Markets Update – December 15, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic...
There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”
Paul Tudor Jones
Almost nothing will test an investor or trader more than inflection points. They are undoubtedly one of the most difficult things to get your head around. First and foremost, they require a contrarian stance. We are, after all, making decisions before the trend changes.
Being contrarian may sound good. We want to be different from the crowd to outperform. And many think correctly that it’s worth it, that it’s justified. Catching inflection points can be tremendously profitable. What they don’t often tell you is how volatile it will be, how lonely and full of doubt one can feel, and how much patience it can eventually take. With that in mind, let’s talk briefly about that last third of both the bear and the bull market.
One could give countless examples. What comes to mind from the recent past could be the 2020 pandemic-driven commodity crash and the subsequent 2021–2022 top, involving oil, industrial metals, agriculture, you name it. Another one would be 2022-2023 bottom in precious metals, although it’s hard to believe, they really were hated not that long ago.
But for the purpose of this update, let’s talk about the AI, the latest favorite of Wall Street and almost every asset manager on the planet. It is the sector whose performance will determine the pensions and wellbeing of tens of millions of families, pretty much everyone heavily invested in passive vehicles, particularly through pension accounts.
But it wasn’t always the favorite asset. To truly understand the dynamics of inflection, we must go back to late 2022 and early 2023. At that time, Nasdaq and technology were hated. A brutal and fast interest-rate and inflation-driven bear market had taken them down close to -40 percent in just one year from the late-2021 peak. But then subtle signs of bottoming started to appear, ChatGPT was released to the public, and an inflection point was established, before trends started to shift.
Market crowds have increasingly short memories, but I remember it very well. The tendency was to mock the AI trade, or worse, to short it. It was the easy choice. The atmosphere was terrible after a down year, doom newsletters were selling very well, and the incentive for many was to be cautious. After all, if they were wrong, they would be wrong together with everyone else, and that kind of mistake doesn’t get you fired.
Those very few who took the opposite stance had an entirely different experience. They were subjects of mockery. They risked their careers and reputations and were tested multiple times during a period of high volatility, as is often the case at the end of a bear market. But was it worth it, even when initial positions were often red for months? Absolutely. We must remember that the math of going long is far more rewarding. The lower the price of an asset, the higher the potential gain, not linearly better, but exponentially so. Catching inflection points at very low prices can produce truly outstanding returns.
So, what about the other end - the last third of a bull market? In many ways, it’s similar, particularly when it comes to returns. It’s not easy to keep your position when you know the market has become tremendously overbought and overvalued, especially when volatility picks up, as it almost inevitably does. You like the assets, you’ve done the work, you’ve researched them, and you believe in your thesis. You know that maintaining exposure can turn a 3x return into a 5x return, and that acceleration often happens in the final phase of a bull market. That is also what makes it so difficult to sell. Emotions take over, positions become too large, and more nights turn sleepless.
So how is one to get their head around it? How does one deal with participating in inflection points, when the rewards are clearly worth it? Good news is that there are simple and well-tested strategies out there. Scaling in and scaling out works well, reducing the speculative portion of a trade, and moving up the quality ladder can do the job as well. Others involve more complex approaches, such as timely hedging with options / paying for insurance, or replacing core positions with limited-risk asymmetric structures.
But to be honest, nothing truly prepares you for trading inflection points. When trends change, volatility explodes, moves become illogical, and confidence is constantly tested it’s simply extremely difficult without prior experience. I’m yet to meet anyone who did it perfectly on their first try, and I know of only a few who have truly mastered it over the course of their careers. There’s a reason for it, the crowd-following mentality dominates this business, sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always delivering average results.
Personally, I find it far easier to trade the end of bear markets. True value and time are on my side, and I’ve learned to filter out mockery and negativity, I’ve learned to embrace it.
The end of bull markets was initially much harder for me. I struggled to stay with the trend, didn’t know how to discount crowd madness, and only later learned how to use hedging strategies properly.
It can be managed, but not immediately. One must live through it to understand it. The best will take notes, journal the experience, and revisit / learn from it later. But don’t beat yourself up if you don’t get it right the first time. There will be many bull markets ahead, some in assets we never expected, or ones that don’t exist yet. With time comes experience, with experience comes understanding, and with understanding come confidence and results.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-five, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC is only now starting to catch up on delayed Commitment of Traders (COT) report releases. Normal publication is expected to resume on January 23, 2026. As a result, this week’s positioning data reflects the most recently available CFTC report along with data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• EUR/USD – EURO: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANK: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Monday, December 15
• 01:30 🇮🇳 WPI Inflation (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:30 🇨🇭 PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:15 🇨🇦 Housing Starts (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 19:30 🇯🇵 au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Tuesday, December 16
Holidays: 🇿🇦 South Africa (Day of Reconciliation), 🇳🇦 Namibia (Day of Reconciliation), 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan (Independence Day), 🇧🇭 Bahrain (National Day), 🇧🇩 Bangladesh (National Day)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change (Nov)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Oct)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 03:15 🇪🇺 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 03:15 🇪🇺 HCOB France Services PMI (Dec)
• 03:30 🇪🇺 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 03:30 🇪🇺 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 German ZEW Current Conditions (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Trade Balance (Oct)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Control (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)
• 12:30 🇨🇦 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
• 15:00 🇳🇿 Westpac Consumer Sentiment
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 16:45 🇳🇿 Current Account (QoQ)
Wednesday, December 17
• 02:00 🇬🇧 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 PPI Input (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇹🇭 Interest Rate Decision
• 02:30 🇮🇩 Interest Rate Decision
• 04:00 🇪🇺 German Business Expectations (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 German Current Assessment (Dec)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q3)
• 08:15 🇺🇸 Fed Waller Speaks
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Foreign Securities Purchases (Oct)
• 09:05 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 12:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 13:00 🇺🇸 20-Year Bond Auction
• 16:45 🇳🇿 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
Thursday, December 18
Holidays: 🇶🇦 Qatar (National Day)
• 03:00 🇹🇼 Interest Rate (Q4)
• 03:30 🇸🇪 Interest Rate Decision
• 04:00 🇳🇴 Interest Rate Decision
• 07:00 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 07:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 07:30 🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 08:15 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 08:45 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 16:00 🇺🇸 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Oct)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance Sheet
• 18:30 🇯🇵 National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 22:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Friday, December 19
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇩🇪 German PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan)
• 05:30 🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 PCE price index (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price index (YoY) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Nov)
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Saturday, December 20
• 08:15 🇨🇳 China Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Dec)
• 08:15 🇨🇳 PBoC Loan Prime Rate
Earnings this week:
Monday, December 15
• Enghouse Systems $ENGH (TSX) – Software 🇨🇦
Tuesday, December 16
• Lennar $LEN (NYSE) – Homebuilders 🇺🇸
• Worthington Industries $WOR (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
Wednesday, December 17
• Micron Technology $MU (NASDAQ) – Semiconductors 🇺🇸
• General Mills $GIS (NYSE) – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸
• Jabil Circuit $JBL (NYSE) – Electronics Manufacturing 🇺🇸
• Toro $TTC (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• ABM Industries $ABM (NYSE) – Business Services 🇺🇸
• Enerpac Tool Group $ATU (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• MillerKnoll $MLHR (NASDAQ) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸
Thursday, December 18
• Nike $NKE (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸
• Cintas $CTAS (NASDAQ) – Business Services 🇺🇸
• FedEx $FDX (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Darden Restaurants $DRI (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸
• Heico $HEI (NYSE) – Aerospace & Defense 🇺🇸
• FactSet Research Systems $FDS (NYSE) – Financial Data & Analytics 🇺🇸
• Birkenstock $BIRK (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇩🇪
• CarMax $KMX (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸
• KB Home $KBH (NYSE) – Homebuilders 🇺🇸
• BlackBerry $BB (TSX) – Software 🇨🇦
• Scholastic $SCHL (NASDAQ) – Media & Publishing 🇺🇸
Friday, December 19
• Paychex $PAYX (NASDAQ) – Payroll & HR Services 🇺🇸
• Carnival $CCL (NYSE) – Travel & Leisure 🇺🇸
• Carnival PLC $CCL (LSE) – Travel & Leisure 🇬🇧
• Winnebago Industries $WGO (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
