“To be a good trader, you have to be good at doing nothing.” - Ed Seykota
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
Summer is over now, at least in markets. The low volume, low volatility grind managed to carry the equities slightly higher. Nvidia earnings are in, the stock is up, and with it the Nasdaq as well.
Now, we’re looking into the quarterly OpEx in September. It is right ahead of us, followed by the elections, of course.
The incentive is to keep everything inflated, and we already know they are extremely proactive. The question is whether they can keep managing the tape, or whether we are heading into a period of significant volatility.
Developed markets are holding up after their recent breakouts, even with the dollar ticking up. In Asia the AI trade remains the main driver. South Korea is still at that turning point, may be setting up for another run. Taiwan continues to hold strong, Japan & China are taking a breather again.
Otherwise not much changes in the general outlook. Governments are spending like there’s no tomorrow. The private sector has also joined the party. The global AI race is on, funded by an unbelievable amount of debt.
I don’t know how, when, or if it ends. It really depends on the money creation. It just never seems to stop, and it keeps reinforcing the K-shaped economy, globally. So we’ll see. In the meantime, we’ll follow the trends, as always.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
FOREX
And there’s the dollar, waking up after the Jackson Hole speech, but for how long? Next few weeks will be quite telling.
Dollar up, gold down, at least for now it seems. Uptrend holds, so wall of worry continues. We’re well positioned already, so now we’re just looking to pyramid and size up, more strategically, only as opportunities present themselves.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and the rest of crypto held onto their gains, though the speculative move cooled down a bit. Still; I’d prefer that this move wasn’t driven by government news, but it is what it is.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend ➝ sideways
• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend ➝ sideways
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend ➝ sideways
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend ➝ sideways
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: negative ➝ neutral
• EUR/USD – EURO: positive ➝ neutral
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: positive ➝ neutral
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: positive ➝ neutral
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: positive ➝ neutral
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Copper, silver, platinum, palladium, still higher, still moving up. And yet, there is little belief out there that this move is real, good, wall of worry is preferable, means not many are long here. Anything can happen of course, but for us, it’s certainly not the reason to worry or worse, change the trading system.
Copper turned back up this week, hitting new highs in London, short-term back into an uptrend. Still, there’s that tariffs driven US hoarding in the mix. It’ll likely unwind at some point, regardless of the decision, and the decision never seems to arrive.
The base side keeps sorting itself out. Lithium and lead pushed up into short-term uptrends, and iron ore finally clawed off its lows to sideways. Tin cooled back a bit and uranium is now I both the medium and short-term uptrends, right on time as the seasonal strength kicks in.
As always, we keep what is working, and we cut what is not, and early, all in all we’re just riding the waves.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
• IRON ORE, 61% – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral ➝ positive
ENERGIES
This week I’ll just say that what happens next, in the short term, is political. The Middle East, Russia, I certainly don’t know.
What we do know is the damage to the production capacity and depletion of reserves, and it’ll be with us for years to come.
It’ll probably extend to what would anyways be an underinvestment crisis, which was set to bite into the end of this decade. There will be a lot of money to be made on the services side, and we’re ready for it. Our core long-term energy equity positions stay on.
Natural gas flipped to an uptrend here, something to watch for sure. Coal continues as well, although it could be faster, to my liking only of course.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DIESEL – UNITED STATES: no data ➝ neutral
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
TREASURIES
The week was all about Jackson Hole on Friday. The market walked in largely hedged, leaning hawkish. First reaction took 2-year yield up, and calmed the long end, but that didn’t last long.
Whatever the markets heard, it clearly wasn’t hawkish enough, yields spiked hard across the whole curve into the close, the long end leading the way. It’ll clearly take more than small potential hike to change that dynamic.
Markets seem to see the same as we do, and it’s that nothing structural has changed. More deficits, more issuance, more money supply.
One hawkish-sounding speech doesn’t change it. We still take no longs here.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
AGRICULTURE
The ags keep taking turns, and the grain complex is leading now. Wheat, rice, soybeans, corn, all up. Softs are more mixed, sugar is running, cotton as well, cocoa is breaking out again, but coffee cooled off.
The bigger picture hasn’t moved, and it points up. The fertilizer and energy damage is done, and El Niño is still out there. We stay long where the trends hold, and let the prices move as far as necessary to incentivize production.
The crush spread setup we’ve got our eye on is right here, and it’s building, though it may only really move into 2027. We’ll see. Patience is key.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Nice report, Piotr. Thank you. You got correctly the rise of Au and Ag.
Im' going to buy Aurubis AG shares tomorrow. Recycling company in Germany, profitable.
Recovers Au and Ag from scrap metals amongst other metals.
Have a good week ahead.
Thank You for your Work