“I look for confirmation from the chart, the fundamentals, and the market action. I think you can trade anything in the world that way.”
Michael Marcus
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
Summer is ending, and with it the low volume, low volatility grind that managed to carry the US markets slightly higher. But now, we are moving into a completely different dynamic.
August OpEx (Option Expiration) is behind us. The next important one is the quarterly OpEx in September, followed by the elections of course.
The incentive is to keep everything inflated, and we already know they are extremely proactive. The question is whether they can keep managing the tape, or whether we are heading into a period of significant volatility. I lean toward the second outcome.
Europe and other developed markets are holding up after their recent breakouts, a weaker dollar certainly helps. In Asia the AI trade remains the main driver. Taiwan continues to hold strong, and South Korea is at a turning point, may be setting up for another run. Also, Japan has cooled off a bit, and China is starting to show the first signs of life.
Otherwise not much changes in the general outlook. Governments are spending like there’s no tomorrow. The private sector has also joined the party. The global AI race is on, funded by an unbelievable amount of debt.
I don’t know how, when, or if it ends. It really depends on the money creation. It just never seems to stop, and it keeps reinforcing the K-shaped economy, globally. So we’ll see. In the meantime, we’ll follow the trends, as always.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend ➝ sideways
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: positive ➝ neutral
FOREX
There it is, another week of the dollar downtrend. Currencies of commodity-rich countries were particularly strong lately.
And gold of course, it keeps pushing higher. We’re well positioned already, so now we’re just looking to pyramid / size up, more strategically, only as opportunities present themselves.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and the rest of crypto had a great week, but it pains me to see it driven by government news. I quite like this space and what it could still become, if only we went back to the original principles of personal freedom and independent finance.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: sideways ➝ uptrend
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: neutral ➝ positive
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative ➝ neutral
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: neutral ➝ positive
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Silver, platinum and palladium had a good week, they keep grinding higher. And still, there is little belief out there that this move is real, good, wall of worry is preferable, means not many are long here. Anything can happen of course, but for us, it’s certainly not the reason to change the system.
Copper cooled to sideways on the short-term, but still holds the fort in the background. Still, there’s that tariffs driven US hoarding in the mix. It’ll likely unwind at some point, regardless of the decision that never seems to arrive.
Tin, zinc and stay strong, steel and aluminum will be whipped around now ba tariffs on Canada. Lithium, nickel and lead managed to escape downtrends.
Uranium is pushing higher now, right on time, seasonal strength has arrived.
As always, we keep what is working, and we cut what is not, and early, all in all we’re just riding the waves.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: positive ➝ neutral
ENERGIES
The Middle East act number .. I’ve honestly lost count. More of the same, somebody striking, somebody talking, and all of us exhausted watching the same game of chicken. And by the way, we’re what’s for dinner.
We’re trending up again, oil, diesel, gasoline may join as well. Distillate side stays very tight. Coal has also reclaimed uptrend, certainly worth noting.
In any case, the core long-term energy equity positions stay on, they’ve held up very well, and now are starting to trend up again.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
TREASURIES
Interesting week. The US Treasury announced more buying of long-term bonds, financed by short-term debt of course. It worked initially, but mostly on the dollar and gold. I think they wanted stocks higher. Well, you can’t always get what you want, as they say.
Yields dropped at first, then started climbing right back up. Then they upsized the buying intention, and yields still didn’t care. Buying a few billion more here and there won’t change the picture. You’d need a growth scare, deficit reduction, or a halt in lending, but of course they know that as well.
Since nothing structural has changed, or is about to change anytime soon, we’ll just keep playing this game. In the meantime, more deficits, more issuance, more supply, and a market that keeps front-running the extra easing that appears whenever something even starts to break. We still take no longs here.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
AGRICULTURE
The ags keep taking turns, and this week the bid broadened out. The whole grain complex has joined the softs. Corn, beans, wheat, rice, all in uptrends.
So they rotate, good, that’s how these things breathe. The bigger picture hasn’t moved, the fertilizer and energy damage is done and El Niño is still out there. We stay long where the trends hold, and let the sector sort itself out.
The crush spread setup we’ve got our eye on lives right in this soy complex, and it’s starting to move, though it may really only resolve into 2027, and we’ll say of course if we put that trade on.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Thank you Kacper!