Markets Update – December 8, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“Even a relatively mild inflation distorts the structure of production. It leads to the overexpansion of some industries at the expense of others. This involves a misapplication and waste of capital.
When the inflation collapses, or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital investment - whether in the form of machines, factories, or office buildings - cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.”
Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson, 1946.
It sounds familiar, doesn’t it? We see it most visibly now in AI and data centers, and soon perhaps also in robotics, drones, and space exploration. One can argue that capital is chasing transformational technologies, and that is certainly true, but it’s also true that this pattern has repeated throughout history, it’s nothing new.
Railroads, telegraph, radio, automobiles, aviation, television, the internet, almost every transformative technology arrived with a speculative bubble fueled by expanding credit. The innovations are real, life-changing even, but the valuations not always so. These new sectors almost always tend to absorb a disproportionate amount of capital.
So when does it stop? Under the gold standard the mechanics were more obvious. Banks extended more credit relative to the gold in the system, even under fractional reserve rules. When people began redeeming their claims, the mismatch was exposed. There wasn’t enough for everyone. Inflation halted and the bubbles popped.
What’s surprising is how similar the process remains today, even without a gold anchor. Every loan is effectively new money created into existence, and at the same time it represents future demand for money when repayment comes due. When loans are repaid, the money disappears from the system and inflation stops, or at least stalls. The difference now is that the system can be pumped much more easily. There is no true anchor, and money can be created with a keystroke.
And right now inflation is in a violent balance between monetary and fiscal forces, both hypersensitive to any drop in liquidity and both with almost no tolerance for real pain. Even with all their tools, they still regularly manage to screw up, creating boom and bust cycles that must be rescued with even more aggressive responses.
In summary, in the era of perpetual liquidity we move from one bubble to the next, often in unexpected places. The focus may be on new technologies, but it also spreads to the industries around them, often including related areas like real estate, commodities, or services. It can even show up in the pursuit of stability in the form of crowding into hard money or alternative financial systems, into anything that feels like an escape.
In this environment, speculation doesn’t feel like a choice; it’s something people are pushed into simply to keep up. In an era of inflation, fewer people are rewarded for hard work alone, and more are rewarded by being on the right side of misallocations. There is nothing wrong with wanting to be on the winning side in this situation, so we’ll keep doing our best to make that happen.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-four, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC is only now starting to catch up on delayed Commitment of Traders (COT) report releases. Normal publication is expected to resume on January 23, 2026. As a result, this week’s positioning data reflects the most recently available CFTC report along with data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• 5-YEAR T-NOTE: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• 30-YEAR T-BOND: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CORN – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CORN – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Sunday, December 7
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Adjusted Current Account (Oct)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Current Account n.s.a. (Oct)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q3)
• 22:00 🇨🇳 Imports (YoY) (Nov)
• 22:00 🇨🇳 Trade Balance USD (Nov)
• 22:00 🇨🇳 Exports (YoY) (Nov)
Monday, December 8
Holidays: 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇲🇹 Malta — Feast of the Immaculate Conception
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 03:00 🇨🇭 SECO Consumer Climate (Nov)
• 11:00 🇺🇸 NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Nov)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 3-Year Note Auction
• 19:01 🇬🇧 BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Nov)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Nov)
• 22:30 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 23:30 🇦🇺 RBA Rate Statement
Tuesday, December 9
Holidays: 🇹🇿 Tanzania (Independence Day)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German Trade Balance (Oct)
• 03:00 🇪🇺 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
• 07:00 🇲🇽 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 07:00 🇲🇽 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 12:00 🇺🇸 WASDE Report
• 13:00 🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 20:30 🇨🇳 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 20:30 🇨🇳 PPI (YoY) (Nov)
Wednesday, December 10
Holidays: 🇹🇭 Thailand (Constitution Day)
• 05:55 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 07:00 🇧🇷 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3)
• 09:45 🇨🇦 BoC Rate Statement
• 09:45 🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇨🇦 BoC Press Conference
• 11:00 🇷🇺 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 11:00 🇷🇺 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance (Nov)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Interest Rate Projection, 1st Year (Q4)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Interest Rate Projection, 2nd Year (Q4)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Interest Rate Projection, 3rd Year (Q4)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Interest Rate Projection, Current (Q4)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Interest Rate Projection, Longer Run (Q4)
• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Economic Projections
• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Statement
• 14:00 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 14:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference
• 16:30 🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision
• 18:50 🇯🇵 BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Employment Change (Nov)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Full Employment Change (Nov)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Thursday, December 11
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
• 03:30 🇨🇭 SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
• 03:30 🇨🇭 SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 04:00 🇺🇸 IEA Monthly Report
• 04:30 🇨🇭 SNB Press Conference
• 04:50 🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Eurogroup Meetings
• 06:00 🇹🇷 One-Week Repo Rate (Dec)
• 07:00 🇺🇸 OPEC Monthly Report
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Exports (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Imports (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Sep)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance (Sep)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
• 16:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (Nov)
• 16:45 🇳🇿 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 23:30 🇯🇵 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
Friday, December 12
Holidays: 🇲🇽 Mexico (Bank Holiday), 🇰🇪 Kenya (Independence Day)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Monthly GDP 3M/3M (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Trade Balance (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Trade Balance Non EU (Oct)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:45 🇫🇷 HICP (MoM) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇪🇸 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇨🇳 New Loans (Nov)
• 05:30 🇮🇳 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 07:00 🇬🇧 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Building Permits (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 11:00 🇷🇺 GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q3)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Earnings this week:
Monday, December 8
• Toll Brothers $TOL (NYSE) – Consumer/Real Estate 🇺🇸
Tuesday, December 9
• AutoZone $AZO (NYSE) – Consumer/Auto Parts 🇺🇸
• Ferguson $FERG (LSE) – Industrials/Distribution 🇬🇧
• Casey’s General Stores $CASY (NASDAQ) – Consumer/Staples Retail 🇺🇸
• AeroVironment $AVAV (NASDAQ) – Industrials/Defense Tech 🇺🇸
• Campbell Soup $CPB (NYSE) – Consumer/Staples 🇺🇸
• GameStop $GME (NYSE) – Consumer/Entertainment Retail 🇺🇸
• Thyssenkrupp $TKA (XETRA) – Industrials 🇩🇪
• Korn Ferry $KFY (NYSE) – Industrials/Consulting 🇺🇸
• North West Company $NWC (TSX) – Consumer/Retail 🇨🇦
• Cracker Barrel $CBRL (NASDAQ) – Consumer/Restaurants 🇺🇸
Wednesday, December 10
• Oracle $ORCL (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Adobe $ADBE (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Synopsys $SNPS (NASDAQ) – Technology/Semiconductor Software 🇺🇸
• Lennar $LEN (NYSE) – Consumer/Real Estate 🇺🇸
• Nordson $NDSN (NASDAQ) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Vail Resorts $MTN (NYSE) – Consumer/Travel & Leisure 🇺🇸
• Photronics $PLAB (NASDAQ) – Technology/Semiconductor Services 🇺🇸
• Transcontinental $TCLA (TSX) – Industrials/Packaging 🇨🇦
• Evertz Technologies $ET (TSX) – Technology/Media Hardware 🇨🇦
• Oxford Industries $OXM (NYSE) – Consumer/Apparel 🇺🇸
Thursday, December 11
• Broadcom $AVGO (NASDAQ) – Technology/Semiconductors 🇺🇸
• Costco Wholesale $COST (NASDAQ) – Consumer Retail 🇺🇸
• Dollarama $DOL (TSX) – Consumer/Retail 🇨🇦
• Jabil $JBL (NYSE) – Technology/Manufacturing Services 🇺🇸
• Ciena $CIEN (NYSE) – Technology/Networking 🇺🇸
• Lululemon Athletica $LULU (NASDAQ) – Consumer/Apparel 🇺🇸
• Empire Company $EMPA (TSX) – Consumer/Staples/Retail 🇨🇦
• Restoration Hardware $RH (NYSE) – Consumer/Home Furnishings 🇺🇸
• Enghouse Systems $ENGH (TSX) – Technology/Software 🇨🇦
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
