Markets Update – January 19, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“If it causes you to have sleepless nights, or if you can’t take your eyes off the screen, then it’s probably too intense for you. Find a strategy that lets you be comfortable when you trade.”
Lawrence G. McMillan, Options As a Strategic Investment
I am a risk taker. This is what it takes to be an investor, and it is definitely what it takes that to be a trader. There is no absolutely safe bet in this business. I know it’s a truism, but truisms are sometimes useful because they are, well, true.
Knowing what they mean is one thing. Accepting them in your mind is entirely different. Unfortunately, this is why we so often have to live through various situations ourselves to really understand what type of investor or trader we truly are, what we’re comfortable with. It really comes down to risk at the very end.
Another truism here: it’s all about risk management. One can glance over it, saying “yes, sure, I certainly know that”, and then make decisions completely absent of that principle. I’ve done it, and I’ve seen it so many times I can’t count.
I am a risk taker, but I size my positions.
I never risk more than 2% of my account on any single investment or trade. This is what I found I can live with, and I discovered it through a hard path, which means through losses.
Saying 2% doesn’t mean I will only put that amount into a single stock, ETF, or commodity. It could mean putting 10% into gold or a sector ETF like tech or energy, with a well-defined cut 20% below my entry. Entry, of course, is not random but determined by an established system.
For some that risk level is 1%, for some it’s 10% or even 20%. There is really no one answer that fits all; we all have different individual circumstances and psychological frameworks. The point is to find your own.
Suppressing how you feel will typically lead to very bad results. It does get easier to size with time, and by time, I mean experience.
I am a risk taker, but I buy in tranches and trim my wins.
I’ve certainly never bought a bottom, perhaps with a small portion when I was averaging into a position with long-term hold intention. Now I don’t even want to buy the bottom, and it’s not because I don’t want to make big money.
Sure, it looks great in hindsight, but it’s almost always the wrong decision at the time, especially in trading. We can’t know when the trend will change, and as such we’re playing a guessing game, unless we’ve really researched the fundamentals and focus on investing.
It’s much easier with selling. As the price goes up, I will start to sell. I’ve certainly done it too early many times; it’s also what I had to learn with experience.
The larger the position gets in your account, the larger its impact on your psychology. The larger the position gets, the more volatility it introduces. I found that taking some risk off the table equips me psychologically to stay with the rest of the position. Otherwise, I’d almost certainly sell too early.
Again, there is no right answer that will apply to all of you. Some are comfortable with a lot of volatility; some are more risk averse; the key is to find that middle golden point that will both fit your psychology and your goals in investing or trading.
Don’t look at others’ performance; this is a road to frustration and very bad mistakes. You don’t know if their account is all they have or just a small portion they play with. You don’t know their psychology or risk tolerance, and finally you don’t know if it was a lucky strike or something more fundamental.
There is only one benchmark that you should care about, and that’s your own. And here I end the update with another truism…
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX - UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY - US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• EUR/USD - EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CHF/USD - SWISS FRANK: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CAD/USD - CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• BTC/USD - BITCOIN: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• ETH/USD - ETHEREUM: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• PLN/USD - POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NOK/USD - NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SEK/USD - SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ uptrend (no change)
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• EUR/USD - EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% - CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• COCOA - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ downtrend (no change)
• LUMBER - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• ROUGH RICE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CANOLA - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, January 19
Holidays: 🇺🇸 United States (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day)
• 03:00 🇨🇳 GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 03:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
• 11:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 16:30 🇨🇦 BoC Business Outlook Survey
Tuesday, January 20
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇭 PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
• 11:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
• 11:00 🇩🇪 German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan)
• 11:00 🇩🇪 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
• 22:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Wednesday, January 21
• 08:00 🇬🇧 CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 PPI Input (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
• 10:00 🇺🇸 IEA Monthly Report
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct)
• 18:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
Thursday, January 22
• 00:50 🇯🇵 Trade Balance (Dec)
• 00:50 🇯🇵 Exports (YoY) (Dec)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 Full Employment Change (Dec)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
• 10:00 🇳🇴 Interest Rate Decision
• 13:30 🇪🇺 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
• 14:30 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 14:30 🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices (Q3)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 PCE price index (MoM) (Nov)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 PCE Price index (YoY) (Nov)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 10-Year TIPS Auction
• 22:45 🇳🇿 CPI (YoY) (Q4)
• 22:45 🇳🇿 CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
Friday, January 23
• 00:30 🇯🇵 National Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 00:30 🇯🇵 National CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 04:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 04:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 07:30 🇯🇵 BoJ Press Conference
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 09:00 🇨🇭 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
• 09:15 🇪🇺 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 09:15 🇪🇺 HCOB France Services PMI (Jan)
• 09:30 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 09:30 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jan)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jan)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jan)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 14:31 🇨🇦 Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 19:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Earnings this week:
Tuesday, January 20
• Netflix NFLX:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• 3M MMM:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• US Bancorp USB:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• DR Horton DHI:US (BMO) – Consumer Cyclical 🇺🇸
• Fastenal FAST:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• United Airlines Holdings UAL:US (AMC) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Fifth Third Bancorp FITB:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Interactive Brokers IBKR:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• KeyCorp KEY:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Wintrust Financial WTFC:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Zions Bancorporation ZION:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Bank Ozk OZK:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• ServisFirst Bancshares SFBS:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Simmons First National SFNC:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Progress Software PRGS:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Forestar FOR:US (AMC) – Real Estate 🇺🇸
Wednesday, January 21
• J&J JNJ:US (BMO) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Charles Schwab SCHW:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• ProLogis PLD:US (BMO) – Real Estate 🇺🇸
• TE Connectivity TEL:US (BMO) – Technology 🇨🇭
• Kinder Morgan KMI:US (AMC) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Travelers Companies TRV:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Truist Financial TFC:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Halliburton HAL:US (BMO) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Citizens Financial CFG:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Guotai Junan Securities 601211:CH (AMC) – Financials 🇨🇳
• Ally Financial ALLY:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Dr.Reddys Laboratories DRRD:IN (AMC) – Healthcare 🇮🇳
• Caci International CACI:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Knight Transportation KNX:US (AMC) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Pinnacle Financial Partners PNFP:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Old National Bancorp ONB:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• RLI RLI:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Fulton Financial FULT:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• BankUnited BKU:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• FB Financial FBK:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Banner BANR:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
Thursday, January 22
• Visa V:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• P&G PG:US (BMO) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• LVMH MC:FP (AMC) – Consumer Cyclical 🇫🇷
• General Electric Aerospace GE:US (AMC) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Abbott ABT:US (BMO) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• KLA-Tencor KLAC:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Intuitive Surgical ISRG:US (AMC) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Intel INTC:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Capital One Financial COF:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• CSX CSX:US (AMC) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Xcel Energy XEL:US (AMC) – Utilities 🇺🇸
• Western Digital WDC:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Rockwell Automation ROK:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Fair Isaac FICO:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Northern NTRS:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Huntington Bancshares HBAN:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Southwest Airlines LUV:US (AMC) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Nidec 6594:JP (AMC) – Industrials 🇯🇵
• McCormick MKC:US (AMC) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• Shriram Finance SHFL:IN (AMC) – Financials 🇮🇳
• East West Bancorp EWBC:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Bankinter BKT:SM (AMC) – Financials 🇪🇸
• Old Republic International ORI:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Alcoa AA:US (AMC) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• American Airlines AAL:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• TAL International TAL:US (AMC) – Consumer Defensive 🇨🇳
• Eagle Materials EXP:US (BMO) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Eastman Chemical EMN:US (AMC) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Cadence Bank BXS:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Alaska Air ALK:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• GATX GATX:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Columbia Banking System COLB:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Glacier Bancorp GBCI:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• United Bankshares UBSI:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• First Financial Bankshares FFIN:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Associated Banc ASB:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Osi Systems OSIS:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Texas Capital Bancshares TCBI:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Bancorp TBBK:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Cathay General Bancorp CATY:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Kimberly-Clark de México KIMBERA:MM (AMC) – Consumer Defensive 🇲🇽
• Townebank TOWN:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Atlantic Union Bankshares Coorporation UBSH:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Hilltop HTH:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Netscout Systems NTCT:US (AMC) – Technology 🇺🇸
• OFG Bancorp OFG:US (BMO) – Financials 🇵🇷
• Pathward Financial CASH:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• JetBlue Airways JBLU:US (AMC) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• S&T Bancorp STBA:US (AMC) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Matsui Securities 8628:JP (AMC) – Financials 🇯🇵
Friday, January 23
• NextEra Energy NEE:US (BMO) – Utilities 🇺🇸
• Schlumberger SLB:US (BMO) – Energy 🇺🇸
• JSW Steel JSTL:IN (AMC) – Basic Materials 🇮🇳
• First Citizens Bancshares FCNCA:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Vedanta VEDL:IN (AMC) – Basic Materials 🇮🇳
• Cipla CIPLA:IN (AMC) – Healthcare 🇮🇳
• Booz Allen Hamilton BAH:US (BMO) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Comerica CMA:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Webster Financial WBS:US (BMO) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Indusind Bank IIB:IN (AMC) – Financials 🇮🇳
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
