrials
• $HLMA (LSE) Halma plc – Industrials / Safety, Environmental & Photonics 🇬🇧
Friday, June 12
Economic Events
• 🇳🇬 🇵🇭 🇷🇺 Holidays: Democracy Day (Nigeria), Independence Day (Philippines), Russia Day (Russia)
• 🇳🇿 00:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)
• 🇯🇵 06:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM (Apr)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany CPI MoM & YoY Final (May)
• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK GDP MoM (Apr) + Manufacturing Production MoM (Apr) + Industrial Production MoM (Apr) + Trade Balance (Apr)
• 🇫🇷 08:45 France CPI MoM & HICP MoM (May)
• 🇪🇸 09:00 Spain CPI YoY & HICP YoY (May)
• 🇮🇳 12:30 India CPI YoY (May)
• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil CPI YoY (May)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (Jun) + Inflation Expectations 1Y / 5Y
• 🇺🇸 19:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq