Markets Update – February 16, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome. When you’re at peace with any outcome, you will experience a carefree, objective state of mind, where you make yourself available to perceive and act upon whatever the market is offering you.”
Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude
It took me years, and more than a few brutal losses, to truly understand risk.
When I first encountered Mark Douglas’s idea of being “at peace with any outcome,” it felt almost spiritual, like something reserved for some few enlightened people. Only later did I realize it’s quite entirely mechanical.
That peace for me never came from confidence, intuition, or some magical feel for the market. It came from doing the math. I sleep soundly and leave for weekends without obsessing over charts because every position has a predefined maximum loss, and I size my trades so that even the worst case leaves me largely intact and ready for the next opportunity. True calm for me isn’t about knowing where price will go. No one can truly know this. It’s about knowing exactly what happens no matter where it goes.
Over time, my relationship with volatility flipped entirely. I stopped merely tolerating it and started welcoming it, even looking for it. Not out of recklessness, but because volatility is often the reason big opportunities exist. For years I missed them, obsessed with being right instead of executing a sound process.
What changed wasn’t my analysis, it proved correct again and again, but in the long term. In the short term however, I accepted that the market doesn’t care about my hopes, needs, or ego. And so, my job isn’t to control the outcome. My job is to respond, size correctly, define exits clearly, and let probability work over hundreds of trades.
Once I internalized this, trading became almost boring. And that, paradoxically, is when it became profitable.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-four, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DAX – GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨
• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research -
