Markets Update – April 13, 2026
Covering Equities, Forex, Metals, Energy, Treasuries, and Agriculture
“I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade. I normally move these stops in to lock in a profit as the trend continues.
Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn’t get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves.
Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.”
Ed Seykota - interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989
Another major headline just hit, and if markets flip right back from here, it wouldn’t surprise me at all. There’s always plenty of conviction out there about the next move, in either direction, often without objective support. That’s not my approach. When probabilities are unclear, I acknowledge it.
It has been a genuinely challenging environment lately, to put it mildly. And so, what I keep coming back to in times like these is the process. Not because it is perfect, it will not catch every bottom or sell every top, but because it will not make me hold through a drawdown, and it is the best one for me. And at a certain point, if you stay at this long enough, you will also find / develop the one that fits your own psychology.
With all of that said, and setting aside what is by definition unpredictable, let us look at something immediately practical from a trading perspective: controlling risk, especially when you are in the green.
Managing a winning trade is, in many ways, harder than managing a losing one. When a trade goes against you, the stop is hit. Never pleasant, but it is defined risk, and from a management standpoint it is clean. The hard part comes when you are deep in the green, and emotions start to creep into what could be a very clear process.
Two markets come to mind. We got on the right side of precious metals last year, and found ourselves in energy before the unfortunate events that followed. In both cases, at a certain point, price appreciation became quite violent. The P&L certainly felt good, but something more profound was happening beneath the surface. As the gains grew, so did the risk.
Sharp moves tend to come with elevated volatility. That means the potential reversal is not only larger in magnitude, it is happening on a position that has grown relative to your account. The same trade that started as 10-20% of your book may now be double. The swings that felt manageable at entry is now twice as violent. Nobody is built the same way, and for some, holding through that is natural. For others it is too much. Fortunately there is a solution to manage your emotions, and it’s as old as trading itself: trimming / taking some profits off the table.
But how much of the gains should we book? Well, where that line sits is personal. It has to be calibrated to your own psychology, not borrowed from someone else’s. We want to let winners run, that principle does not change. But ignoring the question of taking early profits entirely tends to produce one outcome: exiting at exactly the wrong moment, when the volatility finally becomes unbearable.
The way I have approached this is by anchoring my risk management to one number, as percentage risk relative to account size. Take a simplified version of the recent oil trade. We entered long at roughly 10% of the account, with a stop set so that if the position dropped to 9%, the trade was done, thesis invalidated, move on. Clean.
Then the opposite happened. Over a few months the position moved roughly 80% in our favour, turning that initial 10% into 18% of the book. Volatility rose alongside it, stops had to move, and the question became unavoidable: how far do you let the trade breathe / pull back without giving back most that you earned?
Oil moved over $100, and at that point, my risk had nearly quadrupled. A sharp reversal could have returned half the gains almost overnight. That is when I trim. Not too much, we still want to see where the trade will take us, but by resetting the effective risk to roughly 2% of the account, I can stay in the position for as long as the trade needs to play out, without the position size making that decision for me.
Everyone will find their own threshold eventually. Hopefully this small note helps you find yours a little sooner, and without giving up too much of the profits you earned along the way.
That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty-two, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with an updated summary table and signals across each market.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.
EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: sideways ➝ uptrend
• DAX – GERMANY: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: downtrend ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend
• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: sideways ➝ uptrend
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend
• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive
• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA
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FOREX
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: downtrend ➝ sideways
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: downtrend ➝ sideways
• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ uptrend
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: downtrend ➝ uptrend
• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend ➝ sideways
• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend ➝ sideways
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ sideways
• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend
• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: sideways ➝ uptrend
• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ uptrend
• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ uptrend
• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend
• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: neutral ➝ negative
• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: neutral ➝ positive
$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK
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INDUSTRIAL METALS
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways
• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways
• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COPPER – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral
$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG
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ENERGIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ downtrend
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL
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TREASURIES
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• NONE
$SHY $IEF $TLT
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AGRICULTURE
SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend
• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend
• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend
• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways
COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK
• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
• CORN – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative
$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE
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That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.
Stay safe out there!
Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com
Economic Events & Earnings Calendar
April 13–17, 2026
Monday, April 13
Economic Events
• Tentative 🇨🇳 China GDP Growth Rate Q1 2026
• Tentative 🇨🇳 China Industrial Production (March)
• Tentative 🇨🇳 China Retail Sales (March)
• Tentative 🇨🇳 China Fixed Asset Investment (March)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (March)
Earnings
• $GS (NYSE) Goldman Sachs – Financials / Investment Banking 🇺🇸
Tuesday, April 14
Economic Events
• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK Average Earnings & Unemployment Rate (February)
• 10:00 🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (April)
• 10:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment (April)
• 06:00 🇺🇸 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March)
• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change (Week ending Mar 28)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Producer Price Index / PPI (March)
Earnings
• $JPM (NYSE) JPMorgan Chase – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $C (NYSE) Citigroup – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $WFC (NYSE) Wells Fargo – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $BLK (NYSE) BlackRock – Financials / Asset Management 🇺🇸
• $JNJ (NYSE) Johnson & Johnson – Healthcare 🇺🇸
Wednesday, April 15
Economic Events
• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK CPI Inflation (March)
• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK PPI (March)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Export Price Index (March)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Import Price Index (March)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (March)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (April)
Earnings
• $ASML (NASDAQ / AMS) ASML Holding – Technology / Semiconductor Equipment 🇳🇱
• $BAC (NYSE) Bank of America – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $MS (NYSE) Morgan Stanley – Financials / Investment Banking 🇺🇸
• $PNC (NYSE) PNC Financial Services – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $PGR (NYSE) Progressive – Financials / Insurance 🇺🇸
• $MTB (NYSE) M&T Bank – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸
• $JBHT (NASDAQ) J.B. Hunt Transport Services – Industrials / Transportation 🇺🇸
Thursday, April 16
Economic Events
• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan Trade Balance (March)
• 02:30 🇦🇺 Australia Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (March)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Apr 11)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (March)
• 09:15 🇺🇸 Capacity Utilization (March)
Earnings
• $TSM (NYSE / TWSE) TSMC – Technology / Semiconductors 🇹🇼
• $NFLX (NASDAQ) Netflix – Communication Services / Streaming 🇺🇸
• $ABT (NYSE) Abbott Laboratories – Healthcare 🇺🇸
• $PEP (NASDAQ) PepsiCo – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸
• $SCHW (NYSE) Charles Schwab – Financials / Brokerage 🇺🇸
• $PLD (NYSE) Prologis – Real Estate / REITs 🇺🇸
• $BK (NYSE) BNY Mellon – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $USB (NYSE) U.S. Bancorp – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $TRV (NYSE) The Travelers Companies – Financials / Insurance 🇺🇸
• $MMC (NYSE) Marsh & McLennan – Financials / Insurance 🇺🇸
• $KEY (NYSE) KeyCorp – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸
• $CFG (NYSE) Citizens Financial Group – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸
Friday, April 17
Economic Events
• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales (March)
• 08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts & Building Permits (March)
• 10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary (April)
Earnings
• $STT (NYSE) State Street – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸
• $TFC (NYSE) Truist Financial – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸
• $FITB (NASDAQ) Fifth Third Bancorp – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸
• $RF (NYSE) Regions Financial – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸
