Markets Update – February 2, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.”
Ed Seykota, interviewed in the first book of the Market Wizards series (Jack D. Schwager, 1989).
I think we need to talk about the precious metals this week. This Friday, but really the last year will go down in the history books. The steepest and fastest increase in decades, followed by increased volatility and equally sharp corrections.
I’d suspect we’ve just entered a much-needed consolidation phase, where most speculative flows will now leave the market. The fundamental reasons for owning precious metals haven’t changed, if anything, they keep getting reinforced every month. That said, we’ll follow the trends as always aim to optimize our market performance.
On a more general note, we can channel more quotes to guide us through this phase, and I tried to time them well, so we’d be ready for whatever the markets throw at us. But really, in precious metals or any other asset, there is no good playbook when volatility picks up. Unfortunately, I’ve found that we each must live through it to really understand what it entails.
There are many ways to say basically the same thing. I know you’ve heard this, and probably got bored of hearing it, I certainly did, but fundamentally it all comes down to risk management in the very end.
Sizing, risk to reward assessment, disciplined selling, hedging your bets, these are the things I personally introduced into my investing and trading only after I really understood what risk management is, and I really understood what it is after I lived through a volatile phase that made me give up some, and sometimes most of the money and some on top.
It’s no secret that experience is one of the most important things in any profession. Investing and trading are no different. What creates the illusion that it may be easier is that rewards often land at random for many participants, no matter if they did the work or did no work at all.
Those first wins frequently arrive with almost no effort. That breeds the dangerous misperception that it’s somehow easier than it really is. Give it enough time, though, and it all balances out. The market has a way of collecting its dues.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-two, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogicresearch.substack.com
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, February 2
Holidays: 🇲🇾 Malaysia (Federal Territory Day), 🇲🇽 Mexico (Constitution Day)
• 02:45 🇨🇳 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 09:15 🇪🇸 HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 09:30 🇨🇭 procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 09:45 🇮🇹 HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 09:50 🇫🇷 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 09:55 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 OPEC Meeting
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)
• 17:30 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow
• 18:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Tuesday, February 3
• 01:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals (MoM) (Dec)
• 04:30 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 04:35 🇯🇵 10-Year JGB Auction
• 05:30 🇦🇺 RBA Rate Statement
• 05:30 🇦🇺 RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 08:00 🇹🇷 CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇹🇷 CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 08:45 🇫🇷 French CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:45 🇫🇷 French HICP (MoM) (Jan)
• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spanish Unemployment Change (Jan)
• 10:00 🇧🇷 IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (MoM) (Jan)
• 13:00 🇧🇷 Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 15:40 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 15:50 🇩🇪 German Buba Balz Speaks
• 16:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)
• 22:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Wednesday, February 4
Holidays: 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka (Independence Day)
• 01:30 🇯🇵 au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jan)
• 02:45 🇨🇳 Caixin Services PMI (Jan)
• 07:00 🇷🇺 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 09:15 🇪🇸 HCOB Spain Services PMI (Jan)
• 09:45 🇮🇹 HCOB Italy Services PMI (Jan)
• 09:50 🇫🇷 HCOB France Services PMI (Jan)
• 09:55 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jan)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jan)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jan)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 11:00 🇪🇺 CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 14:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan)
• 16:27 🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, February 5
Holidays: 🇵🇰 Pakistan (Kashmir Day)
• 01:30 🇦🇺 Trade Balance (Dec)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)
• 10:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan)
• 13:00 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 13:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC vote cut (Feb)
• 13:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC vote unchanged (Feb)
• 13:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC vote hike (Feb)
• 13:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 13:30 🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 14:15 🇪🇺 Deposit Facility Rate (Feb)
• 14:15 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 14:15 🇪🇺 ECB Marginal Lending Facility
• 14:15 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 14:45 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference
• 16:15 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 16:50 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 18:25 🇨🇦 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
• 20:00 🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 22:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
Friday, February 6
Holidays: 🇳🇿 New Zealand (National Day)
• 00:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending (YoY) (Dec)
• 00:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending (MoM) (Dec)
• 05:30 🇮🇳 Interest Rate Decision
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German Trade Balance (Dec)
• 08:00 🇩🇪 German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇸🇪 CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇸🇪 CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 11:00 🇬🇧 Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Jan)
• 13:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 14:30 🇨🇦 Employment Change (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 U6 Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Participation Rate (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan)
• 14:30 🇺🇸 Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a.
• 16:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI (Jan)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb)
• 16:27 🇷🇺 GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q4)
• 17:00 🇷🇺 GDP Monthly (YoY) (Dec)
• 17:00 🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (Dec)
• 17:00 🇷🇺 Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
• 19:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 19:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
• 21:00 🇺🇸 Consumer Credit (Dec)
Saturday, February 7
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jan)
• 08:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
Sunday, February 8
• 07:40 🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Earnings this week (February 2 - February 8, 2026)
Monday, February 2
• Palantir Technologies $PLTR (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Walt Disney $DIS (NYSE) – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• Tyson Foods $TSN (NYSE) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• Woodward $WWD (NASDAQ) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Alliance Resource Partners $ARLP (NASDAQ) – Energy 🇺🇸
Tuesday, February 3
• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Merck $MRK (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• PepsiCo $PEP (NASDAQ) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• Amgen $AMGN (NASDAQ) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Pfizer $PFE (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Mitsui $8031:JP (Tokyo) – Industrials 🇯🇵
• Mondelez International $MDLZ (NASDAQ) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• PayPal $PYPL (NASDAQ) – Financial Services 🇺🇸
• Marathon Petroleum $MPC (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Enterprise Products Partners $EPD (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Mitsubishi Electric $6503:JP (Tokyo) – Industrials 🇯🇵
• Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG (NYSE) – Consumer Cyclical 🇺🇸
• Electronic Arts $EA (NASDAQ) – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• MPLX $MPLX (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Corteva $CTVA (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Archer-Daniels Midland $ADM (NYSE) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• Ingredion $INGR (NYSE) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• Weatherford International $WFT (NASDAQ) – Energy 🇺🇸
Wednesday, February 4
• Alphabet $GOOG (NASDAQ) – Communication Services 🇺🇸
• Eli Lilly $LLY (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• AbbVie $ABBV (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial $8306:JP (Tokyo) – Financials 🇯🇵
• Banco Santander $SAN:SM (Madrid) – Financials 🇪🇸
• Qualcomm $QCOM (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Uber $UBER (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Suncor Energy $SU:CN (Toronto) – Energy 🇨🇦
• Phillips 66 $PSX (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Sumitomo $8053:JP (Tokyo) – Industrials 🇯🇵
• FMC $FMC (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
Thursday, February 5
• Amazon $AMZN (NASDAQ) – Consumer Cyclical 🇺🇸
• Shell $RDSA:NA (Amsterdam) – Energy 🇳🇱
• Linde $LIN (NYSE) – Basic Materials 🇺🇸
• Unilever $ULVR:LN (London) – Consumer Defensive 🇬🇧
• UniCredit $UCG:IM (Milan) – Financials 🇮🇹
• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria $BBVA:SM (Madrid) – Financials 🇪🇸
• BNP Paribas $BNP:FP (Paris) – Financials 🇫🇷
• Bharti Airtel $BHARTI:IN (India) – Communication Services 🇮🇳
• ConocoPhillips $COP (NYSE) – Energy 🇺🇸
• Mitsubishi $8058:JP (Tokyo) – Industrials 🇯🇵
• KKR $KKR (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Bristol-Myers Squibb $BMY (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Intercontinental Exchange $ICE (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
Friday, February 6
• Philip Morris International $PM (NYSE) – Consumer Defensive 🇺🇸
• Societe Generale $GLE:FP (Paris) – Financials 🇫🇷