Markets Update – February 9, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”
Bernard Mannes Baruch (1957). Baruch: My own story
Sounds quite simple, wouldn’t you agree? It’s something we would think is obvious, but in my view it’s still wildly misunderstood.
While most of us investors and traders alike know it’s impossible to buy the exact bottom or sell the exact top, unless by pure chance, it’s not the operative word in the great advice given by Bernard Baruch. The key word here is try.
Once you think about it, it’s the trying to fight the waves that leads to most frustration and financial loss on both sides of each market we want to participate in.
Buying too soon, catching falling knives, we know it’s not a good idea, yet many still do it. Why? Because it works from time to time, and many just can’t stomach the idea of missing that perfect bottom.
Selling too soon, not staying with the trend can be equally frustrating. There is a constant battle in our mind: profits are substantial, but what if it goes back down, what if I give it all back? We tend to sell and then watch it go way higher.
Luckily, we can all adapt systems to manage these emotions. And I say systems for a reason, because there is no one perfect that will apply everywhere.
Buying when trend is established, using breakouts, channels, moving averages for both entry and exits, using trailing stops. These all can work well provided they are adjusted for volatility and timeframe.
I personally will never buy the downtrend or sell the uptrend, I just won’t do it anymore, regardless the fundamental case. Past painful experiences are fresh in my mind. While I can trim winning trades it’s usually when my target was reached and rewards are beyond substantial, like in parabolic late-stage movements.
But at the end, really, it’s just about not fighting the market’s actual direction.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-three, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• AU/USD – GOLD: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogicresearch.substack.com
