“The consistency you seek is in your mind, not in the markets.”
Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone, 2000
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
What a week, just like that squeeze across the board, they bought it all back. VIX got crushed and we’ve made new highs in just about everything but the Nasdaq.
Two things did it: they called off strikes early in the week, oil dropped, and the imminent inflation spike got postponed. Then Friday’s jobs report came in, quite ugly, payrolls actually shrank, and the hike bets got torn up.
Guidance or not, bad news is still good news in these distorted markets.
Will it last, or will we retrace? That question is better answered with purely mechanical dynamics: passive flows, fund flows, options positioning, just about anything but the fundamentals. These are the markets right now.
So what do we do? We’ll follow and trade our favourite sectors, and as always, we won’t be selling, or what would be worse, shorting uptrends.
Now to Europe, and the broader developed markets. They continue higher after breaking out, may not also be reinforced by easing dollar. Lots of changes in Asia as well: China is still doing well, but now Japan and Taiwan have escaped their short-term downtrends, and South Korea may follow.
Otherwise not much changes in general outlook. Governments are spending like there’s no tomorrow, money is pouring into defense, some into green energy, now mining too, and anything else on the political agenda at the moment. And of course, in the private sector, the global AI capex race is on, the money keeps pouring down the datacenter chain.
All in all, the economy stays as K-shaped as it gets, and that dynamic is only reinforced by the brand new money creation, it just never seems to stop.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: downtrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: negative ➝ neutral
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
There it is, the dollar just fell into a downtrend, with the euro, the pound, the yen and basically everything else breaking up against it. The weak jobs number was the latest strike.
And gold, this is what we’ve been waiting on. It broke into an uptrend at last, right as the dollar rolled and oil came off, and silver came with it. So we’re done circling. We’re took our first positions, we’ll size up if we continue and will let the trend do the rest.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways ➝ downtrend
• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways ➝ uptrend
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ uptrend
• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: sideways ➝ uptrend
• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ uptrend
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend ➝ sideways
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: downtrend ➝ sideways
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: neutral ➝ negative
• EUR/USD – EURO: neutral ➝ positive
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: neutral ➝ positive
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: neutral ➝ positive
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: negative ➝ neutral
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
The precious side takes over. Platinum and palladium lead the way, then silver went to uptrend as well, and traders positioning flipped positive, there is almost no-one left on the long side now, yet.
The base side is where the give-back was, nickel and lead rolled into downtrends. So the rotation keeps spinning, but the character changed, this is a precious-led move now.
Copper is still holding the fort in the background, but be aware of tariffs driven US hoarding, at one point, it’ll unwind, regardless of the decision.
As always, we keep what is working, and we cut what is not, riding the waves.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: positive ➝ neutral
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
And the movie flips again, plot twist, they called off the strikes, again. Now we hear about talks, reopening Hormuz, I think we’re all exhausted by now.
Real or not, we rolled over, crude into a downtrend, gasoline and coal right behind it. What is interesting, equities are holding, I think many finally realize that regardless of the outcome, we’ll need to restock, and it’ll take years.
We’ve cut back the trading, it’s just too messy, but the core long-term energy equity positions stay on, and will be hedged if they start trending down.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
For once, bonds got their rally, tiny one that is. The ugly jobs number pulled yields down, mostly on the front end, 2-year finally flipped from a downtrend to sideways. I’d say let’s enjoy it while it lasts.
Because nothing structural moved. More deficits, more issuance, more supply, and a market that keeps front-running the easing that shows up whenever something breaks. One soft print doesn’t fix any of that. We still take no longs here, save the odd trade.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
The ags keep taking turns. This week the softs stepped back up, sugar and cocoa both into uptrends again. But he grains went the other way, wheat and soybeans complex, all rolling into short-term downtrends.
So the leadership rotates back to the softs, which is fine, that’s how these things breathe. The bigger picture hasn’t moved, the fertilizer and energy damage is done and El Niño is still out there. We stay long where the trends hold, lean back into the softs, and let the grains sort themselves out.
There is a crush spread trade to execute there, but it may really only resolve in 2027, will alert of course when we initiate a new position.
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
Hi Piotr and thank you for keeping us updated with succinct and informative weekly overviews/ reports.
I like the up to down analysis of your reports
On Substack, every Monday, Mike Sandifer publishes his weekly macroeconomic report. Maybe you'll find it interesting.
Thank you again and have a nice week ahead.