Markets Update – April 6, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“I don’t predict a non-existing future.” - Ed Seykota
There have been so many emotions in the markets lately, and so many predictions. Some are spitting out targets as if certainty was their trade: oil to plunge by year end, gold to 6,000, or to 3,000, S&P to 8,000, even 9,000, in the next 6 months or faster. Why not 10,000 while they are at it?
On the off chance that it happens, you become a legend, if only for a while. Worth it? For some, clearly yes. For me, it only tells you something about the person making the call. They are either craving attention, often tied to monetary self-interest, or they are simply wired differently.
To be fair, anything can happen, especially now when so much is unfolding around the world at once. But predictions presented as certainties are best left for a different profession.
What we can do is assign probabilities to outcomes and position ourselves to benefit while knowing very well that even with everything done right, we can still end up wrong.
Fundamental analysis, technical signals, flows, trader positioning, options dynamics, all of it is worth studying, all of it helps a lot. And still, markets can do anything in the short term, sometimes due to subjective sentiment shift, and sometimes due to unforeseen events.
What we can do is to establish a good system in place, with it, anxiety tends to disappear. And with time, envy disappears too. Once you can genuinely ignore those speaking in certainties, the ones with real wins and, more often, those with fictional ones, then you are truly where you are supposed to be.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty-one, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: downtrend ➝ sideways
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: downtrend ➝ sideways
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: negative ➝ neutral
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral
• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇
That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar
Week of April 6–10, 2026
All times ET (GMT−5)
ECONOMIC EVENTS
★★ Key events this week: FOMC Minutes (Wed) — first look inside the March meeting deliberations. US CPI (Fri) — March inflation print, first CPI since the NFP-on-Good-Friday surprise. Also: PCE (Thu), Germany CPI + Canada jobs (Fri). Note: Monday is Easter Monday — LSE, Hong Kong, TSX and most European exchanges closed.
Monday, April 6 — Easter Monday, reduced liquidity
LSE, Hong Kong, TSX, most European exchanges closed. US markets open.
10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI (Mar)
10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Services Prices (Mar)
10:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (Feb)
Tuesday, April 7
03:00 🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Feb)
Wednesday, April 8 ★ FOMC Minutes
02:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Wholesale Inventories (Feb)
10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Apr 3)
14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes (March meeting)
Thursday, April 9 ★ PCE
08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)
08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Apr 4)
10:30 🇺🇸 Natural Gas Storage Change
Friday, April 10 ★★ US CPI
01:30 🇨🇳 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)
02:00 🇩🇪 Germany CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final
07:30 🇨🇦 Canada Employment Change (Mar)
07:30 🇨🇦 Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM/YoY) (Mar)
08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM/YoY) (Mar)
10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (Apr)
10:00 🇺🇸 UoM Inflation Expectations (Apr)
EARNINGS
Format: Company Name
(EXCHANGE) – Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Q1 2026 earnings season begins. Big banks (JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley) report the following week Apr 13–17.
Monday, April 6
Easter Monday — LSE and TSX closed. No major earnings.
Tuesday, April 7
No major scheduled earnings.
Wednesday, April 8
• Delta Air Lines
(NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Airlines 🇺🇸
Thursday, April 9
No major scheduled earnings.
Friday, April 10
No major scheduled earnings.
Next week (Apr 13-17): JPMorgan
(Tue), Goldman Sachs
(Sun/Mon), Wells Fargo
, Morgan Stanley
, Bank of America
— major bank earnings season begins.
This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.
Great introduction Kacper. Are you looking into option positioning at all when you derive your short and mid term outlook btw.?
How do you label neutral by price and ema ? Please explain @cerlogic