Markets Update – June 15, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome.
When you’re at peace with any outcome, you will experience a carefree, objective state of mind, where you make yourself available to perceive and act upon whatever the market is offering you.”
Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
Quite a week. Opened in the red, sold off a bit more, then bounced back on another peace headline. To be honest, I just want to see how we trade once we get past all this noise.
As you know by now, we are not in the business of telling you where markets are going in the short term. We will leave the predictions to others. What we can do is focus on the dynamics, keep risk management tight, and position for the most probable scenarios.
Now, it is a heavy central bank week ahead with BoJ likely hiking on Tuesday and Kevin Warsh doing his first FOMC on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what message is conveyed there.
The next big question is whether we get a summer rotation. Even a small amount of money coming out of tech would lift a lot of other sectors. It is not that easy though. In this passive flows world big tech just keeps taking most of the money. If rotation does happen, my primary bet would still be healthcare and infrastructure.
Asia is still the one to watch. Korea and Taiwan held in pretty well despite last week’s volatility, and the leverage we discussed has not seriously bitten yet.
As always, we will stay long where the trend is intact, but we are not looking to take on excessive risk at this point.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
The dollar traded around 100 on DXY for yet another week, right on the verge of a major breakout, but that hasn’t happened yet. Still, the pressure on everything else is showing, and quietly keeps building. This is still by far the most important dynamic out there.
Gold has entered a medium-term downtrend, the first time since late 2023. The major support we flagged last week didn’t hold. Bitcoin also remains weak and is sitting on its support zone. Where they move next is now tied to the dollar and yields, at least for now.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Precious metals keep getting hit first by the stronger dollar and the general need for liquidity caused by the Iran war and the developing energy crisis and rising rates. Now base metals are feeling the moderate pressure as well.
Still, the dollar headwind isn’t uniform across the complex. Tin and Nickel lost their short-term uptrends, while Copper recovered quite nicely, so we have first signs of divergence to keep an eye on.
The framework is the same: respect the trends, manage risk. We’re long where the trends are intact, and will stay this way until each individual move is exhausted.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral ➝ negative
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
We went from shooting at each other to some sort of understanding again, or not. Who really knows at this point. I think it’s better to focus on what’s actually happening.
I don’t think this resolves easily either way. We’ll likely keep running on large reserve releases until something actually changes. I’m watching closely and will follow the trend.
The longer I trade, the more I realize how important it is to follow the price rather than the narratives, at least when it comes to short-term trading. The medium-term uptrend in crude is over, for now, WTI fell to around $85 on Friday on the headlines.
We’ll exit from the remaining Brent position if the medium-term trend bends there as it did for WTI, but staying patient with the rest given the structural backdrop. Long-term energy equities, nat gas and coal positions remain for now, we’ll adjust and alert if anything changes.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Just one change all week: 10-year flipped from short-term downtrend back to sideways as yields eased from above 4.5%, CPI didn’t spook the market, everything else stays in medium-term downtrend.
The structural backdrop hasn’t changed, more deficits, more debt issuance, more money creation, and more inflation is what the market keeps trying to price into the long end.
We stay away from any longs and watch the FOMC on Wednesday closely, this is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and how he frames the path matters a lot more than the current rate itself.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The pullback continues, but it has slowed down here. The speculative flush is grinding on, and dollar strength is the obvious overhang.
We respect the price action. The fundamentals haven’t changed; the energy and fertilizer crisis is still feeding through, with unequal impact in different parts of the world.
Now, even in the case of peace tomorrow, the long-term supply damage is already done. We’ll likely be higher 6-12 months from now, but we need dry powder to be ready when we trend up again.
On individual ags, we only have 1/4 soybean oil and 1/4 rice left.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 15–19, 2026
Monday, June 15
Economic Events
• 🇦🇷 🇧🇲 🇨🇴 Holidays: National Day (Argentina), National Heroes Day (Bermuda), Sacred Heart (Colombia)
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan GDP QoQ Final (Q1) + GDP Price Index YoY + Current Account (Apr)
• 🇨🇭 08:30 Switzerland PPI MoM (May)
• 🇮🇳 08:30 India WPI Inflation YoY (May)
• 🇪🇺 09:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Trade Balance (Apr) + Industrial Production MoM (Apr)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 15:15 Industrial Production MoM & YoY (May)
Earnings – Consumer Staples
• $COLR (Euronext Brussels) Colruyt Group – Consumer Staples / Belgian Grocery (Q4 Earnings Release) 🇧🇪
Earnings – Other
• $3IN (LSE) 3i Infrastructure – Infrastructure Investment Trust 🇬🇧
Tuesday, June 16
Economic Events
• 🇮🇲 Many Islamic markets closed – Islamic New Year (Hijri)
• 🇨🇳 04:00 China Industrial Production YoY, Unemployment Rate, Fixed Asset Investment (May)
• 🇯🇵 05:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision – expected hike to 1.00% from 0.75%
• 🇯🇵 08:30 BoJ Press Conference
• 🇦🇺 06:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Wages YoY (Q1) + ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 11:00 German ZEW Current Conditions & Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Import / Export Price Index MoM (May) + Housing Starts + Building Permits (May)
• 🇺🇸 19:00 20-Year Bond Auction
• 🇺🇸 22:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $WLY (NYSE) John Wiley & Sons – Communication Services / Academic & Professional Publishing 🇺🇸
• $GRGD (TSX) Groupe Dynamite – Consumer Discretionary / Women’s Apparel (Garage, Dynamite) 🇨🇦
• $LZB (NYSE) La-Z-Boy – Consumer Discretionary / Furniture (release after close, call Wed 8:30am ET) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $ADW.A / $ADW.B (TSX) Andrew Peller – Consumer Staples / Canadian Wine Producer (release after close, call Wed 10am ET) 🇨🇦
Wednesday, June 17
Economic Events
• 🇮🇸 🇲🇾 Holidays: Iceland Independence Day, Malaysia Hijri New Year
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan Trade Balance + Exports YoY (May)
• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK CPI MoM & YoY (May) + PPI Input MoM
• 🇸🇪 09:30 Sweden Interest Rate Decision
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone CPI MoM, YoY & Core CPI YoY Final (May)
• 🇺🇸 11:00 IEA Monthly Report
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 Pending Home Sales MoM (May) + Business Inventories (Apr)
• 🇺🇸 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing
• 🇺🇸 20:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Statement + Economic Projections + Dot Plot
• 🇺🇸 20:30 FOMC Press Conference (Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair)
• 🇧🇷 23:30 Brazil Interest Rate Decision
Earnings – Technology & Manufacturing
• $JBL (NYSE) Jabil Inc – Technology / Electronics Manufacturing Services (AI infrastructure) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $KMX (NYSE) CarMax – Consumer Discretionary / Used Car Retail 🇺🇸
Thursday, June 18
Economic Events
• 🇪🇬 Holiday: Egypt – Islamic New Year (Hijri)
• 🇳🇿 00:45 New Zealand GDP QoQ (Q1)
• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Claimant Count, Average Earnings (Apr/May)
• 🇨🇭 09:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2) + Monetary Policy Assessment
• 🇮🇩 09:30 Indonesia Interest Rate Decision
• 🇳🇴 10:00 Norway Interest Rate Decision
• 🇹🇼 10:00 Taiwan Interest Rate Decision (Q2)
• 🇬🇧 13:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision + MPC Vote Split + Meeting Minutes
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Initial Jobless Claims (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US Leading Index MoM (May)
• 🇺🇸 19:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
Earnings – Technology & Consulting
• $ACN (NYSE) Accenture – Technology / Consulting & Managed Services 🇮🇪
Earnings – Consumer Staples
• $KR (NYSE) Kroger – Consumer Staples / US Grocery 🇺🇸
• $TSCO (LSE) / $TSCDY Tesco – Consumer Staples / UK Grocery (Q1 Trading Statement) 🇬🇧
• $EMP.A (TSX) Empire Company – Consumer Staples / Canadian Grocery (Sobeys, Safeway, Foodland) 🇨🇦
Friday, June 19
Economic Events
• 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇩🇰 🇫🇮 🇭🇰 🇸🇪 🇹🇼 Holidays: US Juneteenth, China Dragon Boat Festival, Nordic Midsummer, HK/Taiwan Tuen Ng / Dragon Boat
• 🇯🇵 01:30 Japan National Core CPI YoY (May) + National CPI MoM
• 🇯🇵 01:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany PPI MoM (May)
• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK Retail Sales MoM & YoY (May) + Core Retail Sales
• 🇷🇺 12:30 Russia Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales (Apr/May)
• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Earnings – Mining & Metals
• $PMET (TSX) Patriot Battery Metals – Materials / Lithium Junior (Corvette Project, Quebec) 🇨🇦