Markets Update – December 29, 2025

Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture

“In investing, there is nothing that always works, since the environment is always changing, and investors’ efforts to respond to the environment cause it to change further.”

Howard Marks, from Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side, published in 2018

It’s the last update of the year, so let’s zoom out and reflect a little. I think when future historians describe the rapidly shifting landscape of markets and investing, they’ll likely refer to the 2020s decade.

We’re just over halfway through, and it’s already packed with events that could span a lifetime: a global pandemic with lockdowns, mass job losses, and oil prices turning negative for the first time ever. Then the largest fiscal and monetary response since World War II followed, creating an everything bubble: surging stocks, real estate, crypto, you name it. It’s hard to believe some were calling for deflation at the time, others were also dismissing inflation as transitory.

Then came a major war in Europe, unseen at this scale since World War II, sending already rising oil to $120–$130 per barrel. Inflation hit 1970s highs, prompting rapid, panicked rate hikes by central banks and crashes in stocks, bonds, and commodities, thus completing the fastest cycle on record.

The dust settled slowly, but what followed was perhaps even more distortive and undesirable: a K-shaped recovery. With the rise of AI, we entered a new upswing where a few prosper but most are squeezed. Inflation rates may have fallen, but they do little for permanently higher costs of living, particularly amid massive government spending, deficits, and tax incentives going to all the wrong places. Still, just as stability seemed near, tariffs sparked a flash crash, and even if later walked back, it has initiated a severe reshaping of global financial and security orders. Navigating this chaos deserves respect, and I congratulate all of you who’ve made it through relatively successfully.

So, what now one may ask? Traditional economic and credit cycles may be distorted and less clear than ever but make no mistake, they’re still grinding relentlessly through the system.

I believe we’re in the late stage of this one, where commodities, real economy assets, and related equities tend to do well. Major economies and their politicians are set to increase transfers to bandage growing inequality; pushes for better infrastructure and defense are also underway. It’s fiscal policy that will shape what comes next, and these policies are likely inflationary.

That said, it’s for the very same reason that we must be careful, these outcomes are dictated by a few people, they can change their mind or simply fail in their attempts. As long as oil and energy stay cheap, this game can continue, but once they give way, I’d expect global short and long-term rates can rise even more, right into the ongoing massive refinancing cycle.

I believe that’s what Howard Marks is trying to say here: markets are in perpetual evolution. Nothing works forever in investing because the environment is not stable, particularly right now. As a result, our responses to it keep shifting, and they should. Adaptability will be essential; I don’t think we’ll escape volatility in the coming years.

As for the short term, much will unfold in the coming weeks, especially into mid-January. As 2025 ends so does the thin holiday liquidity filled with sharp, exaggerated moves, it’s now that we’ll see serious allocation shifts. Observing the market’s signals is crucial. The tape will reveal plenty, confirming ongoing trends, ending some, and igniting others. I see my role at this time to observe impartially, adapt my current outlook, and act only when the message aligns clearly.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-seven, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC is only now starting to catch up on delayed Commitment of Traders (COT) report releases. Normal publication is expected to resume soon, on December 31, 2025. As a result, this week’s positioning data reflects the most recently available CFTC report along with data from other exchanges.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- MSCI EAFE - DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

- DAX - GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NASDAQ 100 - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- KRW/USD - SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩

- NOK/USD - NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NZD/USD - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- BRL/USD - BRAZILIAN REAL: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥

- NZD/USD - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- STEEL HRC - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

- NICKEL - LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NICKEL - LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- STEEL HRC - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NATURAL GAS - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- 5-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

- 10-YEAR T-NOTE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- COTTON NO. 2 - UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

- ORANGE JUICE - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

- COCOA - UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- CORN - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

- SOYBEANS - UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

- COTTON NO. 2 - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

- ORANGE JUICE - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

- SUGAR NO. 11 - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

- LUMBER - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩

- SOYBEANS - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥

- SOYBEAN MEAL - UNITED STATES: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

Key Economic Events This Week

Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:

Monday, December 29

Holidays: 🇲🇳 Mongolia (Liberation Day)

• 06:00 🇪🇺 France Jobseekers Total (Nov)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)

• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

• 11:00 🇷🇺 CPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 11:00 🇷🇺 CPI (YoY) (Dec)

Tuesday, December 30

Holidays: 🇵🇭 Philippines (Rizal Day)

• 01:00 🇷🇺 S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)

• 03:00 🇨🇭 KOF Leading Indicators (Dec)

• 03:00 🇪🇺 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 03:00 🇪🇺 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec)

• 06:30 🇧🇷 Gross Debt-to-GDP ratio (MoM) (Nov)

• 07:00 🇧🇷 Unemployment Rate (Nov)

• 09:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Oct)

• 09:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Oct)

• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes

• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

• 20:30 🇨🇳 Chinese Composite PMI (Dec)

• 20:30 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 20:30 🇨🇳 Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 20:45 🇨🇳 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Dec)

Wednesday, December 31

Holidays: Multiple countries (e.g., 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮Finland, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇯🇵Japan, 🇰🇷 South Korea) - New Year’s Day or equivalent Holidays (early close): Multiple markets (e.g., Peru at 11:52, Philippines at 11:55, Hong Kong at 12:00, Ireland at 12:28, United Kingdom at 12:30, New Zealand at 12:45, Netherlands/Belgium at 13:55, Spain at 14:00, Australia at 14:00, France/Portugal at 14:05) - New Year’s Day early close

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims

• 09:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Dec)

• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

• 15:30 🇬🇧 CFTC GBP speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇺🇸 CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇺🇸 CFTC Gold speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇺🇸 CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇺🇸 CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇦🇺 CFTC AUD speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇧🇷 CFTC BRL speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇯🇵 CFTC JPY speculative net positions

• 15:30 🇪🇺 CFTC EUR speculative net positions

Thursday, January 1, 2026

Holidays: Multiple countries worldwide (e.g., 🇺🇸 United States, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇨🇭Switzerland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇫🇷 France, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇧🇪Belgium, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇭🇰 Hong Kong, 🇿🇦South Africa, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇵🇸 Palestinian Territory, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇹🇷 Türkiye, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇨🇳 China, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇧🇼Botswana, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇹🇿Tanzania, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇧🇦Bosnia-Herzegovina, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇯🇲Jamaica, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇧🇲 Bermuda, 🇰🇾 Cayman Islands, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom, 🇸🇰 Slovakia (Republic Day), 🇹🇼 Taiwan (New Year)) - New Year’s Day or equivalent

Friday, January 2, 2026

Holidays: 🇷🇺 Russia (New Year’s Day), 🇷🇴 Romania (New Year’s Day), 🇸🇮 Slovenia (New Year’s Day), 🇳🇿 New Zealand (New Year’s Day), 🇲🇺 Mauritius (New Year’s Day), 🇷🇼 Rwanda (New Year’s Day), 🇷🇸 Serbia (New Year’s Day), 🇨🇳 China (New Year’s Day), 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan (New Year’s Day), 🇲🇪 Montenegro (New Year’s Day),🇧🇬 Bulgaria (Bank Holiday), 🇭🇺 Hungary (Public Holiday), 🇨🇭 Switzerland (Berchtold’s Day), 🇯🇵 Japan (Market Holiday), 🇧🇼 Botswana (Market Holiday), 🇲🇹 Malta (Market Holiday), 🇹🇭 Thailand (Special Holiday)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Dec)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Dec)

• 03:00 🇪🇺 Spanish Unemployment Change (Dec)

• 03:15 🇪🇺 HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 03:30 🇨🇭 procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 03:45 🇪🇺 HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 03:50 🇪🇺 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 03:55 🇪🇺 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov)

• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet

Earnings this week:

None

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com