Markets Update – December 22, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance.
All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself - from the tape.”
Richard D. Wyckoff (from his teachings on tape reading, notably in Studies in Tape Reading, originally published in 1910 under the pseudonym Rollo Tape)
I often found it hard to accept at the beginning of my investing and trading career. After all, I’ve done my research, I know where the asset or stock should go based on fundamentals, valuations, or macro themes, but the markets often did not agree right away, did not agree in a timeframe I was expecting, or did not agree at all.
It took some time to truly internalize that for the purpose of trading, or reasonable timed investing gains, my opinions were secondary to what the price action is actually saying. The truth is that we operate in a world of constant changes, some we see right away, some are hidden and will show up first in price action, only to be revealed later on to the public.
Stock, asset, and commodity prices were always made by the collective minds of people: fear, greed, hope, desperation, and now we deal also with institutional flows, and algorithmic responses. As such, it can’t be an exact science. The “tape” (or today’s charts, order flow, volume profiles, and real-time data) reflects the battle between buyers and sellers, battle fought with real money, often revealing truths long before the news headlines catch up. At the end it really is about supply and demand.
It’s my strong belief that humility in front of price action is what separates enduring traders from those who burn out. Wyckoff’s era of ticker tapes and bucket shops may seem distant, and in fact it is more than a century old, but the principle remains even more relevant in today’s hyper-liquid, algo-driven markets.
As we close out 2025 with holiday low liquidity and potential for sharp, exaggerated moves, shuffling and changing allocations, this mindset of taking orders from the market feels especially important. The tape will say a lot now and in the first weeks of January, confirming existing trends, ending others, and starting new ones. I see my role at this time to observe impartially, adapt my current outlook, and act only when the message aligns clearly.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-six, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC is only now starting to catch up on delayed Commitment of Traders (COT) report releases. Normal publication is expected to resume soon, on December 31, 2025. As a result, this week’s positioning data reflects the most recently available CFTC report along with data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: Neutral 🟨 ➝ Positive 🟩
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: Positive 🟩 ➝ Neutral 🟨
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: Negative 🟥 ➝ Neutral 🟨
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Sunday, December 21
• 20:00 🇨🇳 China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Dec)
• 23:00 🇲🇾 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Monday, December 22
Holidays: 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe (Unity Day)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Current Account (Q3)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 RMPI (MoM) (Nov)
Tuesday, December 23
• 00:00 🇸🇬 Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 00:00 🇸🇬 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 03:00 🇪🇺 Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts
• 08:30 🇨🇦 GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
• 11:30 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
Wednesday, December 24
Holidays: 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇧🇷 Brazil (Christmas Eve), 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France (early close), 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland (early close), 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇳🇱 Netherlands (early close), 🇳🇿 New Zealand (early close), 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal (early close), 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain (early close), 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom (early close), 🇺🇸 United States (early close)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, December 25
Holidays: 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇧🇬Bulgaria, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇱Netherlands, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇸 Palestinian Territories, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇵🇭Philippines, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇿🇦South Africa, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇺🇦Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom, 🇺🇸 United States, 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
• 18:30 🇯🇵 Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
Friday, December 26
Holidays: 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇯🇲Jamaica, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom (Boxing Day)
• 11:00 🇷🇺 Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
• 11:00 🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 12:06 🇷🇺 GDP Monthly (YoY) (Nov)
Earnings this week:
Tuesday, December 23
• J FRONT RETAILING 3086:JP 🇯🇵
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
