Markets Update – June 1, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“I think success has to do with finding and following one’s calling regardless of financial gain.” - Ed Seykota
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
After the record surge from early April, we are now consolidating at the highs, and the question for me is whether the rotation we discussed will play out during the summer. I’ll be watching intra-S&P dynamics, the Dow, which has just broken out, and small caps.
Developed markets ex-US are finally catching up. Germany’s DAX went to uptrend and is setting up to make new all-time highs. Korea and Taiwan are still pushing in mania territory, but the broader Asian picture is mixed. China/Hang Seng remains in downtrend, and India is still weaker.
In the positions we hold, we will stay until the trend is intact. We’re already trading rotation and looking for great single-stock opportunities. What we certainly won’t do is sell or short uptrends.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
We’re now whipped around by news almost every single day, and that mostly affects the oil. Oil up, dollar up, oil down, dollar down, that was the dynamic, but that correlation is weaker lately.
The dollar remains in uptrend, but it hasn’t broken out. The fiscal backdrop, Fed easing, and the move to short-end debt are dollar-negative, but the energy crisis dynamics and strong inflows to the US are slightly winning out, for now at least.
Other currencies are mixed; most are weaker lately against the dollar, particularly in those countries dependent on energy imports. What is quite interesting here is the continued strength in the Swiss Franc, despite zero rates, carry trades, and central bank / SNB signaling readiness to intervene in the forex markets. There are lots of risky bets out there funded by short / borrowed Franc; it’d be interesting to see what happens if these are forced to unwind.
Managed money has largely left the gold trade. It’s not yet as extreme as in October 2022 or September 2023; that was full capitulation, but we might get there. Narratives aside, we will follow the trends above anything else.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ uptrend
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: neutral ➝ positive
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Base metals have been outperforming previous metals lately. The reasons are quite straightforward.
First, precious metals had lately one of the best performances in history, so they are taking a breather.
Secondly, the Iran war and oil spike have hit the Middle East, and countries in Asia first, both large holders of gold, silver, PGMs, all large holders for investment and savings purposes. That likely will pass, as all short-term dynamics eventually do.
Finally, the broader thesis on the structural drivers has not changed. Decades of underinvestment in base metals are showing, particularly in copper. We also have now an energy crisis that has an impact on supply that is still in front of us, all at the time when governments are trying to drive the industrial buildout.
We’re long the base metals, trends are intact. We will let the markets tell us when each individual move is exhausted.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
Crude pulled back last week on yet another news. This time it was about lifting the naval blockade. I don’t know if it’s true. It doesn’t seem to be happening right now, and markets don’t seem to care anymore.
The Iran conflict has not materially changed, but the price is telling us something. Maybe reserves releases are larger than expected, or maybe the speculative money is running away from the trade. Likely both. Either way, I don’t think it’ll be that easy, but I am watching closely and will follow the trend.
We’ve had interesting developments in natural gas. The medium-term went from downtrend to sideways, the first step of what could become a larger move. It may take more time, but it is usually a good idea to buy cheap and stay with the trend. The structural setup remains compelling.
In any case, we will adjust the oil position if the short-term weakness continues. The medium-term uptrend in crude remains intact, so for now we’re patient. The same goes for energy equities. We’ve also taken a starter position in natural gas. As to coal, we’re still long. The trend is clear.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Treasuries got a small reprieve last week, it fits with the broader pattern: energy down, yields down, and bonds get bid a little. Still, nothing has fundamentally changed just yet. All maturities remain in medium-term downtrend.
The structural backdrop remains. The market is anticipating the obvious government reaction to any crisis, or even no crisis, which is almost always more debt issuance, more money creation, and more inflation.
Japan’s 10-year is still holding above 2.5 percent, higher than pre-GFC. UK yields pulled back, 10-year may be retesting the recent breakout here. In any case, I stay away from any longs in the bond space. I don’t read the recent reprievei as the start of a new trend, we’ll see.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The pullback we’ve discussed and were expecting in agricultural commodities is materializing. Last week, we warned that the broader complex would likely pull back in case of oil weakness. That is exactly what is happening, and managed money is running for the hills, with the largest outflows in a long time.
While we see it as an opportunity and will look to add back what we closed on the last spike, we’ll also respect the trends. The fundamental problems have not changed yet. The energy and fertilizer crisis is still feeding through. Even in the case of peace tomorrow, the long-term damage to supply is already done.
The medium-term picture is still largely intact across the complex. We’re long with a core broad position that follows the agriculture index, and we’re trading the individual single positions where the trend supports it. The longer-term thesis is intact, the near-term is just extremely noisy.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CORN – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 1–5, 2026
Monday, June 1
Economic Events
• 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI & Composite PMI (May) – reported overnight
• 🇬🇧 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
• 🇪🇺 Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
• 🇺🇸 15:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (May)
Earnings – Technology
• $HPE (NYSE) Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Technology / Networking, AI Infrastructure 🇺🇸
• $CRDO (NASDAQ) Credo Technology – Technology / AI Connectivity Semiconductors 🇺🇸
• $SAIC (NASDAQ) Science Applications International – Technology / Government IT Services 🇺🇸
Earnings – Real Estate
• $SRE (LSE) Sirius Real Estate – Real Estate / German & UK Industrial Parks 🇬🇧
Tuesday, June 2
Economic Events
• 🇦🇺 06:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland CPI MoM & YoY (May)
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash YoY & Core CPI Flash YoY (May) + Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) + Factory Orders MoM (Apr)
Earnings – Technology
• $PANW (NASDAQ) Palo Alto Networks – Technology / Cybersecurity 🇺🇸
• $GTLB (NASDAQ) GitLab – Technology / DevSecOps Platform 🇺🇸
Earnings – Energy
• $BWLP (NYSE / OSE) BW LPG – Energy / LPG Shipping (VLGC) 🇸🇬
Earnings – Industrials
• $DCI (NYSE) Donaldson – Industrials / Filtration Products 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer & Retail
• $DG (NYSE) Dollar General – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸
• $ULTA (NASDAQ) Ulta Beauty – Consumer Discretionary / Specialty Beauty Retail 🇺🇸
• $SIG (NYSE) Signet Jewelers – Consumer Discretionary / Diamond Jewelry Retail 🇺🇸
• $VSCO (NYSE) Victoria’s Secret – Consumer Discretionary / Specialty Apparel 🇺🇸
Wednesday, June 3
Economic Events
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1)
• 🇨🇭 Switzerland Q1 GDP QoQ & YoY
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone PPI MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Trade Balance (Apr)
• 🇺🇸 14:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (May)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Trade Balance (Apr) + Initial Jobless Claims
• 🇺🇸 15:45 S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 ISM Services PMI & Prices (May)
• 🇨🇦 15:45 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement
Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors
• $AVGO (NASDAQ) Broadcom – Technology / AI Semiconductors & Software 🇺🇸
• $CRWD (NASDAQ) CrowdStrike – Technology / Cybersecurity 🇺🇸
• $VEEV (NYSE) Veeva Systems – Technology / Life Sciences Cloud 🇺🇸
• $AI (NYSE) C3.ai – Technology / Enterprise AI Software 🇺🇸
Earnings – Healthcare
• $MDT (NYSE) Medtronic – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇮🇪
Earnings – Consumer & Retail
• $ITX (BME) / $IDEXY Inditex – Consumer Discretionary / Fast Fashion (Zara) 🇪🇸
• $M (NYSE) Macy’s – Consumer Discretionary / Department Stores 🇺🇸
• $FIVE (NASDAQ) Five Below – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸
• $OLLI (NASDAQ) Ollie’s Bargain Outlet – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸
• $PVH (NYSE) PVH Corp – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel (Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger) 🇺🇸
Thursday, June 4
Economic Events
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Trade Balance & Factory Orders MoM (Apr)
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Apr)
• 🇪🇺 14:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision + Press Conference 14:45
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Initial Jobless Claims + Trade Balance (Apr) + Unit Labor Costs (Q1)
• 🇺🇸 17:00 Crude Oil Inventories
Earnings – Technology
• $DOCU (NASDAQ) Docusign – Technology / E-Signature & Agreement Management 🇺🇸
• $IOT (NYSE) Samsara – Technology / Connected Operations Platform 🇺🇸
• $RBRK (NYSE) Rubrik – Technology / Cyber Resilience & Data Backup 🇺🇸
• $TTAN (NASDAQ) ServiceTitan – Technology / Trades Industry SaaS 🇺🇸
• $GWRE (NYSE) Guidewire Software – Technology / P&C Insurance Platform 🇺🇸
• $CIEN (NYSE) Ciena – Technology / Optical Networking 🇺🇸
• $PL (NYSE) Planet Labs – Technology / Earth Observation Satellites 🇺🇸
Earnings – Energy & Power
• $AGX (NYSE) Argan – Industrials / Power Plant EPC Services 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Staples & Industrials
• $BFA / $BFB (NYSE) Brown-Forman – Consumer Staples / Spirits (Jack Daniel’s) 🇺🇸
• $SAP (TSX) Saputo – Consumer Staples / Global Dairy Processing 🇨🇦
• $TTC (NYSE) Toro Company – Industrials / Outdoor Maintenance Equipment 🇺🇸
• $MTO (LSE) Mitie Group – Industrials / Facilities Management UK 🇬🇧
Earnings – Real Estate & Housing
• $1928 (TSE) / $SKHSY Sekisui House – Real Estate / Japanese Homebuilder 🇯🇵
Earnings – Healthcare
• $COO (NASDAQ) CooperCompanies – Healthcare / Medical Devices, Contact Lenses & Fertility 🇺🇸
Earnings – Consumer Discretionary
• $LULU (NASDAQ) Lululemon Athletica – Consumer Discretionary / Athletic Apparel 🇺🇸
Friday, June 5
Economic Events
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Industrial Production MoM (Apr)
• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone GDP QoQ Final & YoY Final (Q1) + Employment Change Final (Q1)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (May)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY (May)
• 🇺🇸 21:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq
Earnings – Industrials
• $ABM (NYSE) ABM Industries – Industrials / Facility Solutions 🇺🇸