Markets Update – January 26, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Working to anticipate the future can be a distraction from the important task of dealing with the present.”
Ed Seykota, interviewed in the first book of the Market Wizards series (Jack D. Schwager, 1989)
We can see it almost everywhere right now: on TV, on social media, in analyst calls. Predicting the future seems to be the name of the game. Some are quite ambitious and go straight for a grand, multi-year scale. Others are more realistic and are just trying to nail the next leg up or down.
After all, we’re told that’s what great market performance is all about. Nail the next big shift and profit big, they say. But is it really? A core outlook has its place, yet it rarely helps much when dealing with the present. Right now, in this environment, we have slim odds of calling next month accurately, let alone a few years ahead.
In markets, sometimes it plays out exactly like we wanted, and we rip the benefits. Sometimes it plays out completely differently, and we still win somehow. And sometimes we nail the prediction perfectly, but our strategy was garbage or execution even worse, so we end up flat, or worse, bleeding.
So, what are we to do? Thankfully, there is an alternative. Ed Seykota kept hammering: “I don’t predict a nonexisting future.” It’s especially destructive when that effort distracts you from the only thing that exists right now.
We don’t have to predict very much at all. We’ll almost certainly never know exactly where markets are headed, and here’s the really liberating bit: we don’t have to predict or even be right to make money.
I’ve personally found it extremely helpful to shift focus toward the present: actually listening to what the market is telling me through price action, rather than forcing my own narrative onto it. In essence, Seykota’s warning is against prediction addiction.
People tend to burn huge amounts of mental energy forecasting tops and bottoms, double tops, double bottoms, calling reversals, and building elaborate “this is how it should unfold” scenarios. That game leads straight into a mental trap: overthinking, hesitation, emotional attachment to opinions, and second-guessing signals.
Instead, the real work is dealing with price action, trends, your system’s signals, managing risk based on current conditions, and responding without injecting personal forecasts or ego.
The future-oriented guessing game is seductive, but it’s usually a distraction. The market doesn’t owe us our anticipated narrative. Better to stay present, trade what is, cut the ego, and let the trends do the talking.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy one, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANK: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANK: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANK: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogicresearch.substack.com
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, January 26
Holidays:
• 🇦🇺 Australia (Australia Day)
• 🇮🇳 India (Republic Day)
• 🇴🇲 Oman (Al Isra’ wal-Mi‘raj)
• 04:00 🇩🇪 German Buba Balz Speaks
• 10:00 🇩🇪 German Business Expectations (Jan)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 German Current Assessment (Jan)
• 12:00 🇩🇪 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 2-Year Note Auction
Tuesday, January 27
• 01:30 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Dec)
• 06:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
• 14:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 15:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 (YoY) (Nov)
• 15:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 (MoM) (Nov)
• 15:45 🇨🇦 BoC Rate Statement
• 16:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)
• 18:00 🇩🇪 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 19:00 🇺🇸 5-Year Note Auction
• 22:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Wednesday, January 28
Holidays:
• 🇲🇾 Malaysia (Chinese New Year – early close 12:30)
• 00:50 🇯🇵 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 01:30 🇦🇺 CPI (YoY) (Q4)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 GfK German Consumer Climate (Feb)
• 11:30 🇩🇪 German 10-Year Bund Auction
• 14:30 🇺🇸 U.S. President Trump Speaks
• 15:45 🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 15:45 🇨🇦 BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 16:30 🇨🇦 BoC Press Conference
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 20:00 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 20:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Statement
• 20:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference
• 22:30 🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, January 29
Holidays:
• 🇲🇾 Malaysia (Chinese New Year)
• 07:00 🇸🇪 GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 07:00 🇸🇪 GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 09:30 🇸🇪 Interest Rate Decision
• 12:00 🇫🇷 France Jobseekers Total (Dec)
• 14:00 🇿🇦 Interest Rate Decision
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance (Nov)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Nov)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Exports (Nov)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Imports (Nov)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 18:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 7-Year Note Auction
• 22:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
Friday, January 30
• 00:30 🇯🇵 Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 00:50 🇯🇵 Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 PPI (YoY) (Q4)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 PPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 07:30 🇫🇷 French GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 07:30 🇫🇷 French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 07:30 🇫🇷 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:30 🇭🇺 GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 KOF Leading Indicators (Jan)
• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan)
• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 09:55 🇩🇪 German Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 09:55 🇩🇪 German Unemployment Change (Jan)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 German GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 11:00 🇵🇱 GDP (YoY)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 12:30 🇧🇷 Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratio (Dec)
• 12:30 🇧🇷 Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 13:00 🇲🇽 GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 13:00 🇲🇽 GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 14:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 14:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 Core PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Jan)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 19:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Saturday, January 31
• 02:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 02:30 🇨🇳 Composite PMI (Jan)
• 02:30 🇨🇳 Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Sunday, February 1
• 11:00 🇺🇸 OPEC Meeting
Earnings this week I may look at:
Monday, January 26
• Nucor $NUE (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Steel Dynamics $STLD (NASDAQ) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
Tuesday, January 27
• Boeing $BA (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• American Airlines $AAL (NASDAQ) – Industrials 🇺🇸
Wednesday, January 28
• Microsoft $MSFT (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Meta $FB (NASDAQ) – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• Tesla $TSLA (NASDAQ) – Consumer Cyclical 🇺🇸
• IBM $IBM (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
Thursday, January 29
• Apple $AAPL (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Visa $V (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Mastercard $MA (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Samsung Electronics $SMSN (LSE) – Technology 🇰🇷
• SAP $SAP (XETRA) – Technology 🇩🇪
• Caterpillar $CAT (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Blackstone $BX (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Southern Copper $SCCO (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Lockheed Martin $LMT (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Valero Energy $VLO (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
Friday, January 30
• Exxon Mobil $XOM (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Chevron $CVX (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• American Express $AXP (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Imperial Oil $IMO (TSX) – Energy 🇨🇦