Markets Update – December 1, 2025
Covering Equities, Forex, Treasuries, Metals, Energy, and Agriculture
“Keep in mind that since the market is in perpetual motion, it puts you in a position of having to make never-ending assessments of the current risk in relationship to the current possibilities for reward.
To do this effectively, you will have to learn to observe the market as if you were not in a position. This perspective will free you to take whatever action is appropriate for the situation instead of hesitating, hoping, and wishing that the market will make you right.”
Mark Douglas and Paula T. Webb, PhD, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes, 1990
It is natural to set your stops, define your exits, adjust sizing, and map out your profit targets. You can follow every good rule in the book, and you will likely do quite well. After all, the simplest methods often work the best and your nominal risk is defined by what you trade with.
Yet there is something that even experienced traders tend to overlook. Risk is not constant. It shifts as price moves, and it shifts with changes in the world around us. Plenty of best traders talk about reaching the next level when they learn to recognize those shifts and adjust dynamically, altering up both the exit stops and targets as conditions evolve.
I get a lot of questions about specific assets almost every day, and I am happy that I do. It reminds me that I had the very same considerations, and very little help when I was learning, often the hard way.
I am always glad to respond, but the answer almost always depends on when the question is asked. My view can change with price and with external conditions. It can vary month to month, week to week and sometimes day to day. Markets are always in motion. Prices move, and as they do, risk moves with them. External forces also reshape the expected profit constantly.
Take gold as an example. An entry at $2,000 dollars in the 2011 to 2013 topping phase was extremely risky. It had just done close to a 10X move over a decade. Bad economic news was everywhere, from the GFC and massive central bank support to the European debt crisis and high unemployment, and it was hard to imagine even more being priced in at those levels.
On the other hand, gold at $2,000 dollars two years ago was not very risky. Money supply had expanded significantly, interest rates were rising at the fastest pace in decades, forcing the bottom to reveal itself. And we started to break out on top of that. Risk will always depend on both the price level and the fundamental outlook.
As prices rise, the risk rises with them, even if the fundamental case stays the same. Every asset goes through two broad phases. The first is the investment phase, where you buy cheap, ideally well below value, and let time do the work. The second is the speculative phase, more volatile, less tied to fundamentals and driven by flows and emotion.
The first phase often attracts long-term interest, while the second tends to draw short-term, more speculative behavior. It does not mean you exit immediately or all at once. It means recognizing the environment you are in and being aware of how it changes the overall level of uncertainty.
One of the most useful exercises is to look at your position as if it were not yours at all. Imagine your favorite stock or asset doubled in a year, from $20,000 dollars to $40,000 dollars. Suddenly it is not 20 percent of your portfolio but 30 or even 35 percent.
Ask yourself: if I did not already own this, would I put $40,000 dollars into it today? How would I feel about holding such a large portion of my portfolio in it at today’s prices? What is my exit level now? What am I realistically expecting in one month or six months?
It is simple to ask these questions from the outside, but it is not easy to answer them honestly. Sometimes taking a step back from a position, even mentally, can make the situation easier to evaluate.
I learned over time, and often through pain, that trying to squeeze every last drop from a speculative market is dangerous. The people who bought the exact bottom and sold the exact top do not exist. It is a myth. In reality, most outcomes come from participating in the broader middle of a move by following our rules and making continuous, dynamic assessments of risk.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number sixty-three, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Note: Due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC is only now starting to catch up on delayed Commitment of Traders (COT) report releases. Normal publication is expected to resume on January 23, 2026. As a result, this week’s positioning data reflects the most recently available CFTC report along with data from other exchanges.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• DAX – GERMANY: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB $EWZ
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• EUR/USD – EURO: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• COBALT – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• 30-YEAR T-BOND: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Downtrend 🟥
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: Downtrend 🟥 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: Uptrend 🟩 ➝ Sideways 🟨
• CORN – UNITED STATES: Sideways 🟨 ➝ Uptrend 🟩
COT POSITIONING CHANGES LAST WEEK:
• None
Medium-Term Trend: trailing 4 months | Short-Term Trend: trailing 4 weeks
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
Key Economic Events This Week
Times in GMT -5 / New York Time:
Sunday, November 30
• 05:00 🇺🇸 OPEC Meeting
• 18:50 🇯🇵 Capital Spending (YoY) (Q3)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3)
• 20:45 🇨🇳 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Nov)
• 23:00 🇪🇺 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Monday, December 1
Holidays: 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates (National Day), 🇷🇴 Romania (National Day), 🇨🇷 Costa Rica (National Day), 🇵🇹Portugal (Restoration of Independence)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 03:15 🇪🇺 HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 03:30 🇨🇭 procure.ch Manufacturing PMI
• 03:45 🇪🇺 HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 03:50 🇪🇺 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 03:55 🇪🇺 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 04:00 🇵🇱 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 04:00 🇵🇱 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Dec)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov)
• 12:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Current Account (Q3)
• 20:00 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 22:35 🇯🇵 10-Year JGB Auction
Tuesday, December 2
Holidays: 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates (National Day)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 BoE Financial Stability Report
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:30 🇭🇺 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 03:00 🇪🇺 Spanish Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 04:00 🇧🇷 IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 04:30 🇿🇦 GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 10:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
• 16:30 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 19:30 🇦🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 19:30 🇯🇵 au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Nov)
• 20:45 🇨🇳 Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
Wednesday, December 3
• 01:00 🇷🇺 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇹🇷 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:30 🇨🇭 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 03:15 🇪🇺 HCOB Spain Services PMI (Nov)
• 03:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 03:45 🇪🇺 HCOB Italy Services PMI (Nov)
• 03:50 🇪🇺 HCOB France Services PMI (Nov)
• 03:55 🇪🇺 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Nov)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov)
• 04:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 05:30 🇪🇺 ECB’s Lane Speaks
• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Export Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)
• 08:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov)
• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov)
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 11:00 🇷🇺 Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
• 11:00 🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 12:00 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
• 13:31 🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 13:31 🇷🇺 GDP Monthly (YoY) (Oct)
• 19:30 🇦🇺 Trade Balance (Oct)
Thursday, December 4
Holidays: 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka (Unduwap Full Moon Poya Day)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇸🇪 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 03:30 🇨🇭 procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 04:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 07:00 🇧🇷 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 07:45 🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance (Sep)
• 10:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI (Nov)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 ECB’s Lane Speaks
• 12:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 13:00 🇪🇺 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
• 18:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)
• 18:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)
• 23:30 🇮🇳 Interest Rate Decision
Friday, December 5
Holidays: 🇹🇭 Thailand (H.M. the Late King’s Birthday)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
• 02:00 🇪🇺 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 05:00 🇬🇧 Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Nov)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 05:00 🇪🇺 GDP (YoY)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Employment Change (Nov)
• 08:30 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep)
• 10:10 🇪🇺 ECB’s Lane Speaks
• 11:20 🇪🇺 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
• 13:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
• 15:00 🇺🇸 Consumer Credit (Oct)
Earnings this week:
Monday, December 1
• MongoDB $MDB (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Metcash $MTS (ASX) – Consumer/Staples 🇦🇺
Tuesday, December 2
• CrowdStrike Holdings $CRWD (NASDAQ) – Technology/Cybersecurity 🇺🇸
• Scotiabank $BNS (NYSE) – Financials 🇺🇸
• Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• Okta $OKTA (NASDAQ) – Technology/Security 🇺🇸
• Box $BOX (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• American Eagle Outfitters $AEO (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Victrex $VCT (LSE) – Materials 🇬🇧
Wednesday, December 3
• Salesforce $CRM (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Royal Bank of Canada $RY (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• Inditex $ITX (BME) – Consumer/Clothing 🇪🇸
• Synopsys $SNPS (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• National Bank of Canada $NA (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• Dollarama $DOL (TSX) – Consumer 🇨🇦
• Guidewire Software $GWRE (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Dollar Tree $DLTR (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Campbell Soup $CPB (NYSE) – Consumer/Staples 🇺🇸
• Five Below $FIVE (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Descartes Systems $DSG (TSX) – Technology 🇨🇦
• GameStop $GME (NYSE) – Consumer/Entertainment 🇺🇸
• Thor Industries $THO (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Macy’s $M (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• PVH $PVH (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Industrias CH $ICHB (BMV) – Industrials 🇲🇽
• EQB $EQB (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• North West Company $NWC (TSX) – Consumer 🇨🇦
• Verint Systems $VRNT (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Oxford Industries $OXM (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
Thursday, December 4
• TD Bank $TD (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• Bank of Montreal $BMO (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• CIBC $CM (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
• Kroger $KR (NYSE) – Consumer/Staples 🇺🇸
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Ulta Beauty $ULTA (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Dollar General $DG (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Lululemon Athletica $LULU (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Cooper Companies $COO (NYSE) – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• Sekisui House $1928 (TSE) – Real Estate/Construction 🇯🇵
• DocuSign $DOCU (NASDAQ) – Technology 🇺🇸
• Hormel Foods $HRL (NYSE) – Consumer/Staples 🇺🇸
• Donaldson $DCI (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• Frasers Group $FRAS (LSE) – Consumer 🇬🇧
• Vail Resorts $MTN (NYSE) – Consumer/Travel 🇺🇸
• Science Applications International $SAIC (NYSE) – Technology/Defense 🇺🇸
• BRP $DOO (TSX) – Consumer 🇨🇦
• Aurubis $NDA (XETRA) – Materials 🇩🇪
• Korn Ferry International $KFY (NYSE) – Industrials 🇺🇸
• National Beverage $FIZZ (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Restoration Hardware $RH (NYSE) – Consumer 🇺🇸
• Cracker Barrel Old Country Store $CBRL (NASDAQ) – Consumer 🇺🇸
Friday, December 5
• Laurentian Bank of Canada $LB (TSX) – Financials 🇨🇦
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research - cerlogic.substack.com
Thank you. Here are my Sep PCE inflation estimates: https://open.substack.com/pub/arkominaresearch/p/sep-2025-pce-inflation-estimate?r=1r1n6n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false