Markets Update – July 6, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“While it’s good to use your head to enter and exit trades, you make the big money using your other end… sitting tight on winning positions. If you want big profits, you want big trends, and to trade long-term.” - Ed Seykota
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
We’ll keep it simple and continue with the rotation trade, until it stops working that is. Leaning into healthcare and infrastructure, and chosen equities in these sectors, these stay our primary bets.
Otherwise, the same approach as always: hold where the trend is intact, and don’t chase. As to taking a new big position, well, nothing looks particularly cheap yet and at the start of a move / turning to uptrend, and that’s the setup where the real money is made.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: downtrend ➝ sideways
• DAX – GERMANY: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
The dollar’s breakout is intact, but it stopped going straight up last week. It’s retesting now. No doubt, the soft payroll print took some of the momentum out.
We’ll stay flexible. So far, this reads as a pause and digest after the breakout, not a reversal, and we treat it as consolidation until the trend says otherwise.
Gold got some traction here. It remains highly correlated to the dollar. There’d be a time to press long again, we’re still not there but are getting quite close.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ sideways
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: downtrend ➝ sideways
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: negative ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The picture under the surface is starting to split. On one side, the first real signs of stabilization: zinc is back up to sideways, lithium the same, selloff exhausts itself. On the other, the weakness keeps rotating, nickel, tin, aluminum trying to find new support.
Copper holds well, still in a medium-term uptrend, this is much more a supply story than a demand one, for now. The dollar at cycle highs is the headwind sitting on the whole complex, let’s see if this changes. The framework doesn’t change: respect the trends, manage the risk, wait for long opportunities now.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
We got the answer: crude lost its medium-term footing, WTI down into the high 60s and Brent around $70 now, both back at pre-war levels and their lowest since late February.
The main cause is that Hormuz flows are back now, the UAE is back to pre-war exports, the Saudis are pushing barrels into Asia, Iranian exports jumped past forty million barrels once the blockade came off. Supply came back and did the talking, for now.
But look under the flush. US crude stockpiles just fell down again, twelve straight weekly draws. The physical market isn’t loose, the headline flows are. Global reserves will have to be filled at some point as well.
Producers still aren’t hedging at these prices, so there will be no new meaningful supply coming for years no matter what the tape says this week, underinvestment continues.
The long-term energy equity positions are hedged and stay on. Nat gas is still holding its small advance, and coal has retraced, may be building a new higher low.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
The long-end bid didn’t last; in fact, last week the whole curve rolled over again. In plain terms, yields backed up across the board even with weak jobs and oil collapsing, which on the old playbook should have pulled them lower.
That’s the tell. Warsh is telling the market to trade the data, not his guidance, and coming into the payroll print the pricing actually carried a real chance of a July hike. The soft number took the edge off late; the 2-year slipped a few basis points on the day, but it didn’t change the weekly direction.
The structural story hasn’t moved: more deficits, more issuance, more supply hitting the long end, and now a curve that can’t hold a rally even when the growth data disappoints. UK gilts are back near 4.8%, and Japan’s long end is still elevated. We take no longs here.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The turn we’ve been building toward broadened out this week. Sugar joined cocoa and coffee in a short-term uptrend now. We’re long all three, plus rice.
Grains are still consolidating, but wheat recovered a medium-term uptrend, and corn stabilized for now. Keeping dry powder here, staying patient.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• CORN – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – July 6 – 10, 2026
Monday, July 6
Economic Events
• 🇨🇿🇰🇿🇱🇹 Holidays: Czech Republic (Jan Hus Day); Kazakhstan (Day of the Capital); Lithuania (Bank Holiday)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – Factory Orders MoM (May)
• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK – S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 15:45 US – S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (Jun, final)
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Prices & Employment (Jun)
• 🇨🇦 16:30 Canada – BoC Business Outlook Survey
• 🇺🇸 17:00 US – Fed Waller speaks
• 🇬🇧 18:45 UK – BoE MPC Member Mann speaks
• 🇺🇸 21:30 US – CFTC speculative net positions – Gold +181.3K, Crude Oil +114.6K, EUR +30.2K, GBP −105.7K, JPY −146.1K, AUD −13.0K, BRL +43.7K, S&P 500 −35.4K, Nasdaq −9.1K
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $2280 (Tadawul) Almarai – Consumer Staples / Dairy & Food 🇸🇦
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $NWST (TSX-V) Northwest Copper – Materials / Copper Junior (British Columbia) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Renewables
• $EAAS (LSE AIM) eEnergy Group – Renewables / Energy Efficiency & Solar Services 🇬🇧
Earnings – Major Global
• $HBM (XETRA) Hornbach Baumarkt – Consumer Discretionary / German DIY Retail 🇩🇪
Tuesday, July 7
Economic Events
• 🇯🇵 01:30 Japan – Household Spending YoY & MoM (May)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – Industrial Production MoM (May)
• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK – Halifax House Price Index (Jun)
• 🇬🇧 11:30 UK – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes + Financial Stability Report
• 🇬🇧 12:30 UK – BoE Gov Bailey speaks
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada – Trade Balance (May); 🇺🇸 US – Trade Balance (May)
• 🇨🇦 16:00 Canada – Ivey PMI (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 17:00 US – NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 18:00 US – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – 3-Year Note Auction
• 🇺🇸 22:30 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors
• $PENG (NASDAQ) Penguin Solutions – Technology / Memory & AI Infrastructure 🇺🇸
Earnings – Major Global
• $QNBK (QSE) Qatar National Bank – Financials / Banking 🇶🇦
Wednesday, July 8
Economic Events
• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan – Current Account (May)
• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia – Building Approvals MoM (May)
• 🇳🇿 04:00 New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement & Press Conference
• 🇸🇪 08:00 Sweden – CPI YoY & MoM (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 11:30 Germany – 10-Year Bund Auction
• 🇩🇪 13:30 Germany – Buba President Nagel speaks
• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil – Retail Sales YoY & MoM (May)
• 🇺🇸 16:30 US – Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories
• 🇵🇱 18:04 Poland – NBP Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – 10-Year Note Auction
• 🇺🇸 20:00 US – FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 🇺🇸 21:00 US – Consumer Credit (May)
Earnings – Major US
• $LEVI (NYSE) Levi Strauss – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel 🇺🇸
• $PSMT (NASDAQ) PriceSmart – Consumer Staples / Warehouse Retail (Latin America) 🇺🇸
• $AZZ (NYSE) AZZ Inc – Industrials / Hot-Dip Galvanizing & Metal Coatings 🇺🇸
Earnings – Major Global
• $9983 (TSE) Fast Retailing – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel (Uniqlo) 🇯🇵
• $KOG (Oslo) Kongsberg Gruppen – Aerospace & Defense / Maritime & Defense Tech 🇳🇴
• $CCAP (EGX) Qalaa Holdings – Diversified / Energy, Agri & Cement (Egypt) 🇪🇬
• $KOF (Euronext) Kaufman & Broad – Consumer Discretionary / French Homebuilder 🇫🇷
Thursday, July 9
Economic Events
• 🇦🇷 Holiday: Argentina (Independence Day)
• 🇨🇳 03:30 China – CPI YoY & MoM, PPI YoY (Jun)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – Trade Balance (May)
• 🇲🇾 09:00 Malaysia – BNM Interest Rate Decision
• 🇪🇺 12:00 Euro Area – Eurogroup Meetings
• 🇪🇺 13:30 Euro Area – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
• 🇲🇽 14:00 Mexico – CPI YoY & MoM (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 14:30 US – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
• 🇺🇸 15:00 US – FOMC Member Williams speaks
• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – Existing Home Sales (Jun)
• 🇲🇽 17:00 Mexico – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 🇺🇸 19:01 US – 30-Year Bond Auction
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $PEP (NASDAQ) PepsiCo – Consumer Staples / Beverages & Snacks 🇺🇸
• $BARN (SIX) Barry Callebaut – Consumer Staples / Cocoa & Chocolate Processing 🇨🇭
• $SZU (Frankfurt) Südzucker – Consumer Staples / Sugar & Starch 🇩🇪
• $AGR (Vienna) AGRANA – Consumer Staples / Sugar, Starch & Fruit 🇦🇹
• $2809 (TSE) Kewpie – Consumer Staples / Food & Condiments 🇯🇵
• $SMPL (NASDAQ) Simply Good Foods – Consumer Staples / Nutrition Snacks 🇺🇸
Earnings – Energy
• $VIST (NYSE) Vista Energy – Energy / Shale Oil & Gas (Vaca Muerta, Argentina) 🇦🇷
• $BNOR (Oslo) BlueNord – Energy / North Sea Oil & Gas 🇳🇴
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $TMQ (NYSE American) Trilogy Metals – Materials / Copper-Zinc Developer (Alaska) 🇺🇸
• $PTM (NYSE American) Platinum Group Metals – Materials / Platinum-Palladium Developer (South Africa) 🇿🇦
Earnings – Chemicals
• $4187 (TSE) Osaka Organic Chemical – Materials / Specialty Chemicals 🇯🇵
• $WDFC (NASDAQ) WD-40 – Materials / Specialty Lubricants 🇺🇸
Earnings – Shipping
• $SNI (Oslo) Stolt-Nielsen – Industrials / Chemical Tankers & Terminals 🇳🇴
Earnings – Renewables
• $BONHR (Oslo) Bonheur – Renewables / Wind & Offshore Energy 🇳🇴
Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors
• $3008 (TWSE) Largan Precision – Technology / Optical Lenses 🇹🇼
Earnings – Major Global
• $3382 (TSE) Seven & i Holdings – Consumer Staples / Convenience Retail 🇯🇵
• $TCS (NSE) Tata Consultancy Services – Technology / IT Services 🇮🇳
• $PCO (Warsaw) Pepco Group – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇵🇱
Friday, July 10
Economic Events
• 🇳🇿 Holiday: New Zealand (Bank Holiday)
• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – CPI MoM & YoY (Jun, final)
• 🇫🇷 08:45 France – CPI MoM & HICP MoM (Jun, final)
• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland – SECO Consumer Climate (Jun)
• 🌍 11:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil – CPI YoY (Jun)
• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada – Unemployment Rate, Employment Change & Building Permits (Jun / May)
• 🇷🇺 18:00 Russia – CPI YoY & MoM (Jun)
• 🇺🇸 18:00 US – WASDE Crop Report
• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
Earnings – Major US
• $DAL (NYSE) Delta Air Lines – Industrials / Airlines (Q2 season opener) 🇺🇸
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
• $4992 (TSE) Hokko Chemical – Materials / Crop Protection & Agrochemicals 🇯🇵
Earnings – Chemicals
• $EMSN (SIX) EMS-Chemie – Materials / Specialty Polymers 🇨🇭
Earnings – Metals & Mining
• $ELK (Oslo) Elkem – Materials / Silicon & Silicones 🇳🇴
Earnings – Renewables
• $IREDA (NSE) IREDA – Renewables / Green Energy Financing (India) 🇮🇳
Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors
• $2408 (TWSE) Nanya Technology – Technology / DRAM Memory 🇹🇼
Earnings – Major Global
• $8267 (TSE) AEON – Consumer Staples / Retail 🇯🇵
• $6506 (TSE) Yaskawa Electric – Industrials / Robotics & Automation 🇯🇵
Thanks Kacper!