Markets Update – January 12, 2026

Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture

“Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.”

Ed Seykota, featured in the very first Market Wizards book, was an early pioneer in computerized trading and trend-following.

Uncertainty is something few of us are comfortable with. Yet it must be embraced in investing and trading. The only way to approach it is to start with the risk and weigh it against the reward. That’s the reality we often face in markets; the key is not avoiding rejection (or loss) but managing it so the math works in our favor over the long run.

It’s already been wild, yet we should prepare for 2026 to be packed with much more political and economic events. We can’t predict them exactly, but we can assign probabilities and stay ready to react. We may suspect certain paths, but we don’t need to know precisely where the market is headed. Often, the market tells us where it wants to go; we just need to listen and respond to make money, even if it contradicts what we thought would happen.

Traditional economic and credit cycles may be distorted and less clear than ever, but make no mistake, they’re still grinding relentlessly through the system. I believe we’re in the late stage of this one, where commodities, real economy assets, and related equities tend to do well. Major economies and their politicians are set to increase transfers to bandage growing inequality; pushes for better infrastructure and defense are also well underway, and it is fiscal policy that will shape what comes next.

That said, it’s for the very same reason that we must be careful: these outcomes are politically dictated, and politicians can change their mind or simply fail in their attempts. What is probable is that those policies are inflationary. As long as oil and energy as a whole stay cheap, this game can be played, but once it gives way, I’d expect global long-term rates to rise even more than they have, right into the ongoing massive refinancing cycle. As a result, our responses to it keep shifting, and they should. Adaptability will be essential; I don’t think we’ll escape volatility in the coming years.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-nine, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• RUSSELL 2000 - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• NIKKEI YEN - JAPAN: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY - US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• EUR/USD - EURO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CHF/USD - SWISS FRANK: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• JPY/USD - JAPANESE YEN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• BRL/USD - BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• RUB/USD - RUSSIAN RUBLE: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY - US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• CAD/USD - CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• BRL/USD - BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• RUB/USD - RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• PLN/USD - POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• EUR/USD - EURO: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• IRON ORE, 62% - CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• LEAD - LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PALLADIUM - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

• ALUMINUM - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NATURAL GAS - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 30-YEAR T-BOND - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• COCOA - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ROUGH RICE - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CANOLA - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SOYBEANS - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨

• SOYBEAN MEAL - UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

Key Economic Events This Week

Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:

Sunday, January 11

Holidays: 🇲🇦 Morocco (Independence Day)

Monday, January 12

Holidays: 🇯🇵 Japan (Coming of Age Day), 🇨🇴 Colombia (Epiphany Day), 🇹🇿 Tanzania (Zanzibar Revolution Day)

• 03:00 🇨🇭 SECO Consumer Climate

• 05:30 🇮🇳 CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 11:00 🇩🇪 German Buba Balz Speaks

• 13:00 🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction

• 13:00 🇺🇸 3-Year Note Auction

• 16:00 🇳🇿 NZIER Business Confidence (Q4)

• 18:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks

• 18:50 🇯🇵 Adjusted Current Account (Nov)

• 18:50 🇯🇵 Current Account n.s.a. (Nov)

• 19:01 🇬🇧 BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Dec)

Tuesday, January 13

• 02:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

• 02:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change Weekly

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 08:30 🇨🇦 Building Permits (MoM) (Nov)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Oct)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

• 13:00 🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction

• 14:00 🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance (Dec)

• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

• 19:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov)

• 22:00 🇨🇳 Exports (YoY) (Dec)

• 22:00 🇨🇳 Imports (YoY) (Dec)

• 22:00 🇨🇳 Trade Balance (USD) (Dec)

Wednesday, January 14

Holidays: 🇲🇦 Morocco (Bank Holiday), 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka (Tamil Thai Pongal Day), 🇲🇦 Morocco (Amazigh New Year)

• 01:30 🇮🇳 WPI Inflation (YoY) (Dec)

• 05:00 🇨🇳 New Loans (Dec)

• 08:00 🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PPI (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Current Account (Q3)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 PPI (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Control (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Business Inventories (MoM) (Oct)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Dec)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct)

• 10:30 🇬🇧 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks

• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)

• 12:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

• 14:00 🇺🇸 Beige Book

• 14:10 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Thursday, January 15

• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (MoM) (Nov)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Nov)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Trade Balance (Nov)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov)

• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 02:45 🇫🇷 French CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 02:45 🇫🇷 French HICP (MoM) (Dec)

• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec)

• 04:00 🇪🇺 ECB Economic Bulletin

• 04:30 🇬🇧 BOE Credit Conditions Survey

• 05:00 🇪🇺 Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

• 05:00 🇪🇺 Trade Balance (Nov)

• 07:00 🇬🇧 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Dec)

• 07:00 🇧🇷 Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

• 07:00 🇧🇷 Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

• 07:30 🇪🇺 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

• 08:00 🇺🇸 Export Price Index (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:00 🇺🇸 Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims

• 08:30 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Employment (Jan)

• 08:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov)

• 08:35 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

• 08:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov)

• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet

• 16:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (Dec)

• 23:00 🇲🇾 GDP (YoY) (Q4)

Friday, January 16

Holidays: 🇰🇼 Kuwait (Al Isra’ wal-Mi’raj), 🇵🇸 Palestinian Territory (Al Isra’ wal-Mi’raj), 🇮🇩 Indonesia (ISRA MI’RAJ)

• 02:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 02:00 🇩🇪 German CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 08:15 🇨🇦 Housing Starts (Dec)

• 08:30 🇨🇦 Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov)

• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)

• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)

• 11:00 🇷🇺 CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 11:00 🇷🇺 CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

Earnings this week:

Monday, January 12

• Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) – Technology 🇮🇳

• HCL Technologies (HCLTECH.NS) – Technology 🇮🇳

Tuesday, January 13

• JPMorgan Chase $JPM (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Bank of New York Mellon $BK (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Delta Air Lines $DAL (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸

Wednesday, January 14

• Bank of America $BAC (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Citigroup $C (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Wells Fargo $WFC (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Infosys $INFY (NYSE) – Technology 🇮🇳

• United Community Banks $UCB (NASDAQ) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Cogeco Communications $CCA.TO (TSX) – Communication Services 🇨🇦

Thursday, January 15

• Morgan Stanley $MS (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Goldman Sachs $GS (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• BlackRock $BLK (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• J.B. Hunt $JBHT (NASDAQ) – Industrials 🇺🇸

• First Horizon $FHN (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Richelieu Hardware $RCH.TO (TSX) – Industrials 🇨🇦

• Westamerica Bancorporation $WABC (NASDAQ) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Commerce Bancshares $CBSH (NASDAQ) – Financials 🇺🇸

Friday, January 16

• PNC Financial $PNC (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• State Street $STT (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• M&T Bank $MTB (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Regions Financial $RF (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸

• Tech Mahindra $TECHM.NS – Technology 🇮🇳

• SBI Life Insurance $SBILIFE.NS – Financials 🇮🇳

• Wipro $WIT (NYSE) – Technology 🇮🇳

• BOK Financial $BOKF (NASDAQ) – Financials 🇺🇸

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com