Markets Update – June 29, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Risk enough to make a difference if you win. Risk not enough to hurt you if you lose. If these two amounts don’t overlap, don’t trade.”
Ed Seykota
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
The summer rotation seems to have started early. The S&P has rolled over and is now in a short-term downtrend. The Nasdaq has lost its uptrend as well.
What’s still holding up is the less crowded side. The Dow and the Russell are both maintaining their uptrends, and the Russell’s COT remains positive. In sectors, healthcare and infrastructure are still our main bets for relative outperformance.
Asian markets are on a rollercoaster and will likely stay that way, especially South Korea where leverage is driving things now. These markets can double or get cut in half on the first sign of an AI capex slowdown. We’ll never know for sure, so the best approach is to follow the trends and manage risk.
As for us, nothing really changes. We hold selective longs where the trend is intact and we won’t short uptrends. We’re also not leaning into anything new right now. Nothing looks particularly cheap and at the beginning of a move, and that’s still where most of the big gains tend to be made.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: neutral ➝ negative
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
The dollar has finally broken out of its multi-month structure, a clean break to a thirteen-month high over 101 on DXY. And that happened with both oil and yields going down.
Now, will it go straight to 103-105, or will it retrace/retest, or even back down? The probabilities point to the higher dollar, but we’ll see.
That remains the most important dynamic in markets right now. It weighs heavily on other currencies and commodities first, but usually the rest of the assets follow. Let’s see how much of that can be tolerated, but I don’t expect any action until beloved markets would start to really roll over.
Gold took the stronger dollar/shortage on the chin. It almost lost the must-hold zone, and briefly traded below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025. There will be time to get back in and press long, but that we’re not there yet.
A firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed are two legs out at once. We follow the trend in front of us, and right now that is up in the dollar and down in almost everything priced against it.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: sideways ➝ downtrend
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ uptrend
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: neutral ➝ negative
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: neutral ➝ negative
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: neutral ➝ negative
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The contagion we flagged kept spreading. The dollar wrecking ball caught the holdouts. Copper, zinc, and tin have all rolled into short-term downtrends.
Still, the core medium-term structure remains intact where it matters most: Doctor Copper. We’ll see how this plays out, but we’re being careful now. In the very short term, this still looks more like a supply story than a demand one.
Our framework doesn’t change. We respect the trends, manage risk, and stay long only while the trend is intact. For now, it seems many individual moves are exhausted.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• IRON ORE, 61% – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral ➝ negative
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
The framework of a framework, or talks about talks, hold for now. It’s peaceful just enough to keep some of the tankers moving through Hormuz.
But is the agreement to keep talking fraying? We had a reported attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman, and retaliation, just after the markets closed on Friday, coincidence no doubt. Well, we don’t know, but we think this doesn’t resolve quickly, and in the best case is months away from normal flows.
Anyhow, the price did the talking again, and crude kept bleeding, Brent into the low 70s now, managed money sold and shorted into the low, same as last week.
All we hear is narratives now of a giant glut, Iran and Venezuela flooding the markets, together with the UAE, who exited the OPEC. That’s the story, peaceful sailing into the sunset, and oil abundance forever in the future.
It’s obviously sarcastic, but written to emphasize that none of these narratives even touch the real story. Long-term prices didn’t move, and so, producers didn’t hedge, so there is no new desperately needed investment, and no new meaningful supply for years no matter the headlines.
We stay patient and the long-term energy equity positions stay on. Nat gas is still keeping its small advance despite the oil smash, while coal’s higher-low consolidation softened to a medium-term sideways.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
The curve kept flattening, this time from the short end. Yields around the world pulled back along with oil, though not by much. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Globally it’s the same synchronized inflation fight, with most central banks still leaning toward tightening. Their resolve will be tested again, and we’ll see how long they can hold the line.
The structural story hasn’t changed. More deficits, more issuance, more money creation. We’re still not taking any longs here, except for occasional trades. Nothing in this setup makes me want to own long-duration government bonds.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The speculative flush is over. It ended right as the most bearish news hit, yet prices refused to fall much further. New leaders are already emerging, with rice, coffee, and cocoa starting to trend higher.
The real story is that energy crisis damage is still feeding through unevenly, and El Niño is now adding another layer of supply pressure across multiple regions.
In Southeast Asia, drier and hotter conditions could be hitting production in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while also stressing palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia. India is also seeing reduced monsoon rainfall in many areas.
In West Africa, warmer and drier weather tend to stress cocoa trees in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce around 70 percent of global supply.
In South America the picture is more mixed: southern Brazil and Argentina often see wetter conditions that can benefit soy and corn, while northeast Brazil tends to get drier.
This combination of lingering energy and fertilizer problems plus emerging El Niño effects suggest that we’ll very likely be higher six to twelve months from now. But for now the job is keeping dry powder ready for when the broader trend turns back up.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 29 – July 3, 2026
Monday, June 29
Economic Events
• 🇨🇴🇲🇹🇱🇰 Holidays: Colombia & Malta (St Peter and St Paul Day); Sri Lanka (Poson Poya Day)
• 🇬🇧 07:00 UK – BoE MPC Member Pill speaks
• 🇪🇸 09:00 Spain – CPI YoY & HICP YoY (Jun)
• 🇦🇺 13:30 Australia – RBA Assistant Gov Kent speaks
• 🇪🇺 19:30 Euro Area – ECB President Lagarde speaks
Tuesday, June 30
Economic Events
• 🇪🇬 Holiday: Egypt (Revolution Day)
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan – Industrial Production MoM (May)
• 🇨🇳 03:30 China – Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing & Composite PMI (Jun); 🇦🇺 Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK – GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1), Business Investment, Current Account, Nationwide HPI; 🇩🇪 Germany – Retail Sales (May)
• 🇫🇷 08:45 France – CPI MoM & HICP MoM (Jun), Consumer Spending
• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland – KOF Leading Indicators (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 09:55 Germany – Unemployment Rate & Change (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 14:00 Germany – CPI MoM & YoY (Jun)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada – GDP MoM (Apr)
• 🇺🇸 15:45 US – Chicago PMI (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – JOLTS Job Openings (May); CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 22:30 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Earnings – Major US
• $NKE
(NYSE) Nike – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel & Footwear (Q4 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸
• $STZ
(NYSE) Constellation Brands – Consumer Staples / Beer, Wine & Spirits (Q1 FY27, after close; call Jul 1) 🇺🇸
Wednesday, July 1
Economic Events
• 🇨🇦🇭🇰🇷🇼 Holidays: Canada (Canada Day); Hong Kong (SAR Establishment Day); Rwanda (Independence Day)
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan – Tankan Large Manufacturers / Non-Manufacturers Index & Outlook (Q2)
• 🇨🇳 03:45 China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 09:15–10:00 Eurozone – Manufacturing PMIs: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area (Jun)
• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Euro Area – CPI YoY, Core CPI YoY & CPI MoM (Jun, flash)
• 🇺🇸 14:15 US – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 🇨🇦 15:00 Canada – BoC Gov Macklem; 🇪🇺 ECB Lagarde; 🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey; 🇺🇸 Fed Gov Warsh speak
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices & Employment (Jun); Construction Spending (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:30 US – Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories
• 🇺🇸 17:30 US – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)
Earnings – Major US
•$MSM
(NYSE) MSC Industrial Direct – Industrials / Metalworking & MRO Distribution (Q3 FY26, before open) 🇺🇸
•$GBX
(NYSE) Greenbrier Companies – Industrials / Freight Railcars & Marine Barges (Q3 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸
•$UNF
(NYSE) UniFirst – Industrials / Uniforms & Workwear (Q3 FY26, before open) 🇺🇸
•$FC
(NYSE) Franklin Covey – Industrials / Leadership Training & Consulting (Q3 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸
Thursday, July 2
Economic Events
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia – Trade Balance (May)
• 🇯🇵 05:35 Japan – 10-Year JGB Auction
• 🇨🇭 08:30 Switzerland – CPI MoM (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Euro Area – Unemployment Rate (May)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg Hourly Earnings, Private Payrolls, Participation, U6, Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims [NFP brought forward ahead of the July 4 holiday]
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – Factory Orders (May)
• 🇬🇧 17:45 UK – BoE MPC Member Mann speaks
• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count (brought forward)
• 🇺🇸 22:30 US – Fed’s Balance Sheet
Friday, July 3
Economic Events
• 🇺🇸 Holiday: United States (Independence Day – US markets closed)
• 🇯🇵 02:30 Japan – S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
• 🇨🇳 03:45 China – Caixin Services PMI (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 09:15–10:00 Eurozone – Services & Composite PMIs: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 10:00 Euro Area – ECB President Lagarde speaks
• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK – S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 17:00 Germany – Buba President Nagel; 🇬🇧 UK – BoE Gov Bailey speak
• 🇺🇸 21:30 US – CFTC speculative net positions