Richard Dennis

From his interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989

Straight to the markets this week. I usually begin with some practical, general thoughts on investing and trading, but I’ve decided those are better suited as standalone short articles I’ll publish from now on.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

Talking about expecting the extremes in this business, we just had one of the fastest and steepest recoveries in US markets in history. I wish I had leaned more to the long side, but everything looks easy in hindsight, and the news that forced this rally was pretty wild, to say the least.

The question is where we go from here. It sure seems like everyone is already in, so we may pause or correct, but I won’t be playing that. My system keeps me from shorting panics like we saw in March, and more importantly, it also never allows me to fight uptrends.

Still, while the US is making new all-time highs, the same can’t be said about other developed markets yet, something I’m watching right now. As for growth markets (I like that term better than the old “emerging” label), they’re doing well. Personally, I’m staying long Brazil. I entered after the April tariff crash last year and will hold as long as the trend is intact.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

One of my biggest surprises was that the dollar didn’t rip way higher on the oil spike. It tried to breach 100 on the

$DXY

during the hot Iran war phase, but then rejected.

It’s still correlated to oil, but the fiscal backdrop, the new Fed, and the shift toward short-end debt, the so-called Treasury QE, may be winning for now. In any case, narratives aside, we’ll follow the trends first.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend

• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend ➝ sideways

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: neutral ➝ positive

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The relative strength of industrial metals over precious metals continues. The energy crisis will have a significant impact on future supply.

As for demand, much will depend on the government’s reaction. Governments are now driving economies to a greater extent than in the last three decades.

You know what I expect: more debt, more spending, and a push toward industrial buildout. We’re long, but as always, the markets will tell us when the moves are exhausted and it’s time to get out.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE 62% – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

No secret, it’s all about the Iran war now. Every day oil & gas flows from the region are impacted, and the longer it drags on, the more time it will take to recover production. For now we’re running on reserves, but if they run out we’ll enter an entirely new phase where serious rationing spreads to the developed economies as well.

As for me, I’m long $COAL. It just might be a silent winner in this whole situation. Energy should always be a strategic priority, but it wasn’t. That’s changing right now. I’m also watching natural gas for a long entry. It may take some time, but let’s remember: it’s usually a good idea to buy cheap when the trend is changing.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Energy up, yields up, bonds down. It’s as simple as that for now. It doesn’t have to be this way, but the markets are anticipating the obvious government reaction, which is almost always more debt and more money creation leading to inflation. I stay away from any longs here.

What’s interesting is Japan. Their 10-year yields have just reached 2.5 percent, up almost 1 percent in the last six months. That’s a level much higher than before the GFC, and it sure seems like they’ve given up on capping them at any particular level. I’m also watching UK yields. They’re breaking out too and may put pressure on the country’s fiscal situation. But really, you can find a similar situation in many other developed economies.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

One of the most interesting places to be right now. The impact of the energy and fertilizer crisis is just beginning to show up in the prices. Let’s hope the conflict ends soon, but even in the case of peace tomorrow the damage is already done.

I’m long, with a core position in $DBA, and I trade individual agricultural commodities as well. We’ve already been doing quite well in wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, and soybean oil. As for specific new setups I’m seeing right now, they are rice, sugar, and orange juice.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

This wraps up update number eighty-five, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with updated trend tables, signals, and highlights for the week.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 4–8, 2026

Monday, May 4

Economic Events

• 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 China & Japan markets closed – Labor Day / Greenery Day

• 🇬🇧 UK markets closed – Early May Bank Holiday

• 09:15 🇪🇸 Spain Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 09:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 09:45 🇮🇹 Italy Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 09:50 🇫🇷 France Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 09:55 🇩🇪 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 10:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders MoM (Mar)

Earnings – Energy

• $FANG (NASDAQ) Diamondback Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $CTRA (NASDAQ) Coterra Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $CQP (NYSE) Cheniere Partners – Energy / LNG Infrastructure 🇺🇸

• $WMB (NYSE) Williams Companies – Energy / Natural Gas Midstream 🇺🇸

• $RIG (NYSE) Transocean – Energy / Offshore Drilling 🇺🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $GMEXICOB (BMV) Grupo Mexico – Materials / Copper, Silver & Zinc Mining 🇲🇽

• $LYC (ASX) Lynas Rare Earths – Materials / Rare Earth Mining & Processing 🇦🇺

• $NXE (NYSE / TSX) NexGen Energy – Energy / Uranium Development 🇨🇦

• $ERO (NYSE / TSX) Ero Copper – Materials / Copper & Gold Mining 🇨🇦

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $TSN (NYSE) Tyson Foods – Consumer Staples / Protein Processing 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $PLTR (NYSE) Palantir Technologies – Technology / AI & Data 🇺🇸

• $NAB (ASX) National Australia Bank – Financials / Banking 🇦🇺

Tuesday, May 5

Economic Events

• 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 China, Japan & South Korea markets closed

• 06:30 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement – cut to 3.85% expected

• 08:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland CPI MoM (Apr)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Trade Balance (Mar)

• 14:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US Trade Balance (Mar)

• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (Apr)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Mar)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

Earnings – Energy

• $SU (NYSE / TSX) Suncor Energy – Energy / Integrated Oil Sands 🇨🇦

• $EOG (NYSE) EOG Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $DVN (NYSE) Devon Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $OXY (NYSE) Occidental Petroleum – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $MPC (NYSE) Marathon Petroleum – Energy / Refining 🇺🇸

• $MPLX (NYSE) MPLX – Energy / Midstream 🇺🇸

• $CRC (NYSE) California Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $CRK (NYSE) Comstock Resources – Energy / Natural Gas E&P 🇺🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $PAAS (NYSE / TSX) Pan American Silver – Materials / Gold & Silver Mining 🇨🇦

• $HL (NYSE) Hecla Mining – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇺🇸

• $SSRM (NASDAQ / TSX) SSR Mining – Materials / Gold & Silver Mining 🇨🇦

• $IMG (NYSE / TSX) IAMGold – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦

• $CCO (NYSE / TSX) Cameco – Energy / Uranium Mining 🇨🇦

• $BTU (NYSE) Peabody Energy – Energy / Thermal & Metallurgical Coal 🇺🇸

• $TATA (BSE) Tata Steel – Materials / Integrated Steel 🇮🇳

Earnings – Agriculture & Commodities

• $CTVA (NYSE) Corteva – Materials / Crop Protection & Seeds 🇺🇸

• $ADM (NYSE) Archer-Daniels-Midland – Consumer Staples / Grain & Commodity Processing 🇺🇸

• $AGCO (NYSE) AGCO Corporation – Industrials / Agricultural Equipment 🇺🇸

• $ANDE (NASDAQ) The Andersons – Materials / Grain Trading & Fertilizers 🇺🇸

• $FDP (NYSE) Fresh Del Monte Produce – Consumer Staples / Fresh Produce 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $HSBA (NYSE / LSE) HSBC Holdings – Financials / Banking 🇬🇧

• $AMD (NASDAQ) Advanced Micro Devices – Technology / Semiconductors & AI 🇺🇸

• $SHOP (NYSE / TSX) Shopify – Technology / E-Commerce 🇨🇦

• $PFE (NYSE) Pfizer – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸

• $KKR (NYSE) KKR – Financials / Alternative Asset Management 🇺🇸

• $CMI (NYSE) Cummins – Industrials / Engines & Power 🇺🇸

Wednesday, May 6

Economic Events

• 🇯🇵 Japan markets closed – Constitution Day

• 03:45 🇨🇳 China Caixin Services PMI (Apr)

• 09:15–10:30 🇪🇺 / 🇬🇧 Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain & UK Services & Composite PMI (Apr)

• 14:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)

• 16:00 🇨🇦 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr)

• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

• 19:21 🇵🇱 Poland Interest Rate Decision

Earnings – Energy

• $TOU (TSX) Tourmaline Oil – Energy / Natural Gas E&P 🇨🇦

• $APA (NASDAQ) APA Corporation – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $MTDR (NASDAQ) Matador Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $MUR (NYSE) Murphy Oil – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $SM (NYSE) SM Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $HP (NYSE) Helmerich & Payne – Energy / Contract Drilling 🇺🇸

• $VET (NYSE / TSX) Vermilion Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $IVN (TSX) Ivanhoe Mines – Materials / Copper, Zinc & Platinum Group Mining 🇨🇦

• $RGLD (NASDAQ) Royal Gold – Materials / Gold Royalty & Streaming 🇺🇸

• $BTO (NYSE / TSX) B2Gold – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦

• $TXG (TSX) Torex Gold Resources – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦

• $TKO (TSX / LSE) Taseko Mines – Materials / Copper Mining 🇨🇦

• $ALB (NYSE) Albemarle – Materials / Lithium & Specialty Chemicals 🇺🇸

• $LUN (TSX / Nasdaq Stockholm) Lundin Mining – Materials / Copper, Zinc & Gold 🇨🇦

• $CDE (NYSE) Coeur Mining – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇺🇸

• $FSM (NYSE / TSX) Fortuna Mining – Materials / Gold & Silver Mining 🇨🇦

Earnings – Agriculture & Fertilizers

• $NTR (NYSE / TSX) Nutrien – Materials / Potash & Nitrogen Fertilizers 🇨🇦

• $CF (NYSE) CF Industries – Materials / Nitrogen Fertilizers 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $DIS (NYSE) Walt Disney – Communication Services / Media & Streaming 🇺🇸

• $UBER (NYSE) Uber Technologies – Technology / Mobility & Delivery 🇺🇸

• $UCG (Euronext Milan) UniCredit – Financials / Banking 🇮🇹

• $SNAP (NYSE) Snap – Communication Services / Social Media 🇺🇸

Thursday, May 7

Economic Events

• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia Trade Balance (Mar)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders MoM (Mar)

• 09:30 🇸🇪 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision

• 10:00 🇳🇴 Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision

• 10:30 🇬🇧 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 2)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q1)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs QoQ (Q1)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

• 21:00 🇲🇽 Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Earnings – Energy

• $RDSA (NYSE / AMS) Shell – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇳🇱

• $CNQ (NYSE / TSX) Canadian Natural Resources – Energy / Oil Sands & Natural Gas 🇨🇦

• $BTE (NYSE / TSX) Baytex Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦

• $TRGP (NYSE) Targa Resources – Energy / Natural Gas Midstream 🇺🇸

• $LNG (NYSE) Cheniere Energy – Energy / LNG Export 🇺🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $WPM (NYSE / TSX) Wheaton Precious Metals – Materials / Precious Metals Streaming 🇨🇦

• $GFI (NYSE / JSE) Gold Fields – Materials / Gold Mining 🇿🇦

Earnings – Other

• $MCD (NYSE) McDonald’s – Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants 🇺🇸

• $GILD (NASDAQ) Gilead Sciences – Healthcare / Biotech 🇺🇸

• $MNST (NASDAQ) Monster Beverage – Consumer Staples / Beverages 🇺🇸

• $ABNB (NASDAQ) Airbnb – Consumer Discretionary / Travel 🇺🇸

• $COIN (NASDAQ) Coinbase Global – Financials / Crypto Exchange 🇺🇸

• $RHM (Xetra) Rheinmetall – Industrials / Defence & Armaments 🇩🇪

Friday, May 8

Economic Events

• 02:30 🇯🇵 Japan S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Trade Balance (Mar)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production MoM (Mar)

• 09:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 14:20 🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speaks

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Participation Rate (Apr)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Unemployment Rate & Employment Change (Apr)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Expectations & Inflation Expectations (May)

• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Earnings – Energy

• $ENB (NYSE / TSX) Enbridge – Energy / Pipelines & Energy Infrastructure 🇨🇦

• $YPF (NYSE / BYMA) YPF – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇦🇷

• $PAA (NASDAQ) Plains All American Pipeline – Energy / Crude Oil Midstream 🇺🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $ANG (NYSE / JSE) AngloGold Ashanti – Materials / Gold Mining 🇿🇦

Earnings – Other

• $ISP (Euronext Milan) Intesa Sanpaolo – Financials / Banking 🇮🇹

• $ENB (NYSE / TSX) Enbridge – Energy / Pipelines 🇨🇦

• $7974 (TSE) Nintendo – Technology / Gaming 🇯🇵

• $9432 (TSE) Nippon Telegraph & Telephone – Communication Services / Telecom 🇯🇵

• $2914 (TSE) Japan Tobacco – Consumer Staples / Tobacco 🇯🇵

• $CBK (Xetra) Commerzbank – Financials / Banking 🇩🇪

• $IAG (LSE / BME) International Airlines Group – Industrials / Airlines 🇪🇸

That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

Ed Seykota

His interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989

This week I want to talk about the feelings we carry when holding a position, and perhaps even more so, the ones we carry when we hold nothing at all. There is the shift that happens the moment we buy or sell. It is really quite profound when you think about it.

We tend to get bearish on rallies we did not participate in, or we stay bullish simply because we own something, even as it heads lower. The position itself changes how we see the market. These are well-known traps, but knowing about them does not make it is easier to avoid them.

So, how do we stay objective?

Having a systems helps, but even the most disciplined ones do not remove emotions from the equation, even the best ones are ultimately discretionary at some level. After all, we choose where to participate, when to step back and look for other opportunities.

Some people suggest removing emotions from investing and trading, entirely. I do not think that is possible, and I am not sure it would help if it were. What Seykota would say is something more useful: experience these feelings, understand them. That is what stops you from acting on them.

There is a story about Druckenmiller worth remembering here. One of the most celebrated macro allocators of his generation, someone who had seen every cycle. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, the pain of not participating became too much. He bought in at the top, and what followed was a loss measured in hundreds of millions. When asked what he learned, his answer was simple: nothing. He said he had known all along that he should not have done it.

That is the honest version of what these feelings can do. It is not a story about not knowing. It is a story about knowing and doing it anyway, because the feeling was louder than the process.

It really helps to experience and not to suppress emotions, not to deny them and act like they don’t bother you. Name what you are feeling plainly, write it down. Once you can see it clearly, the right thing to do tends to become obvious. The feeling does not go away, but it loses its grip on the decision.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty-four, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with updated trend tables, signals, and highlights for the week.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend ➝ sideways

• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways ➝ uptrend

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral ➝ positive

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• CORN – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – April 27 – May 2, 2026

Monday, April 27

Economic Events

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (March) – Final

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (March)

• 10:30 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

• All Day 🇯🇵 Japan Retail Sales (March)

• FOMC meeting begins (two-day, decision Tuesday)

Earnings

• $VZ (NYSE) Verizon Communications – Communication Services / Telecom 🇺🇸

• $WM (NYSE) Waste Management – Industrials / Environmental Services 🇺🇸

Tuesday, April 28

Economic Events

• 08:30 🇨🇦 Canada GDP (February)

• 09:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP Flash Estimate Q1 2026

• 09:00 🇩🇪 Germany GDP Flash Estimate Q1 2026

• 09:00 🇫🇷 France GDP Flash Estimate Q1 2026

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Consumer Confidence (April) – Conference Board

• 10:00 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings (March)

• 14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Rate Decision & Statement – Press conference 14:30 ET

Earnings

• $KO (NYSE) Coca-Cola – Consumer Staples / Beverages 🇺🇸

• $V (NYSE) Visa – Financials / Payments 🇺🇸

• $GM (NYSE) General Motors – Consumer Discretionary / Autos 🇺🇸

• $UPS (NYSE) United Parcel Service – Industrials / Logistics 🇺🇸

• $SBUX (NASDAQ) Starbucks – Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants 🇺🇸

• $BP (NYSE / LSE) BP – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇬🇧

• $SNY (NASDAQ) Sanofi – Healthcare / Pharma 🇫🇷

• $PFE (NYSE) Pfizer – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸

Wednesday, April 29

Economic Events

• 08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (March) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Employment Cost Index Q1 2026

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Personal Income & Spending (March)

• 09:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (April)

• All Day 🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production (March)

Earnings – Big Tech

• $META (NASDAQ) Meta Platforms – Communication Services / Social Media & AI 🇺🇸

• $MSFT (NASDAQ) Microsoft – Technology / Cloud & AI 🇺🇸

• $GOOGL (NASDAQ) Alphabet / Google – Communication Services / Search & AI 🇺🇸

• $AMZN (NASDAQ) Amazon – Technology / Cloud, E-Commerce & AI 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $CAT (NYSE) Caterpillar – Industrials / Mining & Construction Equipment 🇺🇸

• $MA (NYSE) Mastercard – Financials / Payments 🇺🇸

• $QCOM (NASDAQ) Qualcomm – Technology / Semiconductors 🇺🇸

• $ADP (NASDAQ) Automatic Data Processing – Technology / HR Software 🇺🇸

• $ALB (NYSE) Albemarle – Materials / Lithium & Specialty Chemicals 🇺🇸

• $MOS (NYSE) The Mosaic Company – Materials / Fertilizers & Phosphate 🇺🇸

Thursday, April 30 – May Day Eve

Economic Events

• All Day 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 Many European markets closed for May Day holiday

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Apr 25)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (March)

Earnings – Energy

• $XOM (NYSE) ExxonMobil – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇺🇸

• $COP (NYSE) ConocoPhillips – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $EOG (NYSE) EOG Resources – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $OXY (NYSE) Occidental Petroleum – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $AAPL (NASDAQ) Apple – Technology / Consumer Electronics & AI 🇺🇸

• $LLY (NYSE) Eli Lilly – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸

• $AMGN (NASDAQ) Amgen – Healthcare / Biotech 🇺🇸

• $MCD (NYSE) McDonald’s – Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants 🇺🇸

• $NTR (NYSE / TSX) Nutrien – Materials / Fertilizers & Potash 🇨🇦

Friday, May 1

Economic Events

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (April) – most watched labour market release

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (April)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (April)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI (April)

• 01:30 🇯🇵 Japan Unemployment Rate (March)

Earnings – Energy & Materials

• $CVX (NYSE) Chevron – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇺🇸

• $SHEL (NYSE / LSE) Shell – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇬🇧

• $SLB (NYSE) SLB (Schlumberger) – Energy / Oilfield Services 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $ABBV (NYSE) AbbVie – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸

• $AON (NYSE) Aon – Financials / Insurance & Risk 🇬🇧

That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

Ed Seykota

His interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989

Reads almost like a riddle, right?

May seem like it on the surface, but spend enough time in the markets and it stops being abstract very quickly. Let’s try to break it down and talk this week about feelings when trading the markets. It’s important, as they can be the source of very bad decisions and losses, in both investing and trading alike.

The obvious emotions we all understand. Winning feels good. Losing hurts. That part needs no explanation.

What I want to focus on are the less obvious ones, the ones that actually do the most damage. And it’s quite likely that you’ll experience all of these if you stay in the markets long enough.

So, let’s start with the pain of winning. Yes, it is very real and largely unspoken. It’s that feeling when you trim a trade early and the market runs without you, or even though you know you hold the right position, you exit it at the first sign of volatility, watching the rest of the move from the sidelines. You were right on the idea, you made money, and still managed to feel terrible about it.

Or perhaps worse, you hold a position that moves in your favour and spend the entire time anxious, watching every tick, unable to enjoy any of it because you are convinced it is about to reverse. Winning, and suffering through it. It almost feels cathartic when the move is over and you can finally close the position.

Then there is the joy of losing, which sounds strange until you have experienced it. A position finally gets stopped out after weeks of sitting against you, and what you feel is not disappointment but relief. The uncertainty is over. The decision has been made for you. There is something deeply human in that. And until that exit happens, the incentive to let it run quietly builds, unnoticed, until the damage is done, and then it disappears almost immediately the moment you sell.

There are also the not-participating emotions, perhaps the most underestimated of all. The joy of sitting out during chaos, watching markets move violently from the safety of cash, feeling vindicated and calm.

And then there is the opposite: the pain of watching a market run hard while you hold nothing, nothing other than fear of missing out. That particular discomfort has cost more money than most actual losing trades, because it generates the worst entries, the ones taken out of impatience, sized to compensate emotionally for everything you missed.

Seykota is right, as he tends to be about most things in this game. But notice he does not stress the need to be fully consumed by it, to neglect your work, your business, or your family to invest and trade in the right way. It is simply about taking it seriously, to commit when you’re at it, and not treat it as something casual where feelings drive most of the decisions.

This is precisely where the process becomes indispensable. It is good to have a structure that stands between you and your own emotional reactions. When the entry criteria are defined in advance, you do not have to decide in the moment whether fear is valid. When the stop is set before the trade is opened, the pain of losing is largely already accounted for and the decision to exit is not made under pressure. When position sizing is determined by risk parameters rather than conviction, the anxiety of holding a winner is contained within bounds you chose when you were thinking clearly.

The people who do it truly well are not without feelings. They experience every one of the emotions described here. What separates them is the process. It is what makes it possible to observe these feelings and still - not being governed by them, to feel the pain of missing a move and still wait for the right setup, to feel the relief of a stopped-out trade and still follow the system the next time. This week in the markets has been a good reminder of why that matters.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty-three, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with updated trend tables, signals, and highlights for the week.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• DAX – GERMANY: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways ➝ uptrend

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend

• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ uptrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ sideways

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ sideways

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: neutral ➝ positive

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: neutral ➝ positive

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: negative ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

• IRON ORE 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways ➝ uptrend

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

intel.cerlogic.com

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar

April 20–25, 2026

Monday, April 20

Economic Events

• 02:15 🇨🇳 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y Decision

• All Day 🇸🇪 Sweden Riksbank Meeting Minutes

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Leading Economic Index (March)

Earnings

• $TSLA (NASDAQ) Tesla – Consumer Discretionary / EVs & Energy 🇺🇸

• $SAP (NYSE / FWB) SAP – Technology / Enterprise Software 🇩🇪

Tuesday, April 21

Economic Events

• All Day 🇯🇵 Japan BoJ Core CPI (March)

• 09:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

Earnings

• $GE (NYSE) GE Aerospace – Industrials / Aerospace & Defence 🇺🇸

• $VZ (NYSE) Verizon Communications – Communication Services / Telecom 🇺🇸

• $LMT (NYSE) Lockheed Martin – Industrials / Defence 🇺🇸

• $RTX (NYSE) RTX Corporation – Industrials / Defence & Aerospace 🇺🇸

• $NOC (NYSE) Northrop Grumman – Industrials / Defence 🇺🇸

• $HAL (NYSE) Halliburton – Energy / Oilfield Services 🇺🇸

• $BKR (NASDAQ) Baker Hughes – Energy / Oilfield Services 🇺🇸

• $ISRG (NASDAQ) Intuitive Surgical – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇺🇸

• $KMB (NYSE) Kimberly-Clark – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸

• $COF (NYSE) Capital One Financial – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $MMM (NYSE) 3M – Industrials / Diversified Manufacturing 🇺🇸

Wednesday, April 22

Economic Events

• Tentative 🇯🇵 Japan Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (April)

• 08:15 🇪🇺 / 🇬🇧 / 🇩🇪 Euro Area, UK & Germany Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (April)

• 09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (April)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (March)

Earnings

• $T (NYSE) AT&T – Communication Services / Telecom 🇺🇸

• $BA (NYSE) Boeing – Industrials / Aerospace & Defence 🇺🇸

• $IBM (NYSE) IBM – Technology / IT Services & Cloud 🇺🇸

• $PM (NYSE) Philip Morris International – Consumer Staples / Tobacco 🇺🇸

• $GD (NYSE) General Dynamics – Industrials / Defence 🇺🇸

• $NEE (NYSE) NextEra Energy – Utilities / Renewables 🇺🇸

• $CMG (NYSE) Chipotle Mexican Grill – Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants 🇺🇸

• $NOW (NYSE) ServiceNow – Technology / Cloud Software 🇺🇸

Thursday, April 23

Economic Events

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (April)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Apr 18)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (March)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (March)

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $NEM (NYSE / ASX) Newmont Corporation – Materials / Gold Mining 🇺🇸

• $FCX (NYSE) Freeport-McMoRan – Materials / Copper & Gold Mining 🇺🇸

• $AEM (NYSE / TSX) Agnico Eagle Mines – Materials / Gold Mining 🇨🇦

• $B (NYSE / TSX) Barrick Mining Corporation – Materials / Gold & Copper Mining 🇨🇦

• $WPM (NYSE / TSX) Wheaton Precious Metals – Materials / Streaming 🇨🇦

• $CCJ (NYSE / TSX) Cameco Corporation – Energy / Uranium 🇨🇦

Earnings – Energy

• $OXY (NYSE) Occidental Petroleum – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $DVN (NYSE) Devon Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

• $FANG (NASDAQ) Diamondback Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $GOOGL (NASDAQ) Alphabet / Google – Communication Services / Tech 🇺🇸

• $PG (NYSE) Procter & Gamble – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸

• $MRK (NYSE) Merck & Co – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸

• $INTC (NASDAQ) Intel – Technology / Semiconductors 🇺🇸

• $CMCSA (NASDAQ) Comcast – Communication Services / Media 🇺🇸

• $AAL (NASDAQ) American Airlines – Industrials / Airlines 🇺🇸

• $TMUS (NASDAQ) T-Mobile US – Communication Services / Telecom 🇺🇸

• $LHX (NYSE) L3Harris Technologies – Industrials / Defence 🇺🇸

• $SNY (NASDAQ) Sanofi – Healthcare / Pharma 🇫🇷

Friday, April 24 / Saturday, April 25

Economic Events

• 01:30 🇯🇵 Japan CPI (March)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 US GDP Advance Estimate Q1 2026

• 08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (March)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (April)

• Tentative 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Policy Decision & Statement

Earnings

• $ABBV (NYSE) AbbVie – Healthcare / Pharma 🇺🇸

• $CL (NYSE) Colgate-Palmolive – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸

• $SLB (NYSE) SLB (Schlumberger) – Energy / Oilfield Services 🇺🇸

That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn’t get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves.

Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.”

Ed Seykota - interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989

Another major headline just hit, and if markets flip right back from here, it wouldn’t surprise me at all. There’s always plenty of conviction out there about the next move, in either direction, often without objective support. That’s not my approach. When probabilities are unclear, I acknowledge it.

It has been a genuinely challenging environment lately, to put it mildly. And so, what I keep coming back to in times like these is the process. Not because it is perfect, it will not catch every bottom or sell every top, but because it will not make me hold through a drawdown, and it is the best one for me. And at a certain point, if you stay at this long enough, you will also find / develop the one that fits your own psychology.

With all of that said, and setting aside what is by definition unpredictable, let us look at something immediately practical from a trading perspective: controlling risk, especially when you are in the green.

Managing a winning trade is, in many ways, harder than managing a losing one. When a trade goes against you, the stop is hit. Never pleasant, but it is defined risk, and from a management standpoint it is clean. The hard part comes when you are deep in the green, and emotions start to creep into what could be a very clear process.

Two markets come to mind. We got on the right side of precious metals last year, and found ourselves in energy before the unfortunate events that followed. In both cases, at a certain point, price appreciation became quite violent. The P&L certainly felt good, but something more profound was happening beneath the surface. As the gains grew, so did the risk.

Sharp moves tend to come with elevated volatility. That means the potential reversal is not only larger in magnitude, it is happening on a position that has grown relative to your account. The same trade that started as 10-20% of your book may now be double. The swings that felt manageable at entry is now twice as violent. Nobody is built the same way, and for some, holding through that is natural. For others it is too much. Fortunately there is a solution to manage your emotions, and it’s as old as trading itself: trimming / taking some profits off the table.

But how much of the gains should we book? Well, where that line sits is personal. It has to be calibrated to your own psychology, not borrowed from someone else’s. We want to let winners run, that principle does not change. But ignoring the question of taking early profits entirely tends to produce one outcome: exiting at exactly the wrong moment, when the volatility finally becomes unbearable.

The way I have approached this is by anchoring my risk management to one number, as percentage risk relative to account size. Take a simplified version of the recent oil trade. We entered long at roughly 10% of the account, with a stop set so that if the position dropped to 9%, the trade was done, thesis invalidated, move on. Clean.

Then the opposite happened. Over a few months the position moved roughly 80% in our favour, turning that initial 10% into 18% of the book. Volatility rose alongside it, stops had to move, and the question became unavoidable: how far do you let the trade breathe / pull back without giving back most that you earned?

Oil moved over $100, and at that point, my risk had nearly quadrupled. A sharp reversal could have returned half the gains almost overnight. That is when I trim. Not too much, we still want to see where the trade will take us, but by resetting the effective risk to roughly 2% of the account, I can stay in the position for as long as the trade needs to play out, without the position size making that decision for me.

Everyone will find their own threshold eventually. Hopefully this small note helps you find yours a little sooner, and without giving up too much of the profits you earned along the way.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty-two, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with an updated summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: sideways ➝ uptrend

• DAX – GERMANY: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: downtrend ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: sideways ➝ uptrend

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: downtrend ➝ sideways

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ uptrend

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• AU/USD – GOLD: downtrend ➝ sideways

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ uptrend

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend ➝ sideways

• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend ➝ sideways

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ sideways

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ uptrend

• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: neutral ➝ negative

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: neutral ➝ positive

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• CORN – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar

April 13–17, 2026

Monday, April 13

Economic Events

• Tentative 🇨🇳 China GDP Growth Rate Q1 2026

• Tentative 🇨🇳 China Industrial Production (March)

• Tentative 🇨🇳 China Retail Sales (March)

• Tentative 🇨🇳 China Fixed Asset Investment (March)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (March)

Earnings

• $GS (NYSE) Goldman Sachs – Financials / Investment Banking 🇺🇸

Tuesday, April 14

Economic Events

• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK Average Earnings & Unemployment Rate (February)

• 10:00 🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (April)

• 10:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment (April)

• 06:00 🇺🇸 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March)

• 08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change (Week ending Mar 28)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Producer Price Index / PPI (March)

Earnings

• $JPM (NYSE) JPMorgan Chase – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $C (NYSE) Citigroup – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $WFC (NYSE) Wells Fargo – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $BLK (NYSE) BlackRock – Financials / Asset Management 🇺🇸

• $JNJ (NYSE) Johnson & Johnson – Healthcare 🇺🇸

Wednesday, April 15

Economic Events

• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK CPI Inflation (March)

• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK PPI (March)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Export Price Index (March)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Import Price Index (March)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (March)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (April)

Earnings

• $ASML (NASDAQ / AMS) ASML Holding – Technology / Semiconductor Equipment 🇳🇱

• $BAC (NYSE) Bank of America – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $MS (NYSE) Morgan Stanley – Financials / Investment Banking 🇺🇸

• $PNC (NYSE) PNC Financial Services – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $PGR (NYSE) Progressive – Financials / Insurance 🇺🇸

• $MTB (NYSE) M&T Bank – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸

• $JBHT (NASDAQ) J.B. Hunt Transport Services – Industrials / Transportation 🇺🇸

Thursday, April 16

Economic Events

• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan Trade Balance (March)

• 02:30 🇦🇺 Australia Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (March)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Apr 11)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

• 09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (March)

• 09:15 🇺🇸 Capacity Utilization (March)

Earnings

• $TSM (NYSE / TWSE) TSMC – Technology / Semiconductors 🇹🇼

• $NFLX (NASDAQ) Netflix – Communication Services / Streaming 🇺🇸

• $ABT (NYSE) Abbott Laboratories – Healthcare 🇺🇸

• $PEP (NASDAQ) PepsiCo – Consumer Staples 🇺🇸

• $SCHW (NYSE) Charles Schwab – Financials / Brokerage 🇺🇸

• $PLD (NYSE) Prologis – Real Estate / REITs 🇺🇸

• $BK (NYSE) BNY Mellon – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $USB (NYSE) U.S. Bancorp – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $TRV (NYSE) The Travelers Companies – Financials / Insurance 🇺🇸

• $MMC (NYSE) Marsh & McLennan – Financials / Insurance 🇺🇸

• $KEY (NYSE) KeyCorp – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸

• $CFG (NYSE) Citizens Financial Group – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸

Friday, April 17

Economic Events

• 07:00 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales (March)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts & Building Permits (March)

• 10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary (April)

Earnings

• $STT (NYSE) State Street – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $TFC (NYSE) Truist Financial – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸

• $FITB (NASDAQ) Fifth Third Bancorp – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸

• $RF (NYSE) Regions Financial – Financials / Regional Banking 🇺🇸

There have been so many emotions in the markets lately, and so many predictions. Some are spitting out targets as if certainty was their trade: oil to plunge by year end, gold to 6,000, or to 3,000, S&P to 8,000, even 9,000, in the next 6 months or faster. Why not 10,000 while they are at it?

On the off chance that it happens, you become a legend, if only for a while. Worth it? For some, clearly yes. For me, it only tells you something about the person making the call. They are either craving attention, often tied to monetary self-interest, or they are simply wired differently.

To be fair, anything can happen, especially now when so much is unfolding around the world at once. But predictions presented as certainties are best left for a different profession.

What we can do is assign probabilities to outcomes and position ourselves to benefit while knowing very well that even with everything done right, we can still end up wrong.

Fundamental analysis, technical signals, flows, trader positioning, options dynamics, all of it is worth studying, all of it helps a lot. And still, markets can do anything in the short term, sometimes due to subjective sentiment shift, and sometimes due to unforeseen events.

What we can do is to establish a good system in place, with it, anxiety tends to disappear. And with time, envy disappears too. Once you can genuinely ignore those speaking in certainties, the ones with real wins and, more often, those with fictional ones, then you are truly where you are supposed to be.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty-one, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: downtrend ➝ sideways

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: downtrend ➝ sideways

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: negative ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar

Week of April 6–10, 2026

All times ET (GMT−5)

ECONOMIC EVENTS

★★ Key events this week: FOMC Minutes (Wed) — first look inside the March meeting deliberations. US CPI (Fri) — March inflation print, first CPI since the NFP-on-Good-Friday surprise. Also: PCE (Thu), Germany CPI + Canada jobs (Fri). Note: Monday is Easter Monday — LSE, Hong Kong, TSX and most European exchanges closed.

Monday, April 6 — Easter Monday, reduced liquidity

LSE, Hong Kong, TSX, most European exchanges closed. US markets open.

10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI (Mar)

10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Services Prices (Mar)

10:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (Feb)

Tuesday, April 7

03:00 🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Feb)

Wednesday, April 8 ★ FOMC Minutes

02:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Wholesale Inventories (Feb)

10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Apr 3)

14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes (March meeting)

Thursday, April 9 ★ PCE

08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Apr 4)

10:30 🇺🇸 Natural Gas Storage Change

Friday, April 10 ★★ US CPI

01:30 🇨🇳 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)

02:00 🇩🇪 Germany CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

07:30 🇨🇦 Canada Employment Change (Mar)

07:30 🇨🇦 Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM/YoY) (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM/YoY) (Mar)

10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (Apr)

10:00 🇺🇸 UoM Inflation Expectations (Apr)

EARNINGS

Format: Company Name

$TICKER

(EXCHANGE) – Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Q1 2026 earnings season begins. Big banks (JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley) report the following week Apr 13–17.

Monday, April 6

Easter Monday — LSE and TSX closed. No major earnings.

Tuesday, April 7

No major scheduled earnings.

Wednesday, April 8

• Delta Air Lines

$DAL

(NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Airlines 🇺🇸

Thursday, April 9

No major scheduled earnings.

Friday, April 10

No major scheduled earnings.

Next week (Apr 13-17): JPMorgan

$JPM

(Tue), Goldman Sachs

$GS

(Sun/Mon), Wells Fargo

$WFC

, Morgan Stanley

$MS

, Bank of America

$BAC

— major bank earnings season begins.

This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.

If I had it to do over again, I would reverse the process completely. I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.”

Tom Basso, known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s The New Market Wizards, 1992

There are plenty of good investing and trading systems out there. Most would get you on the right side of recent events, most would keep you from crashes and make you money.

There are plenty of good services, good frameworks, good risk management rules. Most of them work, but here is the thing, none of them is particularly better than the others.

The question is never really whether the system works. The only question is whether it works for you.

Because here is what happens: even the best system becomes extremely hard to follow when your psychology is not in the right place.

You second-guess every signal. You override the rules at exactly the wrong moment. And even if you somehow manage to stay disciplined, the system may simply not fit who you are. The volatility is too large and you cannot sleep. Or too small and you lose interest. The time it demands is not time you have. You are checking charts every five minutes, stressed, exhausted, running on cortisol instead of conviction. You might even make some money. But then you ask yourself, is it really worth it?

Some people love spending eight to twelve hours behind a screen, making ten to twenty trades a day, constantly trimming and adding, fully alive in that environment. Most people do not. And neither group is wrong. They are just different.

It may sound obvious, almost too simple to say, but you have to discover what kind of person you are before you can find a system that genuinely fits you.

That is what separates the ten percent of investors and the two or three percent of traders who consistently make money over time from everyone else. Not a better system. A better match between the system and the person using it.

I personally like to invest in a way where I do not need to touch a position for months. And I like to trade in a way where I can check my alerts once a day and make an adjustment if needed, ideally none, until the thesis plays out. I love to travel. That is the only way I can do any of this. Another approach would break me, no matter how good it looked on paper.

If I could leave you with one thought, it would be this: go and read. Books are the best return on your money that exists. You will find fundamental investors and traders who are pure technicians, investors who hold for years and traders who are out by end of day. The only question is which one is you. Go and find out, my friends.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number eighty, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

intel.cerlogic.com

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar

Week of March 30 – April 3, 2026

All times ET (GMT−5)

ECONOMIC EVENTS

★★ Key event: NFP (Fri, Apr 3) - March jobs report releases at 08:30 ET as scheduled, but US stock markets are CLOSED for Good Friday. Reaction will play out Sunday night and Monday open. Also: ★ ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wed) and JOLTS (Tue). Next FOMC: April 28–29.

Sunday / Monday, March 29–30 - overnight releases

18:30* 🇯🇵 Japan CPI (YoY) (Feb) - *Sun 6:30 PM ET

20:30* 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar) - *Sun 8:30 PM ET

20:30* 🇨🇳 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) - *Sun 8:30 PM ET

Monday, March 30

03:00 🇩🇪 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI Flash (YoY) (Mar)

05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Core CPI Flash (YoY) (Mar)

Tuesday, March 31

02:30 🇵🇱 Poland CPI (YoY) (Mar)

07:30 🇨🇦 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan)

08:30 🇺🇸 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan)

09:00 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Wednesday, April 1 ★ ISM Manufacturing

08:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)

09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar)

10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

10:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar)

10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Mar 27)

Thursday, April 2

08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 28)

08:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Feb)

Friday, April 3 ★★ NFP Day - US Markets CLOSED (Good Friday)

NYSE, Nasdaq, TSX and most European exchanges closed. NFP releases as scheduled - market reaction Monday open.

08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) (Mar)

EARNINGS

Format: Company Name

$TICKER

(EXCHANGE) - Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Note: Q4 2025 reporting season complete - this week transitions to Q1 2026 / fiscal quarter reporters.

Monday, March 30

No major scheduled earnings.

Tuesday, March 31

• Nike

$NKE

(NYSE) - Consumer Discretionary / Sportswear 🇺🇸

• TD Synnex

$SNX

(NYSE) - Technology / IT Distribution & Services 🇺🇸

Wednesday, April 1

• RH

$RH

(NYSE) - Consumer Discretionary / Luxury Home Furnishings 🇺🇸

• Cintas

$CTAS

(Nasdaq) - Industrials / Uniform & Business Services 🇺🇸

Thursday, April 2

No major scheduled earnings.

Friday, April 3

US markets closed for Good Friday. No earnings.

This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.

Ed Seykota

A few weeks ago I wrote about selling most of my risk positions. The war has just started, oil went up, uncertainty spread across every asset class, and trends started to break. I followed the rules, I did not predict what would happen next. I just responded to what the market was telling me.

The reason I was able to do that without hesitation comes down to a simple rule. I do not hold downtrends and I do not buy them. But that is not a rule I follow purely out of process and discipline. I discovered that it is simply how I am wired. Some may be comfortable with holding through or averaging into a drawdown, but for me the discomfort of sitting in a position that the market is actively rejecting is not something I can suffer, and I stopped trying. I am not saying my way is way better. I am saying it is mine, and that it’s compatible with my character.

What I do believe, and what shapes every position I carry, is that the base / fundamental case and the trend have to agree. I need both. The fundamental analysis tells me where the value is, what the destination looks like, what kind of asset I am dealing with and why it should be worth more than it is today. The trend tells me whether the market is currently moving in that direction or against it. When both point the same way, I can hold with conviction. When they diverge, I wait.

I try not to be smarter than the market. The market processes more information than I ever will, and it prices that information continuously. When it disagrees with me, the respectful response is not to double down on my thesis. It is to step back, stay liquid, and watch.

The way I think about it is this. Fair value is the destination. Like a sailor who knows exactly where he wants to go, I have a clear picture of where the price should eventually arrive. And like a sailor, I know the general tides, the best seasons for the passage, the historical patterns that tend to favor the crossing. I have tools to anticipate probable conditions ahead, but I cannot predict the exact weather.

Sometimes everything lines up. The winds are with you, the seas are calm, and the work is just small adjustments to the sails and the course. Those are the good stretches, and you enjoy them for what they are. Other times you sail into headwinds. Progress slows, the hull takes more punishment, and you have to work harder for the same distance. You adjust, you persist, but you stay alert.

And sometimes a storm comes. When it does, the right move is not to prove your seamanship by pushing through it. The right move is to find a safe harbor, wait it out, and sail when the conditions are ready for you. The destination has not changed. The boat is still sound. But there is no honor in taking unnecessary damage while the storm decides what it wants to do.

That is where we are right now. The trends are broken across most of what I watch. The fundamentals have not disappeared, but the market is not confirming them, and I will not sail into a storm because I believe in the destination. I am in the harbor. I am watching. And when the wind turns, I will be ready.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-nine, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• EUR/USD – EURO: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• EUR/USD – EURO: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

intel.cerlogic.com

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar

Week of March 23–27, 2026

All times ET (GMT−5)

ECONOMIC EVENTS

★ Key event this week: PCE Prices (Fri) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, releasing alongside GDP Q4 final and Personal Income/Spending. FOMC blackout lifted: Fed speakers return this week.

Monday, March 23

10:00 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan)

Tuesday, March 24

04:15 🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

04:15 🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash Services PMI (Mar)

04:30 🇬🇧 UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

04:30 🇬🇧 UK Flash Services PMI (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs Final (QoQ) (Q4)

08:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity Final (QoQ) (Q4)

09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

09:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Flash Services PMI (Mar)

10:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Feb)

Wednesday, March 25

08:30 🇺🇸 Current Account (Q4)

08:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Export Price Index (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb)

10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Mar 20)

Thursday, March 26

08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 21)

10:30 🇺🇸 Natural Gas Storage Change

14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

17:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Musalem Speaks

Friday, March 27 ★ PCE Day

08:30 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) Final (Q4)

08:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index Final (Q4)

08:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Personal Income (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Mar)

EARNINGS

Format: Company Name

$TICKER

(EXCHANGE) – Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Note: Q4 2025 reporting season largely complete. Lighter week for TSX/LSE names.

Monday, March 23

• Caledonia Mining

$CMCL

(NYSE American / TSX) – Materials / Gold Mining / Zimbabwe 🇨🇦

Tuesday, March 24

• GameStop

$GME

(NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Retail 🇺🇸

• KB Home

$KBH

(NYSE) – Real Estate / Homebuilding 🇺🇸

Wednesday, March 25

• Paychex

$PAYX

(Nasdaq) – Technology / HR & Payroll Services 🇺🇸

• Cintas

$CTAS

(Nasdaq) – Industrials / Uniform & Business Services 🇺🇸

Thursday, March 26

• Chewy

$CHWY

(NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Online Pet Products 🇺🇸

Friday, March 27

• Carnival Corporation

$CCL

(NYSE / LSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Cruise Lines 🇺🇸

This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.

Richard Dennis

Last week we discussed defining your risk before the market forces you to, and the importance of positioning for what is probable based on research rather than trying to predict outcomes. Let’s take it one step further.

Everyone can read the rules. I believe most people already know what they are supposed to do. Let winners run. Do not average down into broken trends. Cut losses quickly, get out when the structure fails. None of this is secret. Knowledge is not the edge here. The edge is in the doing of it. Consistently. Especially when it is uncomfortable.

As you well know I followed the rules recently. The positions where the trend was broken, I reduced or exited. The positions where the trend remained intact, those stayed. That is the full logic. And I’m doing it the same way every time, without letting the noise talk me out of it.

Last week the continued conflict with Iran drove oil sharply higher, uncertainty spread across every asset class, and markets continued to deteriorate. Equities broke down further. Treasuries extended their decline, and the dollar strengthened. There is no obvious playbook for this, and there is no predicting it. Just price action, and the rules.

Setting the noise aside for a moment, here is an honest observation: I do not think stocks, bonds, gold, or even oil are pricing in a prolonged conflict right now. Not really. The moves have been sharp, but the market is not behaving like it believes this lasts. If anything, it feels like many participants are coiled, ready to go all in, and simply waiting for a signal. De-escalation, a ceasefire, anything that lets them pull the trigger. Maybe they are right and that signal is coming. I genuinely do not know. But positioning heavily in anticipation of a resolution that has not happened yet is not something I am willing to do, and the risk management framework I described above is precisely why.

Now, on the subject of following investment ideas, trades and signals. I try to be precise about what I am sharing, whether something is a long-term investment, a long-term hold, or an active trade. But even that does not tell the full story, because the full story includes things that are highly individual.

We all size our investing and trading accounts different relative to our net worth, we often have different time horizons, different tax situations, different psychological tolerances for volatility. Some people are naturally built for short-term trading and will never find peace in a long-term hold. Others are the opposite. The best traders and investors I have observed over the years are the ones who found the system that fits them, that brings out the best of what they already are rather than fighting against it.

This is why I decided to share my research and moves rather than calls. To say honestly what I buy, where I buy it, why I buy it, where my risk is defined, and where I will sell. To keep it transparent at every step. That is the only way I know how to do this honestly. But what you do with it has to be adjusted to your own situation, your own character, your own edge.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-eight, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• AU/USD – GOLD: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

Economic Events

Week of March 16–20, 2026

All times ET (GMT−5)

★★ Major central bank week: FOMC decision + dot plot + SEP (Wed 14:00 ET) and Bank of Canada decision (Wed 09:45 ET). Note: FOMC blackout period is in effect — no Fed speaker remarks this week.

Monday, March 16

04:00 🇨🇳 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)

04:00 🇨🇳 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)

04:00 🇨🇳 China Fixed Asset Investment (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)

Tuesday, March 17 — FOMC Day 1

05:00 🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)

05:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)

09:15 🇺🇸 Capacity Utilization Rate (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Wednesday, March 18 ★★ BoC + FOMC Day

09:45 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada Rate Decision

10:00 🇺🇸 Housing Starts (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Feb)

10:30 🇨🇦 BoC Governor Macklem Press Conference

10:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (week Mar 13)

14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot + SEP

14:30 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Press Conference

Thursday, March 19

08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 14)

08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

08:30 🇺🇸 Current Account (Q4)

Friday, March 20

02:00 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 Leading Indicators (Feb)

EARNINGS

Format: Company Name $TICKER (EXCHANGE) – Sector

Monday, March 16

• Darden Restaurants $DRI (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Full Service Restaurants 🇺🇸

Tuesday, March 17

• XPeng $XPEV (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Electric Vehicles 🇨🇳

Wednesday, March 18

• Micron Technology $MU (Nasdaq) – Technology / Memory Semiconductors 🇺🇸

• General Mills $GIS (NYSE) – Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods 🇺🇸

• Five Below $FIVE (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸

Thursday, March 19

• Nike $NKE (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Sportswear 🇺🇸

• FedEx $FDX (NYSE) – Industrials / Shipping & Logistics 🇺🇸

• Accenture $ACN (NYSE) – Technology / IT Services & Consulting 🇺🇸

Friday, March 20

No major scheduled earnings on Friday.

This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.

Paul Tudor Jones

Last week was obviously all about the conflict with Iran. Oil prices moved sharply up, uncertainty spread across most asset classes, with equities rolling over across nearly every index. Currencies weakened against the dollar, and bonds sold off.

There is no good playbook for geopolitical events of this kind. The range of outcomes is genuinely wide. There could be further escalation, and market conditions deteriorate. There could be a ceasefire, and markets snap back hard. Or the Fed could respond to the uncertainty by signaling deeper cuts, and risk assets rally sharply on that alone. Any of these is possible. None of them is predictable with the kind of confidence that should drive a portfolio decision, not for me at least.

And so, when the trends started breaking, I reduced, and in some cases, I exited. Not because my long-term thesis has changed, and not because I suddenly had better insight than anyone else. But because the structure of the trade was no longer intact, and when that happens, I act, just like I’m supposed to according to my system. Some of positions where the trend remains solid, those stay. The thesis there is still being confirmed by price action, and I have no reason to interfere, for now.

This is sometimes not an easy process, even though it’s quite simple. And it’s not easy because there is always a voice that says: you did the research, you know what this is worth, hold through the noise. And sometimes that voice is right. But that voice does not help to manage your risk. It only defends my conviction, and I use it to get back in when the time is right.

Just to be clear, the fundamental work does not disappear when I reduce or exit. I have a thesis on every position I carry, built over weeks or months of analysis. But in the short term, anything can happen. We are not in the business of predicting. We are in the business of positioning ourselves for what is probable given what we can observe, defining our risk before we enter, and having a plan that does not require us to always make a clear-headed decision under pressure, when we are least capable of making one.

Whatever happens next, I have defined my risk. That is the only part of this game I can control.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-seven, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research, cerlogicresearch.substack.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• EUR/USD – EURO: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

Week of March 9–13, 2026, All times ET (GMT−5), ECONOMIC EVENTS

Key event this week: ★ US CPI (Wednesday). Next FOMC: March 18–19. Next BoC: March 18.

Monday, March 9

02:00 🇬🇧 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) (Q4 F)

02:00 🇬🇧 UK Current Account (Q4)

Tuesday, March 10

03:00 🇬🇧 UK Unemployment Rate (Jan)

06:00 🇺🇸 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Feb)

08:30 🇨🇦 Canada CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)

09:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production (Feb)

09:15 🇺🇸 Capacity Utilization Rate (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Feb)

Wednesday, March 11 ★ CPI Day

08:30 🇺🇸 CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings Final (Feb)

14:00 🇺🇸 Treasury Budget (Feb)

Thursday, March 12

03:00 🇬🇧 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

06:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Industrial Production (Jan)

08:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (week Mar 7)

08:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts (Jan)

08:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Jan)

08:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

Friday, March 13

08:30 🇩🇪 Germany CPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb F)

08:30 🇺🇸 PPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

08:30 🇺🇸 Core PPI (MoM/YoY) (Feb)

10:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar P)

EARNINGS

Format: Company Name $TICKER (EXCHANGE) – Sector | Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours.

Monday, March 9

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸

• ZIM Integrated Shipping $ZIM (NYSE) – Industrials / Shipping 🇮🇱

Tuesday, March 10

• Oracle $ORCL (NYSE) – Technology 🇺🇸

• Franco-Nevada $FNV (NYSE / TSX) – Materials / Gold & Silver Royalties 🇨🇦

Wednesday, March 11

• Dick’s Sporting Goods $DKS (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Sporting Goods 🇺🇸

• Aris Mining $ARIS (NYSE / TSX) – Materials / Gold Mining / Colombia & Guyana 🇨🇦

• Harmony Gold $HMY (NYSE / JSE) – Materials / Gold Mining / South Africa 🇿🇦

Thursday, March 12

• Adobe $ADBE (Nasdaq) – Technology / Creative & Document Software 🇺🇸

• Dollar General $DG (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸

• Ulta Beauty $ULTA (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Beauty Retail 🇺🇸

• Lennar $LEN (NYSE) – Real Estate / Homebuilding 🇺🇸

• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet $OLLI (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Closeout Retail 🇺🇸

• VAALCO Energy $EGY (NYSE / LSE) – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P / Gabon & Egypt 🇬🇧

Friday, March 13

No major scheduled earnings on Friday.

This calendar is for informational purposes only. Dates and times are subject to change.

Stanley Druckenmiller, Morgan Stanley Hard Lessons, January 2026

This week, we could of course talk about the Iran war, the Middle East escalation, and the consequences for markets. Oil will likely open way higher, and the dollar could follow, putting pressure on risk assets. But how long will it last, will there be a resolution, I certainly don’t know. There has been so much said about it across all media that it’s hard to filter through the noise, and it’s certainly impossible to add anything new to the conversation.

And so, this week I want to talk about something else, or someone else to be precise: Stanley Druckenmiller. Not because he needs an introduction, he doesn’t, but because he gave one of the more honest interviews I’ve seen in a long time. He sat down with Iliana Bouzali at Morgan Stanley for their Hard Lessons series. If you haven’t watched it yet, you should.

Besides the punchlines that were shared to exhaustion, I wanted to focus on some of the very important points he was making, points that perhaps stayed hidden but should be discussed, and even written down by anyone who is serious about this business. So let’s go through them.

First, nobody plays this game truly alone. The best in this business invest in the people around them. Good research is worth paying for, and great people around you are worth even more. No fund, no family office, no serious investment operation runs on one person’s genius alone, no matter what that person’s public persona might suggest.

Second, the number. Thirty percent, compounded annually, no losing years from 1981 to 2010. For anyone posting fifty or a hundred percent year-to-date on X right now, that might not sound impressive. It isn’t, in a single year. But held across nearly three decades without a single down year, it is one of the most extraordinary track records in the history of capital markets. Compounding doesn’t need to shout. The ones flashing unbelievable returns in a bull market will largely be gone before the next serious cycle is over.

Third, and here’s what made the interview really stay with me. Druckenmiller admitted he suffered from imposter syndrome for fifteen years. Maybe longer. One of the most celebrated macro investors alive, a man who helped break the Bank of England, spent the better part of two decades sick with anxiety during drawdowns. He said it plainly: he would literally throw up once or twice a week from the stress of it.

I don’t throw up twice a week, and I may never be at his level, but I know the feeling he’s pointing at. Every drawdown brings a version of it. The questions start quietly and then get loud. Do I still have it? Was I just lucky in that last run? Did I do enough research on this one? What if I’m wrong here, and the people who depend on this work are going to pay for my mistake? That’s not weakness. That’s what genuine accountability feels like. Druckenmiller learned, eventually, that the record speaks for itself, but it took him fifteen years to really believe that.

Fourth, the role of mentors, and this one matters at every stage of the game. He credits two directly. His first mentor in Pittsburgh shaped how he thinks about markets fundamentally. Then Soros, who didn’t teach him macro. Druckenmiller says he already understood that better. But Soros taught him something more important: how to size positions. How much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong is what separates good investors from great ones. That lesson came from having the right person in the room.

The good news is that in 2026, great mentors are more accessible than at any point in history. You don’t need to know the right people or be in the right building. The teachings of Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, and dozens of others are available in interviews, letters, and recorded conversations that would have taken entire careers to collect even twenty years ago. The barrier isn’t access. It’s the attention and the discipline to actually absorb it.

There is also the

$NVDA

story. He built a large position knowing almost nothing about the company, then he doubled it at a higher price, and then doubled it again. And still sold too early. There is a lot to unpack in that one, so we will leave it for another time.

That sets the tone for this week. This is update number seventy-six, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• COBALT – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: negative 🟥 ➝ neutral 🟨

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class as well as summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research -

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

Key Economic Events & Earnings – Week of March 3–7, 2026

Times in GMT‑5 / New York Time

Monday, March 2

Holidays: 🇰🇷 South Korea (Independence Movement Day)

• 03:00 🇩🇪 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

• 03:00 🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb)

• 04:55 🇩🇪 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 05:00 🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 05:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 10:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 10:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb)

Tuesday, March 3

Holidays: 🇧🇬 Bulgaria (Liberation Day) · 🇮🇳 India (Holi) · 🇮🇱 Israel (Purim) · 🇹🇭 Thailand (Makha Bucha Day)

• 06:00 🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Feb)

• 06:00 🇪🇺 Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)

• 06:00 🇬🇧 Spring Forecast Statement

• 08:30 🇬🇧 Spring Statement

• 10:55 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks

• 12:45 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Wednesday, March 4

• 20:30* 🇦🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q4) · GDP (YoY) (Q4) — *Tue eve NY

• 21:30* 🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Feb) · Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — *Tue eve NY

• 05:30 🇨🇭 SNB Press Conference

• 05:30 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)

• 06:00 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate (Jan)

• 09:15 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

• 10:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)

• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 11:00 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb)

• 11:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

• 11:30 🇨🇦 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks

• 13:38 🇵🇱 Interest Rate Decision (Mar)

• 15:00 🇺🇸 Beige Book

Thursday, March 5

• 08:30 🇪🇺 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Jan)

• 13:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 14:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Friday, March 6 ★ NFP Day

• 03:00 🇩🇪 German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)

• 06:00 🇪🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q4) · GDP (YoY) (Q4)

• 06:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

• 08:30 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Feb)

• 09:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)

• 09:30 🇨🇦 Employment Change (Feb)

• 09:30 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate (Feb)

• 11:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI (Feb)

No FOMC or BoC rate decisions this week. Next BoC & FOMC: March 18.

EARNINGS

Monday, March 2

• Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary 🇺🇸

• The AES Corporation $AES (NYSE) – Utilities 🇺🇸

• Venture Global $VG (NYSE) – Energy / LNG 🇺🇸

• Sealed Air $SEE (NYSE) – Industrials / Packaging 🇺🇸

• MongoDB $MDB (Nasdaq) – Technology / Database 🇺🇸

• Ingram Micro $INGM (NYSE) – Technology / Distribution 🇺🇸

• Credo Technology $CRDO (Nasdaq) – Technology / Semiconductors 🇺🇸

• Smith & Nephew $SN (LSE) – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇬🇧

• Bunzl $BNZL (LSE) – Industrials / Distribution 🇬🇧

• K92 Mining $KNT (TSX) – Gold Mining / Papua New Guinea 🇨🇦

• Capstone Copper $CS (TSX) – Copper Mining 🇨🇦

• New Gold $NGD (NYSE American) – Gold & Copper Mining 🇨🇦

• NexGen Energy $NXE (NYSE / TSX) – Uranium 🇨🇦

• Denison Mines $DML (NYSE American / TSX) – Uranium 🇨🇦

• Advantage Energy $AAV (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦

Tuesday, March 3

• AutoZone $AZO (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Auto Parts 🇺🇸

• Target $TGT (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Retail 🇺🇸

• Best Buy $BBY (NYSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Electronics 🇺🇸

• Ross Stores $ROST (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / Off-Price Retail 🇺🇸

• CrowdStrike Holdings $CRWD (Nasdaq) – Technology / Cybersecurity 🇺🇸

• Fresnillo $FRES (LSE) – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇬🇧

• Intertek Group $ITRK (LSE) – Industrials / Testing & Certification 🇬🇧

Wednesday, March 4

• Broadcom $AVGO (Nasdaq) – Technology / Semiconductors & Software 🇺🇸

• Brown-Forman $BFb (NYSE) – Consumer Staples / Spirits 🇺🇸

• Weir Group $WEIR (LSE) – Industrials / Mining Equipment 🇬🇧

• Beazley $BEZ (LSE) – Financials / Specialty Insurance 🇬🇧

• Baytex Energy $BTE (NYSE / TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦

• Athabasca Oil $ATH (TSX) – Oil Sands / Heavy Oil 🇨🇦

• Vermilion Energy $VET (NYSE / TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P / International 🇨🇦

• Capital Power $CPX (TSX) – Utilities / Power Generation 🇨🇦

Thursday, March 5

• Petrobras $PBR (NYSE) – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇧🇷

• Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (NYSE / TSX) – Energy / Oil & Gas 🇨🇦

• Costco Wholesale $COST (Nasdaq) – Consumer Staples / Wholesale Retail 🇺🇸

• JD.com $JD (Nasdaq) – Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce 🇨🇳

• Marvell Technology $MRVL (Nasdaq) – Technology / Semiconductors 🇺🇸

• Kroger $KR (NYSE) – Consumer Staples / Grocery Retail 🇺🇸

• Reckitt Benckiser $RKT (LSE) – Consumer Staples / Healthcare & Hygiene 🇬🇧

• Aviva $AV (LSE) – Financials / Insurance 🇬🇧

• ITV $ITV (LSE) – Communication Services / Broadcasting 🇬🇧

• Entain $ENT (LSE) – Consumer Discretionary / Sports Betting 🇬🇧

• Endeavour Mining $EDV (LSE / TSX) – Materials / Gold Mining 🇬🇧

• Admiral Group $ADM (LSE) – Financials / Insurance 🇬🇧

• Ero Copper $ERO (NYSE / TSX) – Copper & Gold Mining / Brazil 🇧🇷

• Methanex $MX (TSX / Nasdaq) – Materials / Methanol 🇨🇦

• Parex Resources $PXT (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P / Colombia 🇨🇦

• Headwater Exploration $HWX (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦

• Kelt Exploration $KEL (TSX) – Oil & Gas E&P 🇨🇦

• Maple Leaf Foods $MFI (TSX) – Consumer Staples / Protein Foods 🇨🇦

Friday, March 6

• Embraer $ERJ (NYSE) – Industrials / Aerospace & Defense 🇧🇷

• AltaGas $ALA (TSX) – Utilities / Energy Infrastructure 🇨🇦

• Algonquin Power & Utilities $AQN (NYSE / TSX) – Utilities / Renewable Energy 🇨🇦

• IMI PLC $IMI (LSE) – Industrials / Flow Control 🇬🇧

• Labrador Iron Ore Royalty $LIF (TSX) – Materials / Iron Ore Royalties 🇨🇦

Earnings dates subject to change. Non-US companies report on exchange trading hours. Sources: investing.com, Kiplinger, Junior Mining Network, company press releases.

Ed Seykota

Just a few thoughts this week about investing and professional trading.

If you’ve been observing the markets long enough, you’ve probably noticed that most people who enter this game don’t leave on their own terms. Some blow up fast and loud. Others fade out slowly, bleeding a little at a time until there’s nothing left. A very few get lucky. And fewer still actually last.

The ones still here after twenty, thirty years? They’re a different breed entirely. Usually they’re not smarter or more talented. Just ruthlessly unwilling to quit.

They didn’t find a special secret. They managed risk like it was the only thing that mattered, because eventually it is.

What separates those still standing is discipline that borders on compulsive, no joke, they follow risk rules even when they feel like cowardice for some. They stick to the system, and they let the math do the work.

Those people are often not exciting. They won’t brag about their best trade or shine on podcasts pushing the newest theories. But they’ll still be here decades from now, and most of the exciting people won’t.

That’s who I watch. That’s who I trust. Not the ones who got lucky and “know” exactly why, but the ones who built something durable out of nothing but patience, research, and an almost pathological refusal to blow up.

Longevity isn’t the consolation prize for people who couldn’t hit it big.

It is, in fact, hitting it big. Just slower than most people are willing to wait.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-five, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ positive 🟩

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend 🟥 ➝ sideways 🟨

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: positive 🟩 ➝ neutral 🟨

Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary table with comments across each asset class.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research -

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude

It took me years, and more than a few brutal losses, to truly understand risk.

When I first encountered Mark Douglas’s idea of being “at peace with any outcome,” it felt almost spiritual, like something reserved for some few enlightened people. Only later did I realize it’s quite entirely mechanical.

That peace for me never came from confidence, intuition, or some magical feel for the market. It came from doing the math. I sleep soundly and leave for weekends without obsessing over charts because every position has a predefined maximum loss, and I size my trades so that even the worst case leaves me largely intact and ready for the next opportunity. True calm for me isn’t about knowing where price will go. No one can truly know this. It’s about knowing exactly what happens no matter where it goes.

Over time, my relationship with volatility flipped entirely. I stopped merely tolerating it and started welcoming it, even looking for it. Not out of recklessness, but because volatility is often the reason big opportunities exist. For years I missed them, obsessed with being right instead of executing a sound process.

What changed wasn’t my analysis, it proved correct again and again, but in the long term. In the short term however, I accepted that the market doesn’t care about my hopes, needs, or ego. And so, my job isn’t to control the outcome. My job is to respond, size correctly, define exits clearly, and let probability work over hundreds of trades.

Once I internalized this, trading became almost boring. And that, paradoxically, is when it became profitable.

That sets the tone for this week, hopefully not too long. This is update number seventy-four, covering equities, forex, treasuries, metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as always with a refreshed summary table and signals across each market.

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research,

cerlogicresearch.substack.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways 🟨 ➝ uptrend 🟩

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

Medium-Term Trend: past 4 months | Short-Term Trend: past 4 weeks

$SPX / $SPY $NDX / $QQQ $RUT / $IWM $DAX $FTSE $NKD $HSI $KWEB

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇