Markets Update – February 23, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Longevity is the key to success.”
Ed Seykota
Just a few thoughts this week about investing and professional trading.
If you’ve been observing the markets long enough, you’ve probably noticed that most people who enter this game don’t leave on their own terms. Some blow up fast and loud. Others fade out slowly, bleeding a little at a time until there’s nothing left. A very few get lucky. And fewer still actually last.
The ones still here after twenty, thirty years? They’re a different breed entirely. Usually they’re not smarter or more talented. Just ruthlessly unwilling to quit.
They didn’t find a special secret. They managed risk like it was the only thing that mattered, because eventually it is.
What separates those still standing is discipline that borders on compulsive, no joke, they follow risk rules even when they feel like cowardice for some. They stick to the system, and they let the math do the work.
Those people are often not exciting. They won’t brag about their best trade or shine on podcasts pushing the newest theories. But they’ll still be here decades from now, and most of the exciting people won’t.
That’s who I watch. That’s who I trust. Not the ones who got lucky and “know” exactly why, but the ones who built something durable out of nothing but patience, research, and an almost pathological refusal to blow up.
Longevity isn’t the consolation prize for people who couldn’t hit it big.
It is, in fact, hitting it big. Just slower than most people are willing to wait.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-five, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research -
