Markets Update – June 22, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Many traders hope to make money to achieve a happy life. The reality is that a happy life significantly contributes to trading success.”
Brett Steenbarger, Positive Trading Psychology: Turning Personal Strengths Into Trading Strengths, 2026
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
The main US story going forward is about the giant IPOs and how the market will absorb them, along with potential rotation during the summer months. Healthcare and infrastructure are still my primary bets.
Asia remains the story I’m watching. Japan may follow Korea and Taiwan, but it’s a much larger market, so I wouldn’t expect gains of the same leverage driven magnitude.
As always, we’re holding selective longs where the trend is intact. We’re not leaning into anything new right now though. Nothing looks particularly cheap and at the start of a move, and that’s where most of the big gains tend to be made.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ INDA 0.00%↑
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
The big event of the week was Warsh’s first FOMC. It was a hawkish hold on rates as expected, but the real story was the message, possible framework and balance sheet changes. The 2026 rate cut was removed from the dot plot, and nine of eighteen officials now project at least one hike this year.
The hawkish tilt gave the dollar another push, but the DXY has not yet broken out of its multi-month structure. This remains the most important dynamic right now. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Until then, we’re facing continued pressure, especially on gold. There will be time to get back in and press long, but for us, we’re not there.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: uptrend ➝ sideways
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways ➝ downtrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The stronger dollar and the bifurcated, war-punctured global economy headwind isn’t uniform. Some metals are doing better than others. Silver, platinum and palladium felt it first, now we see some others follow.
Under the surface the picture is mixed. Aluminum and lithium broke to downtrend, joining iron and nickel. What is holding well is copper, uranium, zinc and tin. Much more a supply issue for now rather than strong demand.
The framework is the same, respect the trends, manage risk, position for the highest probability. We’re long where the trends are intact, and stay this way until each individual move is exhausted.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
Well, we got our answer on oil, sort of. The interim understanding came together and the Strait opened, also sort of. Then we got more fighting and signals that the blockade could be reimposed if the terms aren’t met.
So we go into the new week with a framework of a framework, sort of, but no clarity. Like we said, this isn’t going to resolve easily either way, and even in the best case it will take months before energy flows actually normalize.
All that said, the price did the talking last week, as it always does. WTI fell from around 85 down to the high 70s, and Brent dipped below 80 for the first time since March. It sure seems like everybody sold and worse yet, shorted into the that low price, we’ll see what comes next.
Meanwhile, we’re still running on reserve releases and inventories bridging the gap. Producers still aren’t hedging, which means no necessary investment / no new meaningful supply increase for years, no matter what the headlines say.
We’re staying patient, the long-term energy equity positions stay on, we’ll alert if anything changes. In other news, nat gas is keeping its small advance, despite the oil smash, still looks like a trapped opportunity, and coal is consolidating, potentially building another higher low.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot flipped to a hiking bias, seventeen of eighteen now see inflation risk to the upside, and the market is pricing a hike as soon as October.
New Chair Kevin Warsh gutted the statement to 130 words, stripped the easing language, refused to submit his own dot, and started talking up a smaller balance sheet. With May CPI at 4.2%, the highest in three years, this is a committee that has decided its problem is inflation, at least that’s the message for now.
And yet, the structural backdrop I keep coming back to hasn’t moved an inch, more deficits, more issuance, more money creation, more inflation, all of it aimed at the long end. So we still take no longs here.
Globally it’s the same for now, BoJ hiking, the BoE holding with two members dissenting for a hike, the ECB already moved, a synchronized inflation-fighting pivot born of the energy shock. Japan’s 10-year is still up near 2.6%, above its pre-GFC level, with the BoJ now actively tapering JGB purchases.
One nuance to flag, and you’ll want to phrase this your way: the curve actually bear-flattened this week. The 2-year spiked about 16 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest Fed-day jump since 2008, while the 10-year and 30-year barely moved. I read that as a near-term wrinkle, not a change in the structural long-end story, and I’m watching whether the steepening resumes once the front end settles.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The pullback got its catalyst, after the fact. Oil remains the most important short-term dynamic for this sector, and crude started breaking down on the de-escalation headlines. Add a dollar at a one-year high on top and you have a clean overhang across the whole complex.
But here is the funny thing, the speculative flush seems to be over for now, right when the most bearish news for the agricultural prices hit the screen. We respect that price action, this is the volatile, spec-money phase we said it would be.
Still, none of this short term dynamics touches the real story. The fundamentals haven’t changed, the energy and fertilizer problems are still feeding through with uneven impact around the world, and even with a full peaces deal signed tomorrow the long-term damage is already done.
We’ll very likely be higher six to twelve months out, which is exactly why the job right now is to keep dry powder ready for when the trend turns back up. On the individual ags we’re light and patient, still just a quarter position in rice.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 22–26, 2026
Monday, June 22
Economic Events
• 🇭🇷 Holiday: Croatia – Anti-Fascist Struggle Day
• 🇨🇳 03:00 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 13:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada CPI MoM & YoY + Core CPI (May)
• 🇺🇸 15:00 Fed Waller Speaks
• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Earnings – Major Global
• $ATD.A (TSX) Alimentation Couche-Tard – Consumer Staples / Convenience Stores (Circle K) 🇨🇦
• $MTS (ASX) Metcash – Consumer Staples / Australian Wholesale Grocery (IGA) 🇦🇺
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $PMET (TSX) Patriot Battery Metals – Materials / Lithium Junior (Corvette Project, Quebec) 🇨🇦
• $TSTH (SET) Tata Steel Thailand – Materials / Steel 🇹🇭
• $CDPR (TSX-V) Cerro De Pasco Resources – Materials / Peruvian Polymetallic Mining (silver, zinc, lead) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Renewables
• $NESF (LSE) NextEnergy Solar Fund – Renewables / UK Solar Infrastructure 🇬🇧
Earnings – Other
• $4088 (TSE) Air Water – Industrials / Industrial Gases & Chemicals 🇯🇵
• $3IN (LSE) 3i Infrastructure – Infrastructure Investment Trust 🇬🇧
Tuesday, June 23
Economic Events
• 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 Holidays: Estonia National Day, Latvia Midsummer Day
• 🇯🇵 02:30 Japan S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) + BoJ Core CPI YoY
• 🇸🇬 07:00 Singapore Core CPI & CPI YoY (May)
• 🇫🇷 09:15 France HCOB Services & Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 09:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 10:00 Eurozone HCOB Services, Manufacturing & Composite PMI Flash (Jun)
• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK S&P Global Services, Manufacturing & Composite PMI Flash (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 14:15 ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 🇨🇦 15:00 BoC Governor Macklem Speaks
• 🇺🇸 15:45 US S&P Global Services, Manufacturing & Composite PMI Flash (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 19:00 2-Year Note Auction
• 🇺🇸 22:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Earnings – Major US
• $FDX (NYSE) FedEx – Industrials / Global Logistics (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸
• $CCL (NYSE) Carnival – Consumer Discretionary / Cruise Lines 🇺🇸
• $KBH (NYSE) KB Home – Consumer Discretionary / US Homebuilder 🇺🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $WOR (NYSE) Worthington Industries – Industrials / Steel Processing (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $KFY (NYSE) Korn Ferry – Industrials / Executive Recruiting & Consulting 🇺🇸
• $ICLR (NASDAQ) ICON plc – Healthcare / Clinical Research 🇮🇪
Wednesday, June 24
Economic Events
• 🇪🇪 🇱🇹 🇻🇪 Holidays: Estonia Midsummer Day, Lithuania St. John’s Day, Venezuela Battle of Carabobo
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
• 🇹🇭 09:00 Thailand Interest Rate Decision
• 🇩🇪 10:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index + Business Expectations + Current Assessment (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Current Account (Q1) + Building Permits (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US New Home Sales + MoM (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing
• 🇺🇸 19:00 5-Year Note Auction
• 🇺🇸 22:00 Fed Bank Stress Test Results
Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors
• $MU (NASDAQ) Micron Technology – Technology / Memory Semiconductors (Q3 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Major US
• $PAYX (NASDAQ) Paychex – Industrials / Payroll & HR Services (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸
• $JEF (NYSE) Jefferies Financial – Financials / Investment Banking 🇺🇸
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $WS (NYSE) Worthington Steel – Materials / Steel Processing (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Chemicals
• $FUL (NYSE) H.B. Fuller – Materials / Specialty Adhesives (Q2 FY26) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Major Global
• $TCOM (NASDAQ) Trip.com Group – Consumer Discretionary / Chinese Online Travel 🇨🇳
• $BKG (LSE) Berkeley Group – Consumer Discretionary / UK Homebuilder 🇬🇧
• $TRI (Euronext) Trigano – Consumer Discretionary / European RV & Caravan Maker 🇫🇷
Thursday, June 25
Economic Events
• 🇧🇭 🇱🇧 🇵🇰 🇸🇮 Holidays: Bahrain, Lebanon & Pakistan Ashura, Slovenia National Day
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia Employment Change + Unemployment Rate + Full Employment (May)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul)
• 🇪🇸 09:00 Spanish GDP QoQ Final (Q1)
• 🇪🇺 10:00 ECB Economic Bulletin
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY & MoM (May) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US GDP QoQ Final (Q1) + Durable Goods Orders MoM (May) + Personal Spending (May)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Claims
• 🇺🇸 19:00 7-Year Note Auction
• 🇲🇽 21:00 Mexico Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 21:40 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Earnings – Major US
• $DRI (NYSE) Darden Restaurants – Consumer Discretionary / Olive Garden, LongHorn (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸
• $AYI (NYSE) Acuity Brands – Industrials / Lighting & Building Tech 🇺🇸
• $BB (NYSE) BlackBerry – Technology / Cybersecurity & IoT Software 🇨🇦
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $MKC (NYSE) McCormick & Company – Consumer Staples / Spices & Flavors (Q2 FY26) 🇺🇸
• $KIML (Bursa Malaysia) Kim Loong Resources – Consumer Staples / Palm Oil 🇲🇾
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $CMC (NYSE) Commercial Metals – Materials / Steel (Q3 FY26) 🇺🇸
• $BRC (TSX-V) Blackrock Silver – Materials / Silver Junior (Tonopah West, Nevada) 🇨🇦
• $PHOS (TSX-V) First Phosphate – Materials / Phosphate Junior (LFP battery materials) 🇨🇦
• $LI / $AMLIF (TSX) American Lithium – Materials / Lithium Junior 🇨🇦
• $ROS (TSX-V) Roscan Gold – Materials / Gold Junior (Mali) 🇨🇦
• $KDNC (LSE AIM) Cadence Minerals – Materials / Diversified Mining Investments 🇬🇧
• $CTL (LSE AIM) CleanTech Lithium – Materials / Lithium Junior (Chile) 🇬🇧
• $AIR (TSX-V) Clean Air Metals – Materials / Platinum-Palladium-Copper Junior (Ontario) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Energy
• $YINS (Bursa Malaysia) Yinson Holdings – Energy / Offshore Oil & Gas Services (FPSO) 🇲🇾
Earnings – Renewables
• $SEIT (LSE) SDCL Energy Efficiency – Renewables / Energy Efficiency Infrastructure 🇬🇧
Earnings – Major Global
• $HMb (Stockholm) H&M Hennes & Mauritz – Consumer Discretionary / Global Fashion Retail (Q2 H1) 🇸🇪
• $WGO (NYSE) Winnebago Industries – Consumer Discretionary / RV Manufacturer (Q3 FY26) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Other
• $EPAC (NYSE) Enerpac Tool Group – Industrials / Industrial Tools 🇺🇸
• $MEI (NYSE) Methode Electronics – Industrials / Engineered Components 🇺🇸
• $HFD (LSE) Halfords – Consumer Discretionary / UK Auto & Cycling Retail 🇬🇧
Friday, June 26
Economic Events
• 🇧🇭 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Holidays: Bahrain & Pakistan Ashura, India Muharram
• 🇯🇵 01:30 Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Jun)
• 🇫🇷 12:00 France Jobseekers Total (May)
• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil Unemployment Rate (May)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (May)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Goods Trade Balance + Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations 1Y/5Y Final (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 16:30 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 🇺🇸 17:30 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
• 🇺🇸 19:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $AGA (TSX-V) Silver47 Exploration – Materials / Silver Junior (Alaska) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Renewables
• $CGEH (NASDAQ) Capstone Green Energy – Renewables / Microturbine Energy Systems 🇺🇸
• $PYRG (Frankfurt) Pyrum Innovations – Renewables / Tire Pyrolysis Recycling 🇩🇪
Earnings – Other
• $APOG (NASDAQ) Apogee Enterprises – Industrials / Architectural Glass & Coatings (Q1 FY27) 🇺🇸
• $HBMG (XETRA) Hornbach-Baumarkt – Consumer Discretionary / German DIY Retail 🇩🇪