Markets Update – July 13, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“To follow the good principles and not let fear, greed, and hope interfere with your trading is tough. You are swimming upstream against human nature.”
Richard Dennis
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
We keep it simple, continue the rotation trade, until it stops working, that is.
Leaning away from large hyperscalers, which are determined to spend and issue as much debt and shares as possible to win the AI race. Let’s see if massive passive flows can absorb all that, because if they can’t, then we’ll enter a more structural problem.
A lot of money is changing hands here, the memory sector is an obvious beneficiary, and so are the other infrastructure companies related to the datacenter buildout.
Do we need so much? Maybe, maybe not, we’ll let the market do the talking and respect the trends. After all, these are cyclicals and always seem the cheapest at the top. Let’s see, until it’s resolved, we’ll stay tactical with the trading.
South Korea got weaker lately, we took one short and booked a small profit, we’ll see where we go here. SK Hynix IPO was on Friday, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see more vol to the upside and downside, in fact, I expect it.
As to taking a new big position, well, nothing looks particularly cheap yet and at the start of a move / turning to uptrend, and that’s the setup where the real money is made.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend ➝ sideways
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: sideways ➝ downtrend
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: neutral ➝ negative
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
The dollar’s breakout is being tested now for the second week. No doubt, the soft payroll print took some of the momentum out.
We’ll stay flexible. So far, this reads as a pause and digest, not a reversal, and we will treat it as consolidation until the trend says otherwise.
Gold got some traction here. It remains highly correlated to the dollar. There’d be a time to press long, we’re still not there but may be getting quite close.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ uptrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ sideways
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ downtrend
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: neutral ➝ positive
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The stabilization is broadening. We’re seeing first signs of selloff exhaustion.
Copper escaped the short-term downtrend, so did palladium, iron ore, and tin. Zinc actually resumed its uptrend. Let’s see if silver, lithium, and nickel can do the same soon.
Still, it’s for now about the dollar. It’s around the cycle highs, and that headwind is affecting the whole complex. Let’s see if this changes.
The framework doesn’t change: respect the trends, manage the risk, and wait for long opportunities now.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
• IRON ORE, 61% – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
Here we go again.
They’re shooting at each other, and Hormuz is closed, again. Or at least it seems so now. I’m certainly not in any inner circle and can only search for reliable information, just like most of us.
And of course, we’ll have some news coming out before futures open ..
Thankfully, we don’t have to rely on noise, we do have the charts, trends, and positioning. In any case, these are often more telling than constant social media posts.
Now, we’ve pulled back to pre-war levels, the lowest since late February. All the stuck oil temporarily flushed the system. It does explain enormous, record crack spreads . But now may be setting up for round 2 regarding price increases.
US crude stockpiles fell down again, three months in a row now, meaning they kept releasing despite lower prices. Others are drawing as well, much will depend on China now.
In short, the physical market isn’t loose. The headline flows are. Global reserves will have to be filled at some point as well.
Producers still aren’t hedging at these prices, so there will be no new meaningful supply coming for years no matter what the tape says this week.
Underinvestment continues. Our long-term energy equity positions are hedged and stay on.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
Same thing again, the whole curve is rolling over, again.
Warsh told the market to trade the data, not his guidance, so let’s have a look. Yields did pull back with weak jobs and oil weakness, but only for a very short while. In the old playbook, they should go way, way lower.
But they didn’t; markets see the inevitable easing reaction to any serious crisis, and they are pricing risks of Iran war escalation.
But it’s not only US, this story is global, and it’s structural: more deficits, more issuance, more supply hitting the long end, and bonds that can’t hold a rally, even when data suggests they should.
Now, Japan did something interesting last week; some even call it a bazooka; it’s moving to redirect state pension funds to invest domestically. It’s financial repression, make no mistake; for now, it helped lower the yields; let’s see for how long.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-DAY FED FUNDS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
It sure seems like we’ve entered round two in the ags.
Almost all of them are trending higher again. Crazy gains in cocoa and coffee, sugar may catch up, rice keeps pushing, wheat is waking up, corn and beans are also looking better.
We’re already long, mostly softs, but now we’ve spread our wings and went long when trends started to get established. That’s the system. Let’s see how far we’ll go this time around.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• CANOLA – CANADA: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – July 13–17, 2026
All times GMT+2 (CEST).
Monday, July 13
Economic Events
All Day 🇲🇳 Mongolia – Naadam Festival (holiday); 🇲🇪 Montenegro – National Day
09:00 🇹🇷 Turkey – Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) (May)
11:25 🇺🇸 US – FOMC Member Bowman speaks
12:00 🌍 OPEC Meeting
12:30 🇮🇳 India – CPI (YoY) (Jun)
18:30 🇺🇸 US – Fed Waller speaks
20:00 🇬🇧 UK – BoE MPC Member Pill speaks
20:00 🇺🇸 US – Federal Budget Balance (Jun)
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
$1377 (TSE) Sakata Seed – Agriculture / Vegetable & Flower Seeds 🇯🇵
$1376 (TSE) Kaneko Seeds – Agriculture / Seeds & Agri-inputs 🇯🇵
(Oslo) Aker BioMarine – Agriculture / Krill & Marine Ingredients 🇳🇴
Earnings – Energy
(TSX) PrairieSky Royalty – Energy / Oil & Gas Royalties (Canada) 🇨🇦
(NYSE) Vista Energy – Energy / Shale Oil & Gas (Vaca Muerta, Argentina) 🇦🇷
Earnings – Metals & Mining
(NYSE American) /
(TSX) Platinum Group Metals – Materials / PGM Developer (South Africa) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Chemicals & Materials
$1301 (TWSE) Formosa Plastics – Materials / Petrochemicals 🇹🇼
(SIX) EMS-Chemie – Materials / Specialty Polymers 🇨🇭
(Euronext) Tonnellerie François Frères – Materials / Oak Cooperage & Barrels (forestry-linked) 🇫🇷
(NSE) Nuvoco Vistas – Materials / Cement (India) 🇮🇳
Earnings – Shipping
(Oslo) Kongsberg Maritime – Industrials / Maritime & Marine Tech 🇳🇴
Earnings – Major US / Global
(NASDAQ) Fastenal – Industrials / Distribution (US) 🇺🇸
(XETRA) Hornbach-Baumarkt – Consumer Discretionary / German DIY Retail 🇩🇪
Tuesday, July 14
Economic Events
03:30 🇦🇺 Australia – NAB Business Confidence (Jun)
06:30 🇯🇵 Japan – Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
08:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland – PPI (MoM) (Jun)
08:30 🇮🇳 India – WPI Inflation (YoY) (Jun)
09:28 🇨🇳 China – Trade Balance, Exports & Imports (Jun)
10:00 🇨🇳 China – New Loans (Jun)
14:15 🇺🇸 US – ADP Employment Change (Weekly)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – CPI & Core CPI (MoM/YoY) (Jun)
18:40 🇺🇸 US – Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks; 20:55 FOMC Member Bowman speaks
22:00 🇬🇧 UK – BoE Gov Bailey speaks
22:30 🇺🇸 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
(B3) Camil Alimentos – Consumer Staples / Rice, Sugar & Grains (Brazil) 🇧🇷
(NSE) Dhampur Bio Organics – Consumer Staples / Sugar & Bio-based Products (India) 🇮🇳
$2292 (TSE) S Foods – Consumer Staples / Meat & Protein 🇯🇵
$3139 (TSE) Lacto Japan – Consumer Staples / Dairy Trading 🇯🇵
Earnings – Energy
(Oslo) Aker Solutions – Energy / Oilfield Services & Engineering 🇳🇴
Earnings – Forestry
(Oslo) Norske Skog – Materials / Paper & Pulp 🇳🇴
Earnings – Major US (Q2 bank season opens)
(NYSE) JPMorgan Chase – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Bank of America – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Goldman Sachs – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Wells Fargo – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Citigroup – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
Earnings – Major Global
(NYSE) América Móvil – Communications / Telecom (Latin America) 🇲🇽
(NASDAQ) Ericsson – Technology / Telecom Equipment 🇸🇪
Wednesday, July 15
Economic Events
04:00 🇨🇳 China – GDP (Q2), Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment & Unemployment (Jun)
08:00 🇸🇪 Sweden – CPI (MoM/YoY) (Jun)
09:00 🇪🇸 Spain – CPI & HICP (YoY) (Jun)
11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area – Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – PPI & Core PPI (MoM) (Jun); NY Empire State Index (Jul)
14:30 🇨🇦 Canada – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May)
14:45 🇺🇸 US – FOMC Member Williams speaks
15:45 🇨🇦 Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference
16:30 🇺🇸 US – Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories
18:00 🇩🇪 Germany – Buba President Nagel speaks
20:00 🇺🇸 US – Fed Beige Book
Earnings – Energy
(Oslo) Aker BP – Energy / Oil & Gas (North Sea) 🇳🇴
(NSE) Mangalore Refinery – Energy / Refining (India) 🇮🇳
(QSE) Qatar Fuel (WOQOD) – Energy / Fuel Distribution 🇶🇦
Earnings – Metals & Mining
(NYSE American) GoldMining – Materials / Gold Developer 🇺🇸
(SGX Catalist) Fortress Minerals – Materials / Iron Ore (Malaysia) 🇸🇬
(TSX) Avalon Advanced Materials – Materials / Lithium & Rare Earths (Canada) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Chemicals
(NSE) Himadri Speciality Chemical – Materials / Carbon Black & Specialty Chemicals (India) 🇮🇳
Earnings – Renewables
(Oslo) Nel ASA – Renewables / Hydrogen Electrolysers 🇳🇴
Earnings – Shipping
(Oslo) Solstad Maritime – Shipping / Offshore Support Vessels 🇳🇴
(Oslo) Solstad Offshore – Shipping / Offshore Vessels 🇳🇴
Earnings – Forestry
(LSE AIM) James Cropper – Materials / Specialty Paper & Advanced Materials 🇬🇧
Earnings – Agriculture & Food
(NYSE) Conagra Brands – Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods 🇺🇸
(Stockholm) Axfood – Consumer Staples / Food Retail (Sweden) 🇸🇪
B (Stockholm) Cloetta – Consumer Staples / Confectionery 🇸🇪
Earnings – Major US / Global
(NASDAQ) ASML – Technology / Semiconductor Lithography 🇳🇱
(NYSE) Johnson & Johnson – Healthcare / Pharma & Devices 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Elevance Health – Healthcare / Health Insurance 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Morgan Stanley – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
(NYSE) BlackRock – Financials / Asset Management 🇺🇸
(NASDAQ) J.B. Hunt – Industrials / Freight & Logistics 🇺🇸
Thursday, July 16
Economic Events
08:00 🇬🇧 UK – GDP (MoM), Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance (May)
11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area – Trade Balance (May)
14:00 🇧🇷 Brazil – Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) (May)
14:15 🇨🇦 Canada – Housing Starts (Jun)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
16:00 🇺🇸 US – Pending Home Sales (Jun) & Business Inventories (May)
Earnings – Metals & Mining
(NYSE) Alcoa – Materials / Aluminum 🇺🇸
(NYSE) POSCO Holdings – Materials / Steel (South Korea) 🇰🇷
(SET) Tata Steel Thailand – Materials / Steel 🇹🇭
(NYSE) Insteel Industries – Materials / Steel Wire (US) 🇺🇸
(Stockholm) Gränges – Materials / Aluminum Rolling 🇸🇪
Earnings – Energy
(Oslo) Okea – Energy / Oil & Gas (North Sea) 🇳🇴
(Oslo) Aker ASA – Industrials / Energy & Industrial Holding 🇳🇴
Earnings – Chemicals
(NYSE) Celanese – Materials / Acetyls & Specialty Chemicals 🇺🇸
(Oslo) Borregaard – Materials / Biorefinery & Wood-based Chemicals 🇳🇴
Earnings – Renewables
(NSE) Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy – Renewables / Solar EPC (India) 🇮🇳
(LSE) Gore Street Energy Storage Fund – Renewables / Battery Storage 🇬🇧
(Oslo) Hexagon Purus – Renewables / Hydrogen Systems 🇳🇴
(Stockholm) PowerCell Sweden – Renewables / Fuel Cells 🇸🇪
(Oslo) Magnora – Renewables / Developer 🇳🇴
Earnings – Materials & Equipment
B (Stockholm) Essity – Materials / Tissue & Hygiene (pulp) 🇸🇪
(NYSE) Cementos Pacasmayo – Materials / Cement (Peru) 🇵🇪
A (Stockholm) Atlas Copco – Industrials / Compressors & Mining Equipment 🇸🇪
Earnings – Major US / Global
(NYSE) Taiwan Semiconductor – Technology / Semiconductors 🇹🇼
(NYSE) UnitedHealth – Healthcare / Managed Care 🇺🇸
(NYSE) Abbott Laboratories – Healthcare / Diversified Health 🇺🇸
(NASDAQ) Intuitive Surgical – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇺🇸
(NYSE) GE Aerospace – Industrials / Aerospace 🇺🇸
(NASDAQ) Netflix – Communications / Streaming 🇺🇸
Friday, July 17
Economic Events
06:00 🇲🇾 Malaysia – CPI (YoY) & GDP (YoY) (Q2)
11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area – CPI & Core CPI (Jun, final)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – Housing Starts & Building Permits (Jun)
14:30 🇺🇸 US – Export & Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
14:30 🇨🇦 Canada – Foreign Securities Purchases (May)
15:15 🇺🇸 US – Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) (Jun)
16:00 🇺🇸 US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Jul)
19:00 🇺🇸 US – Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
21:30 🇺🇸 US – CFTC speculative net positions – Gold, Crude, S&P 500, Nasdaq, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, BRL
Earnings – Agriculture, Fertilizer & Food
(Oslo) Yara International – Agriculture / Nitrogen Fertilizer 🇳🇴
(Stockholm) AAK – Consumer Staples / Vegetable Oils & Specialty Fats 🇸🇪
(NSE) Globus Spirits – Consumer Staples / Grain Ethanol & Spirits (India) 🇮🇳
(NSE) United Spirits – Consumer Staples / Beverages (India) 🇮🇳
Earnings – Metals & Mining
(NSE) Hindustan Zinc – Materials / Zinc, Lead & Silver (India) 🇮🇳
(NSE) JSW Steel – Materials / Steel 🇮🇳
$003670 (KRX) POSCO Future M – Materials / Battery Cathode Materials 🇰🇷
$5423 (TSE) Tokyo Steel – Materials / Steel 🇯🇵
(Stockholm) Alleima – Materials / Specialty Stainless Steel 🇸🇪
(TSX-V) Critical Elements – Materials / Lithium Developer (Quebec) 🇨🇦
Earnings – Energy & Chemicals
(NSE) Reliance Industries – Energy / Oil-to-Chemicals & Retail (India) 🇮🇳
(Helsinki) Kemira – Materials / Pulp & Water Chemicals 🇫🇮
$007690 (KRX) Kukdo Chemical – Materials / Epoxy Resins 🇰🇷
(NSE) Fineotex Chemical – Materials / Specialty Chemicals 🇮🇳
Earnings – Forestry, Mining Equipment & Industrials
(Stockholm) BillerudKorsnäs – Materials / Paper & Packaging 🇸🇪
(Stockholm) Sandvik – Industrials / Mining & Rock Equipment 🇸🇪
A (Stockholm) Epiroc – Industrials / Mining & Infrastructure Equipment 🇸🇪
(Stockholm) Midsummer – Renewables / Thin-film Solar 🇸🇪
B (Stockholm) Volvo – Industrials / Trucks & Machinery 🇸🇪
Hi Piotr.
First time today I read your excellent analysis.
I read it with genuine interest and close attention. Several points stood out to me, both in your macro observations and in the way you connect them to your trading framework.
I paid particular attention to your comments on Treasuries, the structural pressures on yields, the situation in energy markets, and the broadening stabilization across industrial metals. I also found your remarks on FX and the dollar’s consolidation phase very insightful.
I learned a great deal from the way you laid out the reasoning behind each move and the factors you consider most important.
I fully agree with your swing‑trading approach, especially your discipline in waiting for clean breakouts to the upside before taking long positions.
The consistency of your method is evident throughout your analysis, and I appreciate how clearly you explain the logic behind it.
Thank you again for sharing your work. I truly value the clarity and depth of your perspective.
Best regards, Dzjen kuje !
Ioannis Lazaridis
Finland.
Thank you for the comprehensive market overview Kacper! Yea many assets aren't that cheap. Gold and corn sound interesting. Vol is cheap btw