Markets Update – January 5, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mind-set that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment. A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.”
Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude (2000)
Happy New Year! I wish you and your families love, good health, and prosperity!
And here we are, 2026 is barely underway, and the headlines are already intense. If there was any doubt that we live in uncertain times, I think this weekend made it crystal clear.
Uncertainty is something few of us are comfortable with. After all, from early childhood we are taught to seek the opposite: comfort, stability, and predictability, at least in our personal and when possible, in professional live. Unfortunately, it’s often the opposite that works in trading or investing. It takes some time to adapt to a mindset so different from the one we’ve used most of our lives, but it’s possible; it can be mastered with some time and commitment.
We should prepare for more in 2026, it may be packed with political and economic events. We can’t predict them exactly; anything can happen, after all. But we can assign probabilities and stay ready to react. We may expect certain paths, but we don’t need to know precisely where the market is headed. Often, the market tells us where it wants to go, we just need to listen and respond to make money, even if it contradicts what we thought would happen
So what is our edge? I think it’s one of the most important questions that needs to be answered before entering markets. It’s important because it essentially defines if you’re an investor or if you’re a trader. I may not like that distinction very much (my answer is always that I’m both). But since it’s so commonly used, let’s go with that. In fact, it is my belief that what separates the two terms (investor and trader) is but time. And what is time? It’s one of the most important edges out there.
Investors can wait, they simply don’t need immediate results or validation. That is a powerful position to be in. Combined with thorough research, this yields wonderful long-term results when the strategy matches the timeframe.
But is that not also what trading is? An investor may think that they are not making a trade, but when you really think about it, they absolutely are. We trade our money for the opportunity for capital appreciation, and as such we sacrifice and freeze our capital in expectation of a certain outcome, and pay what is called opportunity cost by not allocating our money elsewhere.
However, for a classically defined trader, the edge may be something else. When focused on catching a sudden move, time in the trade is even more consequential and may often not be on your side. But even here we have long-term swing traders, short-term swing traders, or day traders. And so, to find their edge, each uses their own system: chart patterns, volume reading, tracking options flow, or exploiting rigid market-shifting flows. The shorter the time, the more information may be needed. But fundamentally, it’s based on the same truth: reading the balance between supply and demand and assigning probabilities of who will prevail, either buyers or sellers.
Back to the present: traditional economic and credit cycles may be distorted and less clear than ever, but make no mistake, they’re still grinding relentlessly through the system. I believe we’re in the late stage of this one, where commodities, real economy assets, and related equities tend to do well.
Major economies are set to increase transfers to address inequality, while infrastructure and defense spending accelerates. Fiscal policy will shape what comes next, and it’s likely inflationary. That said, we must be careful, these outcomes are dictated by a few people who can change their minds or fail in execution. As long as oil and energy remain cheap, this game can continue. But if they rise, global long-term rates could surge further amid massive refinancing needs.
As a result, our responses must keep shifting, and they should. Adaptability will be essential, and volatility is unlikely to vanish in the coming years. History may rhyme, but it never repeats exactly, new facts force adjustment, and every moment in the market is unique.
As for the very short term, much will unfold in the coming weeks, especially into mid-January. After 2025 ended with thin holiday liquidity and sharp, exaggerated moves, we’ll now see serious allocation shifts. Observing the market’s signals is crucial. The tape will reveal plenty: confirming existing trends, ending some, and igniting others. My role remains to observe impartially, adapt my outlook, and act only when the message aligns clearly.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-eight, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• MSCI EM - EMERGING MARKETS: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• HSI HANG SENG - CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DAX - GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• JPY/USD - JAPANESE YEN: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUB/USD - RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NOK/USD - NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NZD/USD - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NZD/USD - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• STEEL HRC - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NICKEL - LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
• STEEL HRC - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COFFEE C - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Sunday, January 4
Holidays: 🇷🇺 Russia (New Year’s Day)
• 12:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
• 20:45 🇨🇳 Caixin Services PMI (Dec)
Monday, January 5
Holidays (early close): 🇸🇪 Sweden (Twelfth Night - Early close at 14:00)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish Unemployment Change (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 22:35 🇯🇵 10-Year JGB Auction
Tuesday, January 6
Holidays: 🇱🇧 Lebanon (Christmas), 🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina (Christmas), 🇲🇪 Montenegro (Christmas), 🇸🇪Sweden (Epiphany Day), 🇫🇮 Finland (Epiphany Day), 🇵🇱 Poland (Epiphany Day), 🇬🇷 Greece (Epiphany Day), 🇭🇷 Croatia (Epiphany Day), 🇨🇾 Cyprus (Epiphany Day), 🇸🇰 Slovakia (Epiphany Day), 🇸🇪 Sweden (Twelfth Night)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 French CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 French HICP (MoM) (Dec)
• 03:00 🇧🇷 IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (MoM) (Dec)
• 03:15 🇪🇸 HCOB Spain Services PMI (Dec)
• 03:45 🇮🇹 HCOB Italy Services PMI (Dec)
• 03:50 🇫🇷 HCOB France Services PMI (Dec)
• 03:55 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Nov)
• 19:30 🇯🇵 au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Wednesday, January 7
Holidays: 🇪🇬 Egypt (Christmas), 🇷🇺 Russia (Christmas), 🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina (Christmas), 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan (Christmas), 🇲🇪 Montenegro (Christmas)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 03:55 🇩🇪 German Unemployment Change (Dec)
• 03:55 🇩🇪 German Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Construction PMI (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 05:30 🇩🇪 German 10-Year Bund Auction
• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)
• 10:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI (Dec)
• 15:30 🇬🇧 CFTC GBP speculative net positions
• 15:30 🇺🇸 CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions
• 15:30 🇺🇸 CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
• 15:30 🇦🇺 CFTC AUD speculative net positions
• 15:30 🇧🇷 CFTC BRL speculative net positions
• 15:30 🇯🇵 CFTC JPY speculative net positions
• 16:10 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Trade Balance (Nov)
Thursday, January 8
Holidays: 🇲🇪 Montenegro (Christmas Day)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:30 🇨🇭 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 03:30 🇨🇭 SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 05:00 🇬🇧 Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 07:00 🇲🇽 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 07:00 🇲🇽 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Exports (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Imports (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance (Oct)
• 10:00 🇲🇽 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 11:00 🇺🇸 NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 15:00 🇺🇸 Consumer Credit (Nov)
• 18:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending (YoY) (Nov)
• 18:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending (MoM) (Nov)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 PPI (YoY) (Dec)
Friday, January 9
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German Trade Balance (Nov)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇨🇭 SECO Consumer Climate (Dec)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Participation Rate (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 U6 Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Employment Change (Dec)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Earnings this week:
Tuesday, January 6
• AAR Corp $AIR (NYSE) – Aerospace & Defense 🇺🇸
• MSC Industrial Direct $MSM (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Cal-Maine Foods $CALM (NASDAQ) – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸
• PriceSmart $PSMT (NASDAQ) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• UniFirst $UNF (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• RPM International $RPM (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• TD SYNNEX $SNX (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Acuity Brands $AYI (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Commercial Metals $CMC (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• WD-40 $WDFC (NASDAQ) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Greenbrier Companies $GBX (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Lindsay $LNN (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Neogen $NEOG (NASDAQ) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
Wednesday, January 7
• Constellation Brands $STZ (NYSE) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
Thursday, January 8
• Helen of Troy $HELE (NASDAQ) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
