Richard Dennis

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

We keep it simple, continue the rotation trade, until it stops working, that is.

Leaning away from large hyperscalers, which are determined to spend and issue as much debt and shares as possible to win the AI race. Let’s see if massive passive flows can absorb all that, because if they can’t, then we’ll enter a more structural problem.

A lot of money is changing hands here, the memory sector is an obvious beneficiary, and so are the other infrastructure companies related to the datacenter buildout.

Do we need so much? Maybe, maybe not, we’ll let the market do the talking and respect the trends. After all, these are cyclicals and always seem the cheapest at the top. Let’s see, until it’s resolved, we’ll stay tactical with the trading.

South Korea got weaker lately, we took one short and booked a small profit, we’ll see where we go here. SK Hynix IPO was on Friday, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see more vol to the upside and downside, in fact, I expect it.

As to taking a new big position, well, nothing looks particularly cheap yet and at the start of a move / turning to uptrend, and that’s the setup where the real money is made.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NIKKEI YEN – JAPAN: uptrend ➝ sideways

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: sideways ➝ downtrend

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: neutral ➝ negative

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

The dollar’s breakout is being tested now for the second week. No doubt, the soft payroll print took some of the momentum out.

We’ll stay flexible. So far, this reads as a pause and digest, not a reversal, and we will treat it as consolidation until the trend says otherwise.

Gold got some traction here. It remains highly correlated to the dollar. There’d be a time to press long, we’re still not there but may be getting quite close.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ uptrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ sideways

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ downtrend

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: neutral ➝ positive

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The stabilization is broadening. We’re seeing first signs of selloff exhaustion.

Copper escaped the short-term downtrend, so did palladium, iron ore, and tin. Zinc actually resumed its uptrend. Let’s see if silver, lithium, and nickel can do the same soon.

Still, it’s for now about the dollar. It’s around the cycle highs, and that headwind is affecting the whole complex. Let’s see if this changes.

The framework doesn’t change: respect the trends, manage the risk, and wait for long opportunities now.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

• IRON ORE, 61% – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

Here we go again.

They’re shooting at each other, and Hormuz is closed, again. Or at least it seems so now. I’m certainly not in any inner circle and can only search for reliable information, just like most of us.

And of course, we’ll have some news coming out before futures open ..

Thankfully, we don’t have to rely on noise, we do have the charts, trends, and positioning. In any case, these are often more telling than constant social media posts.

Now, we’ve pulled back to pre-war levels, the lowest since late February. All the stuck oil temporarily flushed the system. It does explain enormous, record crack spreads . But now may be setting up for round 2 regarding price increases.

US crude stockpiles fell down again, three months in a row now, meaning they kept releasing despite lower prices. Others are drawing as well, much will depend on China now.

In short, the physical market isn’t loose. The headline flows are. Global reserves will have to be filled at some point as well.

Producers still aren’t hedging at these prices, so there will be no new meaningful supply coming for years no matter what the tape says this week.

Underinvestment continues. Our long-term energy equity positions are hedged and stay on.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Same thing again, the whole curve is rolling over, again.

Warsh told the market to trade the data, not his guidance, so let’s have a look. Yields did pull back with weak jobs and oil weakness, but only for a very short while. In the old playbook, they should go way, way lower.

But they didn’t; markets see the inevitable easing reaction to any serious crisis, and they are pricing risks of Iran war escalation.

But it’s not only US, this story is global, and it’s structural: more deficits, more issuance, more supply hitting the long end, and bonds that can’t hold a rally, even when data suggests they should.

Now, Japan did something interesting last week; some even call it a bazooka; it’s moving to redirect state pension funds to invest domestically. It’s financial repression, make no mistake; for now, it helped lower the yields; let’s see for how long.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-DAY FED FUNDS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

It sure seems like we’ve entered round two in the ags.

Almost all of them are trending higher again. Crazy gains in cocoa and coffee, sugar may catch up, rice keeps pushing, wheat is waking up, corn and beans are also looking better.

We’re already long, mostly softs, but now we’ve spread our wings and went long when trends started to get established. That’s the system. Let’s see how far we’ll go this time around.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• CANOLA – CANADA: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – July 13–17, 2026

All times GMT+2 (CEST).

Monday, July 13

Economic Events

• All Day 🇲🇳 Mongolia – Naadam Festival (holiday); 🇲🇪 Montenegro – National Day

• 09:00 🇹🇷 Turkey – Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) (May)

• 11:25 🇺🇸 US – FOMC Member Bowman speaks

• 12:00 🌍 OPEC Meeting

• 12:30 🇮🇳 India – CPI (YoY) (Jun)

• 18:30 🇺🇸 US – Fed Waller speaks

• 20:00 🇬🇧 UK – BoE MPC Member Pill speaks

• 20:00 🇺🇸 US – Federal Budget Balance (Jun)

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $1377 (TSE) Sakata Seed – Agriculture / Vegetable & Flower Seeds 🇯🇵

• $1376 (TSE) Kaneko Seeds – Agriculture / Seeds & Agri-inputs 🇯🇵

• $AKBM

  (Oslo) Aker BioMarine – Agriculture / Krill & Marine Ingredients 🇳🇴

Earnings – Energy

• $PSK

  (TSX) PrairieSky Royalty – Energy / Oil & Gas Royalties (Canada) 🇨🇦

• $VIST

  (NYSE) Vista Energy – Energy / Shale Oil & Gas (Vaca Muerta, Argentina) 🇦🇷

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $PLG

  (NYSE American) /

  $PTM

  (TSX) Platinum Group Metals – Materials / PGM Developer (South Africa) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Chemicals & Materials

• $1301 (TWSE) Formosa Plastics – Materials / Petrochemicals 🇹🇼

• $EMSN

  (SIX) EMS-Chemie – Materials / Specialty Polymers 🇨🇭

• $TFF

  (Euronext) Tonnellerie François Frères – Materials / Oak Cooperage & Barrels (forestry-linked) 🇫🇷

• $NUVOCO

  (NSE) Nuvoco Vistas – Materials / Cement (India) 🇮🇳

Earnings – Shipping

• $KMAR

  (Oslo) Kongsberg Maritime – Industrials / Maritime & Marine Tech 🇳🇴

Earnings – Major US / Global

• $FAST

  (NASDAQ) Fastenal – Industrials / Distribution (US) 🇺🇸

• $HBM

  (XETRA) Hornbach-Baumarkt – Consumer Discretionary / German DIY Retail 🇩🇪

Tuesday, July 14

Economic Events

• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia – NAB Business Confidence (Jun)

• 06:30 🇯🇵 Japan – Industrial Production (MoM) (May)

• 08:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland – PPI (MoM) (Jun)

• 08:30 🇮🇳 India – WPI Inflation (YoY) (Jun)

• 09:28 🇨🇳 China – Trade Balance, Exports & Imports (Jun)

• 10:00 🇨🇳 China – New Loans (Jun)

• 14:15 🇺🇸 US – ADP Employment Change (Weekly)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – CPI & Core CPI (MoM/YoY) (Jun)

• 18:40 🇺🇸 US – Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks; 20:55 FOMC Member Bowman speaks

• 22:00 🇬🇧 UK – BoE Gov Bailey speaks

• 22:30 🇺🇸 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $CAML3

  (B3) Camil Alimentos – Consumer Staples / Rice, Sugar & Grains (Brazil) 🇧🇷

• $DBOL

  (NSE) Dhampur Bio Organics – Consumer Staples / Sugar & Bio-based Products (India) 🇮🇳

• $2292 (TSE) S Foods – Consumer Staples / Meat & Protein 🇯🇵

• $3139 (TSE) Lacto Japan – Consumer Staples / Dairy Trading 🇯🇵

Earnings – Energy

• $AKSO

  (Oslo) Aker Solutions – Energy / Oilfield Services & Engineering 🇳🇴

Earnings – Forestry

• $NSKOG

  (Oslo) Norske Skog – Materials / Paper & Pulp 🇳🇴

Earnings – Major US (Q2 bank season opens)

• $JPM

  (NYSE) JPMorgan Chase – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $BAC

  (NYSE) Bank of America – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $GS

  (NYSE) Goldman Sachs – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $WFC

  (NYSE) Wells Fargo – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $C

  (NYSE) Citigroup – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

Earnings – Major Global

• $AMX

  (NYSE) América Móvil – Communications / Telecom (Latin America) 🇲🇽

• $ERIC

  (NASDAQ) Ericsson – Technology / Telecom Equipment 🇸🇪

Wednesday, July 15

Economic Events

• 04:00 🇨🇳 China – GDP (Q2), Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment & Unemployment (Jun)

• 08:00 🇸🇪 Sweden – CPI (MoM/YoY) (Jun)

• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spain – CPI & HICP (YoY) (Jun)

• 11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area – Industrial Production (MoM) (May)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – PPI & Core PPI (MoM) (Jun); NY Empire State Index (Jul)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May)

• 14:45 🇺🇸 US – FOMC Member Williams speaks

• 15:45 🇨🇦 Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

• 16:30 🇺🇸 US – Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories

• 18:00 🇩🇪 Germany – Buba President Nagel speaks

• 20:00 🇺🇸 US – Fed Beige Book

Earnings – Energy

• $AKRBP

  (Oslo) Aker BP – Energy / Oil & Gas (North Sea) 🇳🇴

• $MRPL

  (NSE) Mangalore Refinery – Energy / Refining (India) 🇮🇳

• $QFLS

  (QSE) Qatar Fuel (WOQOD) – Energy / Fuel Distribution 🇶🇦

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $GLDG

  (NYSE American) GoldMining – Materials / Gold Developer 🇺🇸

• $OAJ

  (SGX Catalist) Fortress Minerals – Materials / Iron Ore (Malaysia) 🇸🇬

• $AVL

  (TSX) Avalon Advanced Materials – Materials / Lithium & Rare Earths (Canada) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Chemicals

• $HSCL

  (NSE) Himadri Speciality Chemical – Materials / Carbon Black & Specialty Chemicals (India) 🇮🇳

Earnings – Renewables

• $NEL

  (Oslo) Nel ASA – Renewables / Hydrogen Electrolysers 🇳🇴

Earnings – Shipping

• $SOMA

  (Oslo) Solstad Maritime – Shipping / Offshore Support Vessels 🇳🇴

• $SOFF

  (Oslo) Solstad Offshore – Shipping / Offshore Vessels 🇳🇴

Earnings – Forestry

• $CRPR

  (LSE AIM) James Cropper – Materials / Specialty Paper & Advanced Materials 🇬🇧

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $CAG

  (NYSE) Conagra Brands – Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods 🇺🇸

• $AXFO

  (Stockholm) Axfood – Consumer Staples / Food Retail (Sweden) 🇸🇪

• $CLA

  B (Stockholm) Cloetta – Consumer Staples / Confectionery 🇸🇪

Earnings – Major US / Global

• $ASML

  (NASDAQ) ASML – Technology / Semiconductor Lithography 🇳🇱

• $JNJ

  (NYSE) Johnson & Johnson – Healthcare / Pharma & Devices 🇺🇸

• $ELV

  (NYSE) Elevance Health – Healthcare / Health Insurance 🇺🇸

• $MS

  (NYSE) Morgan Stanley – Financials / Banking 🇺🇸

• $BLK

  (NYSE) BlackRock – Financials / Asset Management 🇺🇸

• $JBHT

  (NASDAQ) J.B. Hunt – Industrials / Freight & Logistics 🇺🇸

Thursday, July 16

Economic Events

• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK – GDP (MoM), Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance (May)

• 11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area – Trade Balance (May)

• 14:00 🇧🇷 Brazil – Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) (May)

• 14:15 🇨🇦 Canada – Housing Starts (Jun)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

• 16:00 🇺🇸 US – Pending Home Sales (Jun) & Business Inventories (May)

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $AA

  (NYSE) Alcoa – Materials / Aluminum 🇺🇸

• $PKX

  (NYSE) POSCO Holdings – Materials / Steel (South Korea) 🇰🇷

• $TSTH

  (SET) Tata Steel Thailand – Materials / Steel 🇹🇭

• $IIIN

  (NYSE) Insteel Industries – Materials / Steel Wire (US) 🇺🇸

• $GRNG

  (Stockholm) Gränges – Materials / Aluminum Rolling 🇸🇪

Earnings – Energy

• $OKEA

  (Oslo) Okea – Energy / Oil & Gas (North Sea) 🇳🇴

• $AKER

  (Oslo) Aker ASA – Industrials / Energy & Industrial Holding 🇳🇴

Earnings – Chemicals

• $CE

  (NYSE) Celanese – Materials / Acetyls & Specialty Chemicals 🇺🇸

• $BRG

  (Oslo) Borregaard – Materials / Biorefinery & Wood-based Chemicals 🇳🇴

Earnings – Renewables

• $SWSOLAR

  (NSE) Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy – Renewables / Solar EPC (India) 🇮🇳

• $GSF

  (LSE) Gore Street Energy Storage Fund – Renewables / Battery Storage 🇬🇧

• $HPUR

  (Oslo) Hexagon Purus – Renewables / Hydrogen Systems 🇳🇴

• $PCELL

  (Stockholm) PowerCell Sweden – Renewables / Fuel Cells 🇸🇪

• $MGN

  (Oslo) Magnora – Renewables / Developer 🇳🇴

Earnings – Materials & Equipment

• $ESSITY

  B (Stockholm) Essity – Materials / Tissue & Hygiene (pulp) 🇸🇪

• $CPAC

  (NYSE) Cementos Pacasmayo – Materials / Cement (Peru) 🇵🇪

• $ATCO

  A (Stockholm) Atlas Copco – Industrials / Compressors & Mining Equipment 🇸🇪

Earnings – Major US / Global

• $TSM

  (NYSE) Taiwan Semiconductor – Technology / Semiconductors 🇹🇼

• $UNH

  (NYSE) UnitedHealth – Healthcare / Managed Care 🇺🇸

• $ABT

  (NYSE) Abbott Laboratories – Healthcare / Diversified Health 🇺🇸

• $ISRG

  (NASDAQ) Intuitive Surgical – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇺🇸

• $GE

  (NYSE) GE Aerospace – Industrials / Aerospace 🇺🇸

• $NFLX

  (NASDAQ) Netflix – Communications / Streaming 🇺🇸

Friday, July 17

Economic Events

• 06:00 🇲🇾 Malaysia – CPI (YoY) & GDP (YoY) (Q2)

• 11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area – CPI & Core CPI (Jun, final)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – Housing Starts & Building Permits (Jun)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 US – Export & Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada – Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

• 15:15 🇺🇸 US – Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) (Jun)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Jul)

• 19:00 🇺🇸 US – Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

• 21:30 🇺🇸 US – CFTC speculative net positions – Gold, Crude, S&P 500, Nasdaq, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, BRL

Earnings – Agriculture, Fertilizer & Food

• $YAR

  (Oslo) Yara International – Agriculture / Nitrogen Fertilizer 🇳🇴

• $AAK

  (Stockholm) AAK – Consumer Staples / Vegetable Oils & Specialty Fats 🇸🇪

• $GLOBUSSPR

  (NSE) Globus Spirits – Consumer Staples / Grain Ethanol & Spirits (India) 🇮🇳

• $MCDOWELL-N

  (NSE) United Spirits – Consumer Staples / Beverages (India) 🇮🇳

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $HINDZINC

  (NSE) Hindustan Zinc – Materials / Zinc, Lead & Silver (India) 🇮🇳

• $JSWSTEEL

  (NSE) JSW Steel – Materials / Steel 🇮🇳

• $003670 (KRX) POSCO Future M – Materials / Battery Cathode Materials 🇰🇷

• $5423 (TSE) Tokyo Steel – Materials / Steel 🇯🇵

• $ALLEI

  (Stockholm) Alleima – Materials / Specialty Stainless Steel 🇸🇪

• $CRE

  (TSX-V) Critical Elements – Materials / Lithium Developer (Quebec) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Energy & Chemicals

• $RELIANCE

  (NSE) Reliance Industries – Energy / Oil-to-Chemicals & Retail (India) 🇮🇳

• $KEMIRA

  (Helsinki) Kemira – Materials / Pulp & Water Chemicals 🇫🇮

• $007690 (KRX) Kukdo Chemical – Materials / Epoxy Resins 🇰🇷

• $FCL

  (NSE) Fineotex Chemical – Materials / Specialty Chemicals 🇮🇳

Earnings – Forestry, Mining Equipment & Industrials

• $BILL

  (Stockholm) BillerudKorsnäs – Materials / Paper & Packaging 🇸🇪

• $SAND

  (Stockholm) Sandvik – Industrials / Mining & Rock Equipment 🇸🇪

• $EPI

  A (Stockholm) Epiroc – Industrials / Mining & Infrastructure Equipment 🇸🇪

• $MIDS

  (Stockholm) Midsummer – Renewables / Thin-film Solar 🇸🇪

• $VOLV

  B (Stockholm) Volvo – Industrials / Trucks & Machinery 🇸🇪

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

We’ll keep it simple and continue with the rotation trade, until it stops working that is. Leaning into healthcare and infrastructure, and chosen equities in these sectors, these stay our primary bets.

Otherwise, the same approach as always: hold where the trend is intact, and don’t chase. As to taking a new big position, well, nothing looks particularly cheap yet and at the start of a move / turning to uptrend, and that’s the setup where the real money is made.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: downtrend ➝ sideways

• DAX – GERMANY: downtrend ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: negative ➝ neutral

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

The dollar’s breakout is intact, but it stopped going straight up last week. It’s retesting now. No doubt, the soft payroll print took some of the momentum out.

We’ll stay flexible. So far, this reads as a pause and digest after the breakout, not a reversal, and we treat it as consolidation until the trend says otherwise.

Gold got some traction here. It remains highly correlated to the dollar. There’d be a time to press long again, we’re still not there but are getting quite close.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ sideways

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: downtrend ➝ sideways

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: negative ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The picture under the surface is starting to split. On one side, the first real signs of stabilization: zinc is back up to sideways, lithium the same, selloff exhausts itself. On the other, the weakness keeps rotating, nickel, tin, aluminum trying to find new support.

Copper holds well, still in a medium-term uptrend, this is much more a supply story than a demand one, for now. The dollar at cycle highs is the headwind sitting on the whole complex, let’s see if this changes. The framework doesn’t change: respect the trends, manage the risk, wait for long opportunities now.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: negative ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

We got the answer: crude lost its medium-term footing, WTI down into the high 60s and Brent around $70 now, both back at pre-war levels and their lowest since late February.

The main cause is that Hormuz flows are back now, the UAE is back to pre-war exports, the Saudis are pushing barrels into Asia, Iranian exports jumped past forty million barrels once the blockade came off. Supply came back and did the talking, for now.

But look under the flush. US crude stockpiles just fell down again, twelve straight weekly draws. The physical market isn’t loose, the headline flows are. Global reserves will have to be filled at some point as well.

Producers still aren’t hedging at these prices, so there will be no new meaningful supply coming for years no matter what the tape says this week, underinvestment continues.

The long-term energy equity positions are hedged and stay on. Nat gas is still holding its small advance, and coal has retraced, may be building a new higher low.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

The long-end bid didn’t last; in fact, last week the whole curve rolled over again. In plain terms, yields backed up across the board even with weak jobs and oil collapsing, which on the old playbook should have pulled them lower.

That’s the tell. Warsh is telling the market to trade the data, not his guidance, and coming into the payroll print the pricing actually carried a real chance of a July hike. The soft number took the edge off late; the 2-year slipped a few basis points on the day, but it didn’t change the weekly direction.

The structural story hasn’t moved: more deficits, more issuance, more supply hitting the long end, and now a curve that can’t hold a rally even when the growth data disappoints. UK gilts are back near 4.8%, and Japan’s long end is still elevated. We take no longs here.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The turn we’ve been building toward broadened out this week. Sugar joined cocoa and coffee in a short-term uptrend now. We’re long all three, plus rice.

Grains are still consolidating, but wheat recovered a medium-term uptrend, and corn stabilized for now. Keeping dry powder here, staying patient.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• CORN – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• CORN – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – July 6 – 10, 2026

Monday, July 6

Economic Events

• 🇨🇿🇰🇿🇱🇹 Holidays: Czech Republic (Jan Hus Day); Kazakhstan (Day of the Capital); Lithuania (Bank Holiday)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – Factory Orders MoM (May)

• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK – S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 15:45 US – S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (Jun, final)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Prices & Employment (Jun)

• 🇨🇦 16:30 Canada – BoC Business Outlook Survey

• 🇺🇸 17:00 US – Fed Waller speaks

• 🇬🇧 18:45 UK – BoE MPC Member Mann speaks

• 🇺🇸 21:30 US – CFTC speculative net positions – Gold +181.3K, Crude Oil +114.6K, EUR +30.2K, GBP −105.7K, JPY −146.1K, AUD −13.0K, BRL +43.7K, S&P 500 −35.4K, Nasdaq −9.1K

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $2280 (Tadawul) Almarai – Consumer Staples / Dairy & Food 🇸🇦

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $NWST (TSX-V) Northwest Copper – Materials / Copper Junior (British Columbia) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Renewables

• $EAAS (LSE AIM) eEnergy Group – Renewables / Energy Efficiency & Solar Services 🇬🇧

Earnings – Major Global

• $HBM (XETRA) Hornbach Baumarkt – Consumer Discretionary / German DIY Retail 🇩🇪

Tuesday, July 7

Economic Events

• 🇯🇵 01:30 Japan – Household Spending YoY & MoM (May)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – Industrial Production MoM (May)

• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK – Halifax House Price Index (Jun)

• 🇬🇧 11:30 UK – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes + Financial Stability Report

• 🇬🇧 12:30 UK – BoE Gov Bailey speaks

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada – Trade Balance (May); 🇺🇸 US – Trade Balance (May)

• 🇨🇦 16:00 Canada – Ivey PMI (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 17:00 US – NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 18:00 US – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – 3-Year Note Auction

• 🇺🇸 22:30 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors

• $PENG (NASDAQ) Penguin Solutions – Technology / Memory & AI Infrastructure 🇺🇸

Earnings – Major Global

• $QNBK (QSE) Qatar National Bank – Financials / Banking 🇶🇦

Wednesday, July 8

Economic Events

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan – Current Account (May)

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia – Building Approvals MoM (May)

• 🇳🇿 04:00 New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement & Press Conference

• 🇸🇪 08:00 Sweden – CPI YoY & MoM (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 11:30 Germany – 10-Year Bund Auction

• 🇩🇪 13:30 Germany – Buba President Nagel speaks

• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil – Retail Sales YoY & MoM (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:30 US – Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories

• 🇵🇱 18:04 Poland – NBP Interest Rate Decision (Jul)

• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – 10-Year Note Auction

• 🇺🇸 20:00 US – FOMC Meeting Minutes

• 🇺🇸 21:00 US – Consumer Credit (May)

Earnings – Major US

• $LEVI (NYSE) Levi Strauss – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel 🇺🇸

• $PSMT (NASDAQ) PriceSmart – Consumer Staples / Warehouse Retail (Latin America) 🇺🇸

• $AZZ (NYSE) AZZ Inc – Industrials / Hot-Dip Galvanizing & Metal Coatings 🇺🇸

Earnings – Major Global

• $9983 (TSE) Fast Retailing – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel (Uniqlo) 🇯🇵

• $KOG (Oslo) Kongsberg Gruppen – Aerospace & Defense / Maritime & Defense Tech 🇳🇴

• $CCAP (EGX) Qalaa Holdings – Diversified / Energy, Agri & Cement (Egypt) 🇪🇬

• $KOF (Euronext) Kaufman & Broad – Consumer Discretionary / French Homebuilder 🇫🇷

Thursday, July 9

Economic Events

• 🇦🇷 Holiday: Argentina (Independence Day)

• 🇨🇳 03:30 China – CPI YoY & MoM, PPI YoY (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – Trade Balance (May)

• 🇲🇾 09:00 Malaysia – BNM Interest Rate Decision

• 🇪🇺 12:00 Euro Area – Eurogroup Meetings

• 🇪🇺 13:30 Euro Area – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

• 🇲🇽 14:00 Mexico – CPI YoY & MoM (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

• 🇺🇸 15:00 US – FOMC Member Williams speaks

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – Existing Home Sales (Jun)

• 🇲🇽 17:00 Mexico – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• 🇺🇸 19:01 US – 30-Year Bond Auction

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $PEP (NASDAQ) PepsiCo – Consumer Staples / Beverages & Snacks 🇺🇸

• $BARN (SIX) Barry Callebaut – Consumer Staples / Cocoa & Chocolate Processing 🇨🇭

• $SZU (Frankfurt) Südzucker – Consumer Staples / Sugar & Starch 🇩🇪

• $AGR (Vienna) AGRANA – Consumer Staples / Sugar, Starch & Fruit 🇦🇹

• $2809 (TSE) Kewpie – Consumer Staples / Food & Condiments 🇯🇵

• $SMPL (NASDAQ) Simply Good Foods – Consumer Staples / Nutrition Snacks 🇺🇸

Earnings – Energy

• $VIST (NYSE) Vista Energy – Energy / Shale Oil & Gas (Vaca Muerta, Argentina) 🇦🇷

• $BNOR (Oslo) BlueNord – Energy / North Sea Oil & Gas 🇳🇴

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $TMQ (NYSE American) Trilogy Metals – Materials / Copper-Zinc Developer (Alaska) 🇺🇸

• $PTM (NYSE American) Platinum Group Metals – Materials / Platinum-Palladium Developer (South Africa) 🇿🇦

Earnings – Chemicals

• $4187 (TSE) Osaka Organic Chemical – Materials / Specialty Chemicals 🇯🇵

• $WDFC (NASDAQ) WD-40 – Materials / Specialty Lubricants 🇺🇸

Earnings – Shipping

• $SNI (Oslo) Stolt-Nielsen – Industrials / Chemical Tankers & Terminals 🇳🇴

Earnings – Renewables

• $BONHR (Oslo) Bonheur – Renewables / Wind & Offshore Energy 🇳🇴

Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors

• $3008 (TWSE) Largan Precision – Technology / Optical Lenses 🇹🇼

Earnings – Major Global

• $3382 (TSE) Seven & i Holdings – Consumer Staples / Convenience Retail 🇯🇵

• $TCS (NSE) Tata Consultancy Services – Technology / IT Services 🇮🇳

• $PCO (Warsaw) Pepco Group – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇵🇱

Friday, July 10

Economic Events

• 🇳🇿 Holiday: New Zealand (Bank Holiday)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany – CPI MoM & YoY (Jun, final)

• 🇫🇷 08:45 France – CPI MoM & HICP MoM (Jun, final)

• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland – SECO Consumer Climate (Jun)

• 🌍 11:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil – CPI YoY (Jun)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada – Unemployment Rate, Employment Change & Building Permits (Jun / May)

• 🇷🇺 18:00 Russia – CPI YoY & MoM (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 18:00 US – WASDE Crop Report

• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

Earnings – Major US

• $DAL (NYSE) Delta Air Lines – Industrials / Airlines (Q2 season opener) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $4992 (TSE) Hokko Chemical – Materials / Crop Protection & Agrochemicals 🇯🇵

Earnings – Chemicals

• $EMSN (SIX) EMS-Chemie – Materials / Specialty Polymers 🇨🇭

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $ELK (Oslo) Elkem – Materials / Silicon & Silicones 🇳🇴

Earnings – Renewables

• $IREDA (NSE) IREDA – Renewables / Green Energy Financing (India) 🇮🇳

Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors

• $2408 (TWSE) Nanya Technology – Technology / DRAM Memory 🇹🇼

Earnings – Major Global

• $8267 (TSE) AEON – Consumer Staples / Retail 🇯🇵

• $6506 (TSE) Yaskawa Electric – Industrials / Robotics & Automation 🇯🇵

Ed Seykota

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

The summer rotation seems to have started early. The S&P has rolled over and is now in a short-term downtrend. The Nasdaq has lost its uptrend as well.

What’s still holding up is the less crowded side. The Dow and the Russell are both maintaining their uptrends, and the Russell’s COT remains positive. In sectors, healthcare and infrastructure are still our main bets for relative outperformance.

Asian markets are on a rollercoaster and will likely stay that way, especially South Korea where leverage is driving things now. These markets can double or get cut in half on the first sign of an AI capex slowdown. We’ll never know for sure, so the best approach is to follow the trends and manage risk.

As for us, nothing really changes. We hold selective longs where the trend is intact and we won’t short uptrends. We’re also not leaning into anything new right now. Nothing looks particularly cheap and at the beginning of a move, and that’s still where most of the big gains tend to be made.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: neutral ➝ negative

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

The dollar has finally broken out of its multi-month structure, a clean break to a thirteen-month high over 101 on DXY. And that happened with both oil and yields going down.

Now, will it go straight to 103-105, or will it retrace/retest, or even back down? The probabilities point to the higher dollar, but we’ll see.

That remains the most important dynamic in markets right now. It weighs heavily on other currencies and commodities first, but usually the rest of the assets follow. Let’s see how much of that can be tolerated, but I don’t expect any action until beloved markets would start to really roll over.

Gold took the stronger dollar/shortage on the chin. It almost lost the must-hold zone, and briefly traded below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025. There will be time to get back in and press long, but that we’re not there yet.

A firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed are two legs out at once. We follow the trend in front of us, and right now that is up in the dollar and down in almost everything priced against it.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: sideways ➝ downtrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: sideways ➝ uptrend

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: neutral ➝ negative

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: neutral ➝ negative

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: neutral ➝ negative

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The contagion we flagged kept spreading. The dollar wrecking ball caught the holdouts. Copper, zinc, and tin have all rolled into short-term downtrends.

Still, the core medium-term structure remains intact where it matters most: Doctor Copper. We’ll see how this plays out, but we’re being careful now. In the very short term, this still looks more like a supply story than a demand one.

Our framework doesn’t change. We respect the trends, manage risk, and stay long only while the trend is intact. For now, it seems many individual moves are exhausted.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE, 61% – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral ➝ negative

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

The framework of a framework, or talks about talks, hold for now. It’s peaceful just enough to keep some of the tankers moving through Hormuz.

But is the agreement to keep talking fraying? We had a reported attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman, and retaliation, just after the markets closed on Friday, coincidence no doubt. Well, we don’t know, but we think this doesn’t resolve quickly, and in the best case is months away from normal flows.

Anyhow, the price did the talking again, and crude kept bleeding, Brent into the low 70s now, managed money sold and shorted into the low, same as last week.

All we hear is narratives now of a giant glut, Iran and Venezuela flooding the markets, together with the UAE, who exited the OPEC. That’s the story, peaceful sailing into the sunset, and oil abundance forever in the future.

It’s obviously sarcastic, but written to emphasize that none of these narratives even touch the real story. Long-term prices didn’t move, and so, producers didn’t hedge, so there is no new desperately needed investment, and no new meaningful supply for years no matter the headlines.

We stay patient and the long-term energy equity positions stay on. Nat gas is still keeping its small advance despite the oil smash, while coal’s higher-low consolidation softened to a medium-term sideways.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

The curve kept flattening, this time from the short end. Yields around the world pulled back along with oil, though not by much. We’ll see how long that lasts.

Globally it’s the same synchronized inflation fight, with most central banks still leaning toward tightening. Their resolve will be tested again, and we’ll see how long they can hold the line.

The structural story hasn’t changed. More deficits, more issuance, more money creation. We’re still not taking any longs here, except for occasional trades. Nothing in this setup makes me want to own long-duration government bonds.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 2-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• 5-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The speculative flush is over. It ended right as the most bearish news hit, yet prices refused to fall much further. New leaders are already emerging, with rice, coffee, and cocoa starting to trend higher.

The real story is that energy crisis damage is still feeding through unevenly, and El Niño is now adding another layer of supply pressure across multiple regions.

In Southeast Asia, drier and hotter conditions could be hitting production in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while also stressing palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia. India is also seeing reduced monsoon rainfall in many areas.

In West Africa, warmer and drier weather tend to stress cocoa trees in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together produce around 70 percent of global supply.

In South America the picture is more mixed: southern Brazil and Argentina often see wetter conditions that can benefit soy and corn, while northeast Brazil tends to get drier.

This combination of lingering energy and fertilizer problems plus emerging El Niño effects suggest that we’ll very likely be higher six to twelve months from now. But for now the job is keeping dry powder ready for when the broader trend turns back up.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 29 – July 3, 2026

Monday, June 29

Economic Events

• 🇨🇴🇲🇹🇱🇰 Holidays: Colombia & Malta (St Peter and St Paul Day); Sri Lanka (Poson Poya Day)

• 🇬🇧 07:00 UK – BoE MPC Member Pill speaks

• 🇪🇸 09:00 Spain – CPI YoY & HICP YoY (Jun)

• 🇦🇺 13:30 Australia – RBA Assistant Gov Kent speaks

• 🇪🇺 19:30 Euro Area – ECB President Lagarde speaks

Tuesday, June 30

Economic Events

• 🇪🇬 Holiday: Egypt (Revolution Day)

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan – Industrial Production MoM (May)

• 🇨🇳 03:30 China – Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing & Composite PMI (Jun); 🇦🇺 Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes

• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK – GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1), Business Investment, Current Account, Nationwide HPI; 🇩🇪 Germany – Retail Sales (May)

• 🇫🇷 08:45 France – CPI MoM & HICP MoM (Jun), Consumer Spending

• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland – KOF Leading Indicators (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 09:55 Germany – Unemployment Rate & Change (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 14:00 Germany – CPI MoM & YoY (Jun)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada – GDP MoM (Apr)

• 🇺🇸 15:45 US – Chicago PMI (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – JOLTS Job Openings (May); CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 22:30 US – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Earnings – Major US

• $NKE

(NYSE) Nike – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel & Footwear (Q4 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸

• $STZ

(NYSE) Constellation Brands – Consumer Staples / Beer, Wine & Spirits (Q1 FY27, after close; call Jul 1) 🇺🇸

Wednesday, July 1

Economic Events

• 🇨🇦🇭🇰🇷🇼 Holidays: Canada (Canada Day); Hong Kong (SAR Establishment Day); Rwanda (Independence Day)

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan – Tankan Large Manufacturers / Non-Manufacturers Index & Outlook (Q2)

• 🇨🇳 03:45 China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 09:15–10:00 Eurozone – Manufacturing PMIs: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area (Jun)

• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Euro Area – CPI YoY, Core CPI YoY & CPI MoM (Jun, flash)

• 🇺🇸 14:15 US – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)

• 🇨🇦 15:00 Canada – BoC Gov Macklem; 🇪🇺 ECB Lagarde; 🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey; 🇺🇸 Fed Gov Warsh speak

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices & Employment (Jun); Construction Spending (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:30 US – Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories

• 🇺🇸 17:30 US – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)

Earnings – Major US

•$MSM

(NYSE) MSC Industrial Direct – Industrials / Metalworking & MRO Distribution (Q3 FY26, before open) 🇺🇸

•$GBX

(NYSE) Greenbrier Companies – Industrials / Freight Railcars & Marine Barges (Q3 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸

•$UNF

(NYSE) UniFirst – Industrials / Uniforms & Workwear (Q3 FY26, before open) 🇺🇸

•$FC

(NYSE) Franklin Covey – Industrials / Leadership Training & Consulting (Q3 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸

Thursday, July 2

Economic Events

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia – Trade Balance (May)

• 🇯🇵 05:35 Japan – 10-Year JGB Auction

• 🇨🇭 08:30 Switzerland – CPI MoM (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Euro Area – Unemployment Rate (May)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg Hourly Earnings, Private Payrolls, Participation, U6, Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims [NFP brought forward ahead of the July 4 holiday]

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US – Factory Orders (May)

• 🇬🇧 17:45 UK – BoE MPC Member Mann speaks

• 🇺🇸 19:00 US – Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count (brought forward)

• 🇺🇸 22:30 US – Fed’s Balance Sheet

Friday, July 3

Economic Events

• 🇺🇸 Holiday: United States (Independence Day – US markets closed)

• 🇯🇵 02:30 Japan – S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)

• 🇨🇳 03:45 China – Caixin Services PMI (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 09:15–10:00 Eurozone – Services & Composite PMIs: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 10:00 Euro Area – ECB President Lagarde speaks

• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK – S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 17:00 Germany – Buba President Nagel; 🇬🇧 UK – BoE Gov Bailey speak

• 🇺🇸 21:30 US – CFTC speculative net positions

Brett Steenbarger, Positive Trading Psychology: Turning Personal Strengths Into Trading Strengths, 2026

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

The main US story going forward is about the giant IPOs and how the market will absorb them, along with potential rotation during the summer months. Healthcare and infrastructure are still my primary bets.

Asia remains the story I’m watching. Japan may follow Korea and Taiwan, but it’s a much larger market, so I wouldn’t expect gains of the same leverage driven magnitude.

As always, we’re holding selective longs where the trend is intact. We’re not leaning into anything new right now though. Nothing looks particularly cheap and at the start of a move, and that’s where most of the big gains tend to be made.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

The big event of the week was Warsh’s first FOMC. It was a hawkish hold on rates as expected, but the real story was the message, possible framework and balance sheet changes. The 2026 rate cut was removed from the dot plot, and nine of eighteen officials now project at least one hike this year.

The hawkish tilt gave the dollar another push, but the DXY has not yet broken out of its multi-month structure. This remains the most important dynamic right now. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Until then, we’re facing continued pressure, especially on gold. There will be time to get back in and press long, but for us, we’re not there.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CNH/USD – CHINESE YUAN: uptrend ➝ sideways

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways ➝ downtrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The stronger dollar and the bifurcated, war-punctured global economy headwind isn’t uniform. Some metals are doing better than others. Silver, platinum and palladium felt it first, now we see some others follow.

Under the surface the picture is mixed. Aluminum and lithium broke to downtrend, joining iron and nickel. What is holding well is copper, uranium, zinc and tin. Much more a supply issue for now rather than strong demand.

The framework is the same, respect the trends, manage risk, position for the highest probability. We’re long where the trends are intact, and stay this way until each individual move is exhausted.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

Well, we got our answer on oil, sort of. The interim understanding came together and the Strait opened, also sort of. Then we got more fighting and signals that the blockade could be reimposed if the terms aren’t met.

So we go into the new week with a framework of a framework, sort of, but no clarity. Like we said, this isn’t going to resolve easily either way, and even in the best case it will take months before energy flows actually normalize.

All that said, the price did the talking last week, as it always does. WTI fell from around 85 down to the high 70s, and Brent dipped below 80 for the first time since March. It sure seems like everybody sold and worse yet, shorted into the that low price, we’ll see what comes next.

Meanwhile, we’re still running on reserve releases and inventories bridging the gap. Producers still aren’t hedging, which means no necessary investment / no new meaningful supply increase for years, no matter what the headlines say.

We’re staying patient, the long-term energy equity positions stay on, we’ll alert if anything changes. In other news, nat gas is keeping its small advance, despite the oil smash, still looks like a trapped opportunity, and coal is consolidating, potentially building another higher low.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot flipped to a hiking bias, seventeen of eighteen now see inflation risk to the upside, and the market is pricing a hike as soon as October.

New Chair Kevin Warsh gutted the statement to 130 words, stripped the easing language, refused to submit his own dot, and started talking up a smaller balance sheet. With May CPI at 4.2%, the highest in three years, this is a committee that has decided its problem is inflation, at least that’s the message for now.

And yet, the structural backdrop I keep coming back to hasn’t moved an inch, more deficits, more issuance, more money creation, more inflation, all of it aimed at the long end. So we still take no longs here.

Globally it’s the same for now, BoJ hiking, the BoE holding with two members dissenting for a hike, the ECB already moved, a synchronized inflation-fighting pivot born of the energy shock. Japan’s 10-year is still up near 2.6%, above its pre-GFC level, with the BoJ now actively tapering JGB purchases.

One nuance to flag, and you’ll want to phrase this your way: the curve actually bear-flattened this week. The 2-year spiked about 16 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest Fed-day jump since 2008, while the 10-year and 30-year barely moved. I read that as a near-term wrinkle, not a change in the structural long-end story, and I’m watching whether the steepening resumes once the front end settles.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The pullback got its catalyst, after the fact. Oil remains the most important short-term dynamic for this sector, and crude started breaking down on the de-escalation headlines. Add a dollar at a one-year high on top and you have a clean overhang across the whole complex.

But here is the funny thing, the speculative flush seems to be over for now, right when the most bearish news for the agricultural prices hit the screen. We respect that price action, this is the volatile, spec-money phase we said it would be.

Still, none of this short term dynamics touches the real story. The fundamentals haven’t changed, the energy and fertilizer problems are still feeding through with uneven impact around the world, and even with a full peaces deal signed tomorrow the long-term damage is already done.

We’ll very likely be higher six to twelve months out, which is exactly why the job right now is to keep dry powder ready for when the trend turns back up. On the individual ags we’re light and patient, still just a quarter position in rice.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 22–26, 2026

Monday, June 22

Economic Events

• 🇭🇷 Holiday: Croatia – Anti-Fascist Struggle Day

• 🇨🇳 03:00 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 13:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada CPI MoM & YoY + Core CPI (May)

• 🇺🇸 15:00 Fed Waller Speaks

• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Earnings – Major Global

• $ATD.A (TSX) Alimentation Couche-Tard – Consumer Staples / Convenience Stores (Circle K) 🇨🇦

• $MTS (ASX) Metcash – Consumer Staples / Australian Wholesale Grocery (IGA) 🇦🇺

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $PMET (TSX) Patriot Battery Metals – Materials / Lithium Junior (Corvette Project, Quebec) 🇨🇦

• $TSTH (SET) Tata Steel Thailand – Materials / Steel 🇹🇭

• $CDPR (TSX-V) Cerro De Pasco Resources – Materials / Peruvian Polymetallic Mining (silver, zinc, lead) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Renewables

• $NESF (LSE) NextEnergy Solar Fund – Renewables / UK Solar Infrastructure 🇬🇧

Earnings – Other

• $4088 (TSE) Air Water – Industrials / Industrial Gases & Chemicals 🇯🇵

• $3IN (LSE) 3i Infrastructure – Infrastructure Investment Trust 🇬🇧

Tuesday, June 23

Economic Events

• 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 Holidays: Estonia National Day, Latvia Midsummer Day

• 🇯🇵 02:30 Japan S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) + BoJ Core CPI YoY

• 🇸🇬 07:00 Singapore Core CPI & CPI YoY (May)

• 🇫🇷 09:15 France HCOB Services & Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 09:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 10:00 Eurozone HCOB Services, Manufacturing & Composite PMI Flash (Jun)

• 🇬🇧 10:30 UK S&P Global Services, Manufacturing & Composite PMI Flash (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 14:15 ADP Employment Change Weekly

• 🇨🇦 15:00 BoC Governor Macklem Speaks

• 🇺🇸 15:45 US S&P Global Services, Manufacturing & Composite PMI Flash (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 19:00 2-Year Note Auction

• 🇺🇸 22:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Earnings – Major US

• $FDX (NYSE) FedEx – Industrials / Global Logistics (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸

• $CCL (NYSE) Carnival – Consumer Discretionary / Cruise Lines 🇺🇸

• $KBH (NYSE) KB Home – Consumer Discretionary / US Homebuilder 🇺🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $WOR (NYSE) Worthington Industries – Industrials / Steel Processing (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $KFY (NYSE) Korn Ferry – Industrials / Executive Recruiting & Consulting 🇺🇸

• $ICLR (NASDAQ) ICON plc – Healthcare / Clinical Research 🇮🇪

Wednesday, June 24

Economic Events

• 🇪🇪 🇱🇹 🇻🇪 Holidays: Estonia Midsummer Day, Lithuania St. John’s Day, Venezuela Battle of Carabobo

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ

• 🇹🇭 09:00 Thailand Interest Rate Decision

• 🇩🇪 10:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index + Business Expectations + Current Assessment (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Current Account (Q1) + Building Permits (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US New Home Sales + MoM (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing

• 🇺🇸 19:00 5-Year Note Auction

• 🇺🇸 22:00 Fed Bank Stress Test Results

Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors

• $MU (NASDAQ) Micron Technology – Technology / Memory Semiconductors (Q3 FY26, after close) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Major US

• $PAYX (NASDAQ) Paychex – Industrials / Payroll & HR Services (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸

• $JEF (NYSE) Jefferies Financial – Financials / Investment Banking 🇺🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $WS (NYSE) Worthington Steel – Materials / Steel Processing (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Chemicals

• $FUL (NYSE) H.B. Fuller – Materials / Specialty Adhesives (Q2 FY26) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Major Global

• $TCOM (NASDAQ) Trip.com Group – Consumer Discretionary / Chinese Online Travel 🇨🇳

• $BKG (LSE) Berkeley Group – Consumer Discretionary / UK Homebuilder 🇬🇧

• $TRI (Euronext) Trigano – Consumer Discretionary / European RV & Caravan Maker 🇫🇷

Thursday, June 25

Economic Events

• 🇧🇭 🇱🇧 🇵🇰 🇸🇮 Holidays: Bahrain, Lebanon & Pakistan Ashura, Slovenia National Day

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia Employment Change + Unemployment Rate + Full Employment (May)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul)

• 🇪🇸 09:00 Spanish GDP QoQ Final (Q1)

• 🇪🇺 10:00 ECB Economic Bulletin

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY & MoM (May) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US GDP QoQ Final (Q1) + Durable Goods Orders MoM (May) + Personal Spending (May)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Claims

• 🇺🇸 19:00 7-Year Note Auction

• 🇲🇽 21:00 Mexico Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 21:40 FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Earnings – Major US

• $DRI (NYSE) Darden Restaurants – Consumer Discretionary / Olive Garden, LongHorn (Q4 FY26) 🇺🇸

• $AYI (NYSE) Acuity Brands – Industrials / Lighting & Building Tech 🇺🇸

• $BB (NYSE) BlackBerry – Technology / Cybersecurity & IoT Software 🇨🇦

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $MKC (NYSE) McCormick & Company – Consumer Staples / Spices & Flavors (Q2 FY26) 🇺🇸

• $KIML (Bursa Malaysia) Kim Loong Resources – Consumer Staples / Palm Oil 🇲🇾

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $CMC (NYSE) Commercial Metals – Materials / Steel (Q3 FY26) 🇺🇸

• $BRC (TSX-V) Blackrock Silver – Materials / Silver Junior (Tonopah West, Nevada) 🇨🇦

• $PHOS (TSX-V) First Phosphate – Materials / Phosphate Junior (LFP battery materials) 🇨🇦

• $LI / $AMLIF (TSX) American Lithium – Materials / Lithium Junior 🇨🇦

• $ROS (TSX-V) Roscan Gold – Materials / Gold Junior (Mali) 🇨🇦

• $KDNC (LSE AIM) Cadence Minerals – Materials / Diversified Mining Investments 🇬🇧

• $CTL (LSE AIM) CleanTech Lithium – Materials / Lithium Junior (Chile) 🇬🇧

• $AIR (TSX-V) Clean Air Metals – Materials / Platinum-Palladium-Copper Junior (Ontario) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Energy

• $YINS (Bursa Malaysia) Yinson Holdings – Energy / Offshore Oil & Gas Services (FPSO) 🇲🇾

Earnings – Renewables

• $SEIT (LSE) SDCL Energy Efficiency – Renewables / Energy Efficiency Infrastructure 🇬🇧

Earnings – Major Global

• $HMb (Stockholm) H&M Hennes & Mauritz – Consumer Discretionary / Global Fashion Retail (Q2 H1) 🇸🇪

• $WGO (NYSE) Winnebago Industries – Consumer Discretionary / RV Manufacturer (Q3 FY26) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $EPAC (NYSE) Enerpac Tool Group – Industrials / Industrial Tools 🇺🇸

• $MEI (NYSE) Methode Electronics – Industrials / Engineered Components 🇺🇸

• $HFD (LSE) Halfords – Consumer Discretionary / UK Auto & Cycling Retail 🇬🇧

Friday, June 26

Economic Events

• 🇧🇭 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Holidays: Bahrain & Pakistan Ashura, India Muharram

• 🇯🇵 01:30 Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Jun)

• 🇫🇷 12:00 France Jobseekers Total (May)

• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil Unemployment Rate (May)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (May)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 US Goods Trade Balance + Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations 1Y/5Y Final (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 16:30 FOMC Member Williams Speaks

• 🇺🇸 17:30 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

• 🇺🇸 19:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $AGA (TSX-V) Silver47 Exploration – Materials / Silver Junior (Alaska) 🇨🇦

Earnings – Renewables

• $CGEH (NASDAQ) Capstone Green Energy – Renewables / Microturbine Energy Systems 🇺🇸

• $PYRG (Frankfurt) Pyrum Innovations – Renewables / Tire Pyrolysis Recycling 🇩🇪

Earnings – Other

• $APOG (NASDAQ) Apogee Enterprises – Industrials / Architectural Glass & Coatings (Q1 FY27) 🇺🇸

• $HBMG (XETRA) Hornbach-Baumarkt – Consumer Discretionary / German DIY Retail 🇩🇪

When you’re at peace with any outcome, you will experience a carefree, objective state of mind, where you make yourself available to perceive and act upon whatever the market is offering you.”

Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

Quite a week. Opened in the red, sold off a bit more, then bounced back on another peace headline. To be honest, I just want to see how we trade once we get past all this noise.

As you know by now, we are not in the business of telling you where markets are going in the short term. We will leave the predictions to others. What we can do is focus on the dynamics, keep risk management tight, and position for the most probable scenarios.

Now, it is a heavy central bank week ahead with BoJ likely hiking on Tuesday and Kevin Warsh doing his first FOMC on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what message is conveyed there.

The next big question is whether we get a summer rotation. Even a small amount of money coming out of tech would lift a lot of other sectors. It is not that easy though. In this passive flows world big tech just keeps taking most of the money. If rotation does happen, my primary bet would still be healthcare and infrastructure.

Asia is still the one to watch. Korea and Taiwan held in pretty well despite last week’s volatility, and the leverage we discussed has not seriously bitten yet.

As always, we will stay long where the trend is intact, but we are not looking to take on excessive risk at this point.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

The dollar traded around 100 on DXY for yet another week, right on the verge of a major breakout, but that hasn’t happened yet. Still, the pressure on everything else is showing, and quietly keeps building. This is still by far the most important dynamic out there.

Gold has entered a medium-term downtrend, the first time since late 2023. The major support we flagged last week didn’t hold. Bitcoin also remains weak and is sitting on its support zone. Where they move next is now tied to the dollar and yields, at least for now.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: downtrend ➝ sideways

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ uptrend

• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: negative ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Precious metals keep getting hit first by the stronger dollar and the general need for liquidity caused by the Iran war and the developing energy crisis and rising rates. Now base metals are feeling the moderate pressure as well.

Still, the dollar headwind isn’t uniform across the complex. Tin and Nickel lost their short-term uptrends, while Copper recovered quite nicely, so we have first signs of divergence to keep an eye on.

The framework is the same: respect the trends, manage risk. We’re long where the trends are intact, and will stay this way until each individual move is exhausted.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: downtrend ➝ sideways

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral ➝ negative

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

We went from shooting at each other to some sort of understanding again, or not. Who really knows at this point. I think it’s better to focus on what’s actually happening.

I don’t think this resolves easily either way. We’ll likely keep running on large reserve releases until something actually changes. I’m watching closely and will follow the trend.

The longer I trade, the more I realize how important it is to follow the price rather than the narratives, at least when it comes to short-term trading. The medium-term uptrend in crude is over, for now, WTI fell to around $85 on Friday on the headlines.

We’ll exit from the remaining Brent position if the medium-term trend bends there as it did for WTI, but staying patient with the rest given the structural backdrop. Long-term energy equities, nat gas and coal positions remain for now, we’ll adjust and alert if anything changes.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• COAL – NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Just one change all week: 10-year flipped from short-term downtrend back to sideways as yields eased from above 4.5%, CPI didn’t spook the market, everything else stays in medium-term downtrend.

The structural backdrop hasn’t changed, more deficits, more debt issuance, more money creation, and more inflation is what the market keeps trying to price into the long end.

We stay away from any longs and watch the FOMC on Wednesday closely, this is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and how he frames the path matters a lot more than the current rate itself.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The pullback continues, but it has slowed down here. The speculative flush is grinding on, and dollar strength is the obvious overhang.

We respect the price action. The fundamentals haven’t changed; the energy and fertilizer crisis is still feeding through, with unequal impact in different parts of the world.

Now, even in the case of peace tomorrow, the long-term supply damage is already done. We’ll likely be higher 6-12 months from now, but we need dry powder to be ready when we trend up again.

On individual ags, we only have 1/4 soybean oil and 1/4 rice left.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 15–19, 2026

Monday, June 15

Economic Events

• 🇦🇷 🇧🇲 🇨🇴 Holidays: National Day (Argentina), National Heroes Day (Bermuda), Sacred Heart (Colombia)

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan GDP QoQ Final (Q1) + GDP Price Index YoY + Current Account (Apr)

• 🇨🇭 08:30 Switzerland PPI MoM (May)

• 🇮🇳 08:30 India WPI Inflation YoY (May)

• 🇪🇺 09:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Trade Balance (Apr) + Industrial Production MoM (Apr)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 15:15 Industrial Production MoM & YoY (May)

Earnings – Consumer Staples

• $COLR (Euronext Brussels) Colruyt Group – Consumer Staples / Belgian Grocery (Q4 Earnings Release) 🇧🇪

Earnings – Other

• $3IN (LSE) 3i Infrastructure – Infrastructure Investment Trust 🇬🇧

Tuesday, June 16

Economic Events

• 🇮🇲 Many Islamic markets closed – Islamic New Year (Hijri)

• 🇨🇳 04:00 China Industrial Production YoY, Unemployment Rate, Fixed Asset Investment (May)

• 🇯🇵 05:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision – expected hike to 1.00% from 0.75%

• 🇯🇵 08:30 BoJ Press Conference

• 🇦🇺 06:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Wages YoY (Q1) + ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)

• 🇩🇪 11:00 German ZEW Current Conditions & Economic Sentiment (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Import / Export Price Index MoM (May) + Housing Starts + Building Permits (May)

• 🇺🇸 19:00 20-Year Bond Auction

• 🇺🇸 22:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $WLY (NYSE) John Wiley & Sons – Communication Services / Academic & Professional Publishing 🇺🇸

• $GRGD (TSX) Groupe Dynamite – Consumer Discretionary / Women’s Apparel (Garage, Dynamite) 🇨🇦

• $LZB (NYSE) La-Z-Boy – Consumer Discretionary / Furniture (release after close, call Wed 8:30am ET) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $ADW.A / $ADW.B (TSX) Andrew Peller – Consumer Staples / Canadian Wine Producer (release after close, call Wed 10am ET) 🇨🇦

Wednesday, June 17

Economic Events

• 🇮🇸 🇲🇾 Holidays: Iceland Independence Day, Malaysia Hijri New Year

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan Trade Balance + Exports YoY (May)

• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK CPI MoM & YoY (May) + PPI Input MoM

• 🇸🇪 09:30 Sweden Interest Rate Decision

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone CPI MoM, YoY & Core CPI YoY Final (May)

• 🇺🇸 11:00 IEA Monthly Report

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 Pending Home Sales MoM (May) + Business Inventories (Apr)

• 🇺🇸 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing

• 🇺🇸 20:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Statement + Economic Projections + Dot Plot

• 🇺🇸 20:30 FOMC Press Conference (Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair)

• 🇧🇷 23:30 Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Earnings – Technology & Manufacturing

• $JBL (NYSE) Jabil Inc – Technology / Electronics Manufacturing Services (AI infrastructure) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $KMX (NYSE) CarMax – Consumer Discretionary / Used Car Retail 🇺🇸

Thursday, June 18

Economic Events

• 🇪🇬 Holiday: Egypt – Islamic New Year (Hijri)

• 🇳🇿 00:45 New Zealand GDP QoQ (Q1)

• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Claimant Count, Average Earnings (Apr/May)

• 🇨🇭 09:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2) + Monetary Policy Assessment

• 🇮🇩 09:30 Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

• 🇳🇴 10:00 Norway Interest Rate Decision

• 🇹🇼 10:00 Taiwan Interest Rate Decision (Q2)

• 🇬🇧 13:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision + MPC Vote Split + Meeting Minutes

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Initial Jobless Claims (Jun)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 US Leading Index MoM (May)

• 🇺🇸 19:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

Earnings – Technology & Consulting

• $ACN (NYSE) Accenture – Technology / Consulting & Managed Services 🇮🇪

Earnings – Consumer Staples

• $KR (NYSE) Kroger – Consumer Staples / US Grocery 🇺🇸

• $TSCO (LSE) / $TSCDY Tesco – Consumer Staples / UK Grocery (Q1 Trading Statement) 🇬🇧

• $EMP.A (TSX) Empire Company – Consumer Staples / Canadian Grocery (Sobeys, Safeway, Foodland) 🇨🇦

Friday, June 19

Economic Events

• 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇩🇰 🇫🇮 🇭🇰 🇸🇪 🇹🇼 Holidays: US Juneteenth, China Dragon Boat Festival, Nordic Midsummer, HK/Taiwan Tuen Ng / Dragon Boat

• 🇯🇵 01:30 Japan National Core CPI YoY (May) + National CPI MoM

• 🇯🇵 01:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany PPI MoM (May)

• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK Retail Sales MoM & YoY (May) + Core Retail Sales

• 🇷🇺 12:30 Russia Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales (Apr/May)

• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Earnings – Mining & Metals

• $PMET (TSX) Patriot Battery Metals – Materials / Lithium Junior (Corvette Project, Quebec) 🇨🇦

Stanley Druckenmiller, from his interview in The New Market Wizards, Jack D. Schwager, 1992

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

Markets printed a fresh ATH early last week and then ended with a snap decline, with Nasdaq down almost 5% on Friday in the worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock.

Some say it’s the strong payrolls lifting yields and erasing the hope for cuts later this year. I think that’s not the real reason, this was already priced in. We just went too far too fast, and the pullback had to happen at some point.

The nine-week low-volume S&P winning streak finally broke and every major US index flipped back to short-term sideways, except for the Dow. The rotation we’ve been talking about is grinding under the surface, but with passive inflows favoring large-cap tech the way they do, it’s really difficult to see how far it could go.

Asian markets open will be very interesting, especially South Korea and Taiwan. The companies trading there are great and profitable, but there’s tremendous leverage out there now, it is what fueled the parabolic move and that always cuts both ways.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• NASDAQ 100 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways

• MSCI EM – EMERGING MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• RUSSELL 2000 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

The US dollar kept climbing higher last week, with the real move coming on Friday after the payrolls report. DXY closed just above 100 but hasn’t broken out of the multi-month structure just yet, and this is probably the most important dynamic out there right now.

Strong dollar is putting pressure on everything else, the only currency still in an uptrend against it is the offshore Chinese Yuan. Gold is feeling it too and now sits at major support, and Bitcoin, which has been weak for half a year already, is also sitting at major support. How all of this resolves comes down to where the dollar goes next.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend ➝ sideways

• RUB/USD – RUSSIAN RUBLE: uptrend ➝ sideways

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ downtrend

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• EUR/USD – EURO: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend ➝ sideways

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: positive ➝ neutral

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Precious metals were hit first by the stronger dollar, and the general need for liquidity caused by the Iran war and the developing energy crisis / rising rates. Now base metals are feeling the moderate pressure as well.

We’ll see where the markets take us. As always, what we can do is respect the trends, manage risk, and position for the highest probability scenarios. We’re long where the trends are intact, and will stay this way until each individual move is exhausted.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

• TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: positive ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

The Iran conflict hasn’t materially changed, if anything they’re shooting at each other more it seems. The last big pullback came on yet another headline about lifting the naval blockade, but it doesn’t seem to be happening right now, and the market doesn’t seem to care anymore. I don’t think this resolves easily either way, we’ll likely run on large reserve releases until such time. I’m watching closely and will follow the trend.

What’s really interesting under the surface is that managed money can’t build a meaningful long position in oil, let alone hold it over the weekend. One post can wipe them out so they simply don’t do it, their risk parameters won’t allow it. Producers aren’t hedging at these prices either, and without hedging there’s no investment, which means no meaningful new supply for years to come.

The medium-term uptrend in crude is still intact so we stay patient with the oil position, same goes for energy equities. Natural gas is slowly grinding higher, so we’re comfortable with a starter position there. Coal stays long, that trend is clear, and we’ll adjust if anything changes.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Nothing has fundamentally changed yet, all maturities remain in medium-term downtrend and the structural backdrop is still the same. The market is anticipating the obvious government reaction to any crisis in the economy or markets, or even to no crisis, which is almost always more debt issuance, more money creation, and more inflation.

What’s interesting under the surface is the curve. On Friday, the 2- year and 10-year yields have been blasting higher on payrolls, while the 30-year went nowhere. So the curve is steepening, it’s subtle but also the cleanest tell that the bond market sees the Fed staying tight while expecting the economy or markets to start cracking first.

Japan’s 10-year is still holding above 2.5 percent, higher than pre-GFC, and UK 10-year is retesting the recent breakout. We stay away from any longs in the bond space. As we said last week and got confirmation now, the recent reprieve didn’t look like the start of a new trend.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The pullback we discussed for some time now has now materialized. Managed money ran for the hills on the largest outflows in a long time.

We respect the price action; it’s crucial for risk management, while being aware that the fundamentals haven’t changed. The energy and fertilizer crisis is still feeding through, and even in the case of peace tomorrow, the long-term supply damage is already done. We’ll likely be higher 6-12 months from now, but we need dry powder to be ready when we trend up again.

That’s why we closed the DBA core LTH on Friday, with most of the fund constituents having lost their medium-term uptrends. On individual ags we’re down to long cotton trimmed to 1/4, soybean oil at full position, and rice at 1/4 left.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SOYBEAN OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• UREA FERTILIZER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 8–12, 2026

Monday, June 8

Economic Events

• 🇦🇺 🇨🇴 Holidays: King’s Birthday (Australia), Corpus Christi (Colombia)

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan GDP QoQ Final (Q1), GDP YoY (Q1), Current Account (Apr)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate (May)

• 🇺🇸 17:00 NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

Earnings – Consumer Staples

• $CPB (NASDAQ) Campbell’s – Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods (Soup, Snacks) 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $MTN (NYSE) Vail Resorts – Consumer Discretionary / Mountain Resorts 🇺🇸

Tuesday, June 9

Economic Events

• 🇬🇧 01:01 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (May)

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (May)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Trade Balance (Apr) + Industrial Production MoM (Apr)

• 🇿🇦 11:30 South Africa GDP Annualized QoQ

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Trade Balance (Apr) + Imports & Exports (Apr)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Trade Balance (Apr)

• 🇨🇳 18:29 China Trade Balance, Imports & Exports YoY (May)

• 🇺🇸 19:00 3-Year Note Auction

• 🇺🇸 22:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Earnings – Uranium & Mining

• $UEC (NYSE American) Uranium Energy Corp – Materials / Uranium ISR Mining 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Staples

• $SJM (NYSE) J.M. Smucker – Consumer Staples / Coffee, Snacks, Pet Food 🇺🇸

• $UNFI (NYSE) United Natural Foods – Consumer Staples / Grocery Wholesale Distribution 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $CASY (NASDAQ) Casey’s General Stores – Consumer Discretionary / Convenience Stores 🇺🇸

Wednesday, June 10

Economic Events

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia Building Approvals MoM (Apr)

• 🇨🇳 03:30 China CPI MoM, YoY & PPI YoY (May)

• 🇩🇪 11:30 Germany 10-Year Bund Auction

• 🇺🇸 14:30 CPI MoM, YoY & Core CPI MoM, YoY (May)

• 🇨🇦 15:45 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement

• 🇨🇦 16:30 BoC Press Conference

• 🇺🇸 16:30 Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

• 🇷🇺 18:00 Russia CPI MoM & YoY (May)

• 🇺🇸 19:00 10-Year Note Auction

• 🇺🇸 20:00 Federal Budget Balance (May)

Earnings – Technology

• $ORCL (NYSE) Oracle – Technology / Cloud Infrastructure & Enterprise Software 🇺🇸

Earnings – Mining Services

• $MDI (TSX) Major Drilling – Materials / Specialized Mining Drilling Services 🇨🇦

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $CHWY (NYSE) Chewy – Consumer Discretionary / Pet E-Commerce 🇺🇸

Thursday, June 11

Economic Events

• 🇬🇧 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance (May)

• 🇯🇵 01:50 Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q2)

• 🇸🇪 08:00 Sweden CPI MoM & YoY (May)

• 🇪🇺 12:00 Eurogroup Meetings

• 🇺🇸 12:00 OPEC Monthly Report

• 🇹🇷 13:00 Turkey One-Week Repo Rate (Jun)

• 🇪🇺 14:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision + Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) + Monetary Policy Statement

• 🇺🇸 14:30 PPI MoM & Core PPI MoM (May) + Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Building Permits MoM (Apr)

• 🇪🇺 14:45 ECB Press Conference

• 🇺🇸 18:00 WASDE Report

Earnings – Technology

• $ADBE (NASDAQ) Adobe – Technology / Creative & Marketing Software 🇺🇸

Earnings – Homebuilders

• $LEN (NYSE) Lennar – Consumer Discretionary / US Homebuilder 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $DOL (TSX) Dollarama – Consumer Discretionary / Canadian Discount Retail 🇨🇦

• $RH (NYSE) RH – Consumer Discretionary / Luxury Home Furnishings 🇺🇸

Earnings – Industrials

• $HLMA (LSE) Halma plc – Industrials / Safety, Environmental & Photonics 🇬🇧

Friday, June 12

Economic Events

• 🇳🇬 🇵🇭 🇷🇺 Holidays: Democracy Day (Nigeria), Independence Day (Philippines), Russia Day (Russia)

• 🇳🇿 00:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

• 🇯🇵 06:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM (Apr)

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany CPI MoM & YoY Final (May)

• 🇬🇧 08:00 UK GDP MoM (Apr) + Manufacturing Production MoM (Apr) + Industrial Production MoM (Apr) + Trade Balance (Apr)

• 🇫🇷 08:45 France CPI MoM & HICP MoM (May)

• 🇪🇸 09:00 Spain CPI YoY & HICP YoY (May)

• 🇮🇳 12:30 India CPI YoY (May)

• 🇧🇷 14:00 Brazil CPI YoY (May)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (Jun) + Inflation Expectations 1Y / 5Y

• 🇺🇸 19:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

After the record surge from early April, we are now consolidating at the highs, and the question for me is whether the rotation we discussed will play out during the summer. I’ll be watching intra-S&P dynamics, the Dow, which has just broken out, and small caps.

Developed markets ex-US are finally catching up. Germany’s DAX went to uptrend and is setting up to make new all-time highs. Korea and Taiwan are still pushing in mania territory, but the broader Asian picture is mixed. China/Hang Seng remains in downtrend, and India is still weaker.

In the positions we hold, we will stay until the trend is intact. We’re already trading rotation and looking for great single-stock opportunities. What we certainly won’t do is sell or short uptrends.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DAX – GERMANY: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

We’re now whipped around by news almost every single day, and that mostly affects the oil. Oil up, dollar up, oil down, dollar down, that was the dynamic, but that correlation is weaker lately.

The dollar remains in uptrend, but it hasn’t broken out. The fiscal backdrop, Fed easing, and the move to short-end debt are dollar-negative, but the energy crisis dynamics and strong inflows to the US are slightly winning out, for now at least.

Other currencies are mixed; most are weaker lately against the dollar, particularly in those countries dependent on energy imports. What is quite interesting here is the continued strength in the Swiss Franc, despite zero rates, carry trades, and central bank / SNB signaling readiness to intervene in the forex markets. There are lots of risky bets out there funded by short / borrowed Franc; it’d be interesting to see what happens if these are forced to unwind.

Managed money has largely left the gold trade. It’s not yet as extreme as in October 2022 or September 2023; that was full capitulation, but we might get there. Narratives aside, we will follow the trends above anything else.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: sideways ➝ uptrend

• INR/USD – INDIAN RUPEE: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ uptrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: neutral ➝ positive

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Base metals have been outperforming previous metals lately. The reasons are quite straightforward.

First, precious metals had lately one of the best performances in history, so they are taking a breather.

Secondly, the Iran war and oil spike have hit the Middle East, and countries in Asia first, both large holders of gold, silver, PGMs, all large holders for investment and savings purposes. That likely will pass, as all short-term dynamics eventually do.

Finally, the broader thesis on the structural drivers has not changed. Decades of underinvestment in base metals are showing, particularly in copper. We also have now an energy crisis that has an impact on supply that is still in front of us, all at the time when governments are trying to drive the industrial buildout.

We’re long the base metals, trends are intact. We will let the markets tell us when each individual move is exhausted.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAD – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

Crude pulled back last week on yet another news. This time it was about lifting the naval blockade. I don’t know if it’s true. It doesn’t seem to be happening right now, and markets don’t seem to care anymore.

The Iran conflict has not materially changed, but the price is telling us something. Maybe reserves releases are larger than expected, or maybe the speculative money is running away from the trade. Likely both. Either way, I don’t think it’ll be that easy, but I am watching closely and will follow the trend.

We’ve had interesting developments in natural gas. The medium-term went from downtrend to sideways, the first step of what could become a larger move. It may take more time, but it is usually a good idea to buy cheap and stay with the trend. The structural setup remains compelling.

In any case, we will adjust the oil position if the short-term weakness continues. The medium-term uptrend in crude remains intact, so for now we’re patient. The same goes for energy equities. We’ve also taken a starter position in natural gas. As to coal, we’re still long. The trend is clear.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Treasuries got a small reprieve last week, it fits with the broader pattern: energy down, yields down, and bonds get bid a little. Still, nothing has fundamentally changed just yet. All maturities remain in medium-term downtrend.

The structural backdrop remains. The market is anticipating the obvious government reaction to any crisis, or even no crisis, which is almost always more debt issuance, more money creation, and more inflation.

Japan’s 10-year is still holding above 2.5 percent, higher than pre-GFC. UK yields pulled back, 10-year may be retesting the recent breakout here. In any case, I stay away from any longs in the bond space. I don’t read the recent reprievei as the start of a new trend, we’ll see.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• 10-YEAR T-NOTE – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• 30-YEAR T-BOND – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The pullback we’ve discussed and were expecting in agricultural commodities is materializing. Last week, we warned that the broader complex would likely pull back in case of oil weakness. That is exactly what is happening, and managed money is running for the hills, with the largest outflows in a long time.

While we see it as an opportunity and will look to add back what we closed on the last spike, we’ll also respect the trends. The fundamental problems have not changed yet. The energy and fertilizer crisis is still feeding through. Even in the case of peace tomorrow, the long-term damage to supply is already done.

The medium-term picture is still largely intact across the complex. We’re long with a core broad position that follows the agriculture index, and we’re trading the individual single positions where the trend supports it. The longer-term thesis is intact, the near-term is just extremely noisy.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• CORN – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CORN – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – June 1–5, 2026

Monday, June 1

Economic Events

• 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI & Composite PMI (May) – reported overnight

• 🇬🇧 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

• 🇪🇺 Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

• 🇺🇸 15:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (May)

Earnings – Technology

• $HPE (NYSE) Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Technology / Networking, AI Infrastructure 🇺🇸

• $CRDO (NASDAQ) Credo Technology – Technology / AI Connectivity Semiconductors 🇺🇸

• $SAIC (NASDAQ) Science Applications International – Technology / Government IT Services 🇺🇸

Earnings – Real Estate

• $SRE (LSE) Sirius Real Estate – Real Estate / German & UK Industrial Parks 🇬🇧

Tuesday, June 2

Economic Events

• 🇦🇺 06:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

• 🇨🇭 09:00 Switzerland CPI MoM & YoY (May)

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash YoY & Core CPI Flash YoY (May) + Unemployment Rate (Apr)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) + Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

Earnings – Technology

• $PANW (NASDAQ) Palo Alto Networks – Technology / Cybersecurity 🇺🇸

• $GTLB (NASDAQ) GitLab – Technology / DevSecOps Platform 🇺🇸

Earnings – Energy

• $BWLP (NYSE / OSE) BW LPG – Energy / LPG Shipping (VLGC) 🇸🇬

Earnings – Industrials

• $DCI (NYSE) Donaldson – Industrials / Filtration Products 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer & Retail

• $DG (NYSE) Dollar General – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸

• $ULTA (NASDAQ) Ulta Beauty – Consumer Discretionary / Specialty Beauty Retail 🇺🇸

• $SIG (NYSE) Signet Jewelers – Consumer Discretionary / Diamond Jewelry Retail 🇺🇸

• $VSCO (NYSE) Victoria’s Secret – Consumer Discretionary / Specialty Apparel 🇺🇸

Wednesday, June 3

Economic Events

• 🇦🇺 03:30 Australia GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1)

• 🇨🇭 Switzerland Q1 GDP QoQ & YoY

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone PPI MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Trade Balance (Apr)

• 🇺🇸 14:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (May)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Trade Balance (Apr) + Initial Jobless Claims

• 🇺🇸 15:45 S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)

• 🇺🇸 16:00 ISM Services PMI & Prices (May)

• 🇨🇦 15:45 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement

Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors

• $AVGO (NASDAQ) Broadcom – Technology / AI Semiconductors & Software 🇺🇸

• $CRWD (NASDAQ) CrowdStrike – Technology / Cybersecurity 🇺🇸

• $VEEV (NYSE) Veeva Systems – Technology / Life Sciences Cloud 🇺🇸

• $AI (NYSE) C3.ai – Technology / Enterprise AI Software 🇺🇸

Earnings – Healthcare

• $MDT (NYSE) Medtronic – Healthcare / Medical Devices 🇮🇪

Earnings – Consumer & Retail

• $ITX (BME) / $IDEXY Inditex – Consumer Discretionary / Fast Fashion (Zara) 🇪🇸

• $M (NYSE) Macy’s – Consumer Discretionary / Department Stores 🇺🇸

• $FIVE (NASDAQ) Five Below – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸

• $OLLI (NASDAQ) Ollie’s Bargain Outlet – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸

• $PVH (NYSE) PVH Corp – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel (Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger) 🇺🇸

Thursday, June 4

Economic Events

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Trade Balance & Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 🇪🇺 14:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision + Press Conference 14:45

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Initial Jobless Claims + Trade Balance (Apr) + Unit Labor Costs (Q1)

• 🇺🇸 17:00 Crude Oil Inventories

Earnings – Technology

• $DOCU (NASDAQ) Docusign – Technology / E-Signature & Agreement Management 🇺🇸

• $IOT (NYSE) Samsara – Technology / Connected Operations Platform 🇺🇸

• $RBRK (NYSE) Rubrik – Technology / Cyber Resilience & Data Backup 🇺🇸

• $TTAN (NASDAQ) ServiceTitan – Technology / Trades Industry SaaS 🇺🇸

• $GWRE (NYSE) Guidewire Software – Technology / P&C Insurance Platform 🇺🇸

• $CIEN (NYSE) Ciena – Technology / Optical Networking 🇺🇸

• $PL (NYSE) Planet Labs – Technology / Earth Observation Satellites 🇺🇸

Earnings – Energy & Power

• $AGX (NYSE) Argan – Industrials / Power Plant EPC Services 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Staples & Industrials

• $BFA / $BFB (NYSE) Brown-Forman – Consumer Staples / Spirits (Jack Daniel’s) 🇺🇸

• $SAP (TSX) Saputo – Consumer Staples / Global Dairy Processing 🇨🇦

• $TTC (NYSE) Toro Company – Industrials / Outdoor Maintenance Equipment 🇺🇸

• $MTO (LSE) Mitie Group – Industrials / Facilities Management UK 🇬🇧

Earnings – Real Estate & Housing

• $1928 (TSE) / $SKHSY Sekisui House – Real Estate / Japanese Homebuilder 🇯🇵

Earnings – Healthcare

• $COO (NASDAQ) CooperCompanies – Healthcare / Medical Devices, Contact Lenses & Fertility 🇺🇸

Earnings – Consumer Discretionary

• $LULU (NASDAQ) Lululemon Athletica – Consumer Discretionary / Athletic Apparel 🇺🇸

Friday, June 5

Economic Events

• 🇩🇪 08:00 Germany Industrial Production MoM (Apr)

• 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone GDP QoQ Final & YoY Final (Q1) + Employment Change Final (Q1)

• 🇨🇦 14:30 Canada Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (May)

• 🇺🇸 14:30 Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY (May)

• 🇺🇸 21:00 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

• 🇺🇸 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Earnings – Industrials

• $ABM (NYSE) ABM Industries – Industrials / Facility Solutions 🇺🇸

Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude, 2001

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

US markets are holding strong after the record surge that started in early April. Shorts were squeezed, managed and passive money went full long, reminding us again that flows are a decisive factor these days, regardless of the fundamentals.

If this strength continues I would not be surprised if we’d see summer rotation to small caps and the Dow Jones, they continue to show positive COT, meaning they’re both in uptrends but not crowded at all.

The US divergence is still the defining feature. Developed markets are following, but they didn’t go up nearly as high and are yet to make new all-time highs. Emerging / growth markets like Korea and Taiwan are in mania phase, while India is weak and China outright broke down again.

In any case, you know my system by now. I won’t sell or short uptrends. I’m not particularly long general equities at the moment, and in the positions I hold, I will stay until the trend is intact.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: sideways ➝ uptrend

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

One of my biggest surprises was that the dollar didn’t rip way higher on the oil spike. It tried to breach 100 on the DXY during the hot Iran war phase but got rejected. I thought about it for longer, it might very well be that nobody believed then that the conflict could last.

Initially they were right. When the ceasefire was announced, the dollar sold off. Since then we had new “deals” every few days, usually before market open (what a surprise). And so, it really started to bounce two weeks ago. Maybe the energy crisis dynamics are finally winning and overcoming the fiscal backdrop, Fed easing, and the shift toward short-end debt.

The medium-term trend still hasn’t confirmed a new dollar uptrend, so there’s no real conviction in either direction yet. In any case, narratives aside, we follow the trends above anything else.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: sideways ➝ downtrend

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ downtrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: sideways ➝ downtrend

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: uptrend ➝ sideways

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: sideways ➝ downtrend

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ downtrend

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: sideways ➝ downtrend

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: sideways ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: neutral ➝ negative

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: positive ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The relative strength of industrial over precious metals continues. Silver had a nice spike, only to get a sharp correction, same goes for platinum. We’ll just have to wait and see when this consolidation is concluded.

What is happening right now is the battle between supply, which is inevitably impacted by the energy crisis that may stay with us for longer. As to demand, it’s also severely impacted, but much will depend on the government’s reaction.

And governments are now driving economies to a greater extent than in the last three decades. You know what I expect: more debt, more spending, and a push toward industrial buildout.

We’re long, but as always, the markets will tell us when the moves are exhausted and it’s time to get out.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

Crude has paused later last week on yet another deal news, it’d be ridiculous if it wasn’t so serious. Still, it is what it is, it’s about the Iran war now.

Every day, oil and gas flows from the region are impacted, and the longer it drags on, the more time it will take to recover production. For now we’re running on reserves, but if they run out we’ll enter an entirely new phase.

As for me, I’ve been long oil for some time now and nat gas only recently. Also long coal. It may take some time, but let’s remember: it’s usually a good idea to buy cheap and stay with the trend.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• GASOLINE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Energy / oil up, yields up, bonds down. Energy / oil down, yields down, bonds up. It’s as simple as that for now. It doesn’t have to be this way, but the markets are anticipating the obvious government reaction to any crisis, which is almost always more debt and more money creation leading to inflation. I stay away from any longs here.

What’s interesting is Japan. Their 10-year yields reached 2.7 percent, and did not pull back last week. Yields are now higher than before the GFC, and they’ve clearly given up on capping them.

I’m also watching UK yields, and political situation there. But really, you can find a similar situation in many other developed economies.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

Let’s start with the most important short-term dynamic: oil. It’s almost certain we’ll see a broader pullback in agricultural commodities if a true improvement in the Gulf is achieved. But that’s it, I think it’ll be just a short-term reaction as speculative money leaves the sector, and it will be volatile.

The real story is that the long-term impact of the energy and fertilizer crisis is just beginning to show up in the prices. Even in the case of peace tomorrow the damage is already done. I’m long with a core position in DBA and trade a wide variety of single ones as well.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CATTLE – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research –

intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 25–29, 2026

Monday, May 25

Economic Events

• 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇮🇸 Many markets closed – Memorial Day (US), Spring Bank Holiday (UK), Pentecost / Whit Monday (Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Hungary)

• 07:00 🇸🇬 Singapore CPI YoY & Core CPI YoY (Apr)

Earnings – Agriculture

• $SMTO3 (B3) São Martinho – Consumer Staples / Sugar & Ethanol Production Brazil 🇧🇷

Tuesday, May 26

Economic Events

• 07:00 🇯🇵 BoJ Core CPI YoY

• 15:00 🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite 20 MoM & YoY (Mar)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (May)

Earnings – Energy

• $ONGC (BSE) Oil & Natural Gas Corporation – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas India 🇮🇳

Wednesday, May 27

Economic Events

• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia CPI YoY (Q2) + Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q2)

• 04:00 🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision + Rate Statement & Monetary Policy Statement

• 14:15 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change Weekly

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr)

• 19:00 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $CIA (ASX) Champion Iron – Materials / Iron Ore Mining Canada/Australia 🇨🇦

Earnings – Agriculture

• $UVV (NYSE) Universal Corporation – Consumer Staples / Leaf Tobacco Processing & Trading 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $CRM (NYSE) Salesforce – Technology / CRM & Cloud Software 🇺🇸

• $PDD (NASDAQ) PDD Holdings – Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce China 🇨🇳

• $BNS (NYSE / TSX) Scotiabank – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦

• $BMO (TSX) Bank of Montreal – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦

• $NA (TSX) National Bank of Canada – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦

• $HPQ (NYSE) HP Inc – Technology / Personal Computing 🇺🇸

Thursday, May 28

Economic Events

• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia Private New Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 GDP QoQ Final (Q1)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending MoM (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders MoM & Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims

• 14:10 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Apr)

• 15:00 🇿🇦 South Africa Interest Rate Decision

• 16:00 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (Apr)

• 18:00 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Current Account (Q1)

Earnings – Agriculture & Food

• $HRL (NYSE) Hormel Foods – Consumer Staples / Protein & Packaged Foods 🇺🇸

Earnings – Materials & Metals

• $JMAT (LSE) Johnson Matthey – Materials / Platinum Group Metals & Specialty Chemicals 🇬🇧

Earnings – Energy & Utilities

• $SSE (LSE) SSE – Utilities / Power Generation & Distribution UK 🇬🇧

Earnings – Other

• $RY (NYSE / TSX) Royal Bank of Canada – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦

• $TD (NYSE / TSX) TD Bank – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦

• $CM (NYSE / TSX) CIBC – Financials / Banking Canada 🇨🇦

• $DELL (NYSE) Dell Technologies – Technology / PCs, Servers & AI Infrastructure 🇺🇸

• $ADSK (NASDAQ) Autodesk – Technology / Design & Engineering Software 🇺🇸

• $LULU (NASDAQ) Lululemon Athletica – Consumer Discretionary / Apparel 🇨🇦

• $DLTR (NASDAQ) Dollar Tree – Consumer Discretionary / Discount Retail 🇺🇸

Friday, May 29

Economic Events

• 01:30 🇯🇵 Tokyo Core CPI YoY (May)

• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production MoM (Apr)

• 08:45 🇫🇷 France CPI MoM & HICP MoM (May) + GDP QoQ & YoY Final (Q1) + Consumer Spending MoM (Apr)

• 09:00 🇨🇭 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

• 09:00 🇪🇸 Spain CPI YoY & HICP YoY (May)

• 09:55 🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Rate & Change (May)

• 14:00 🇩🇪 Germany CPI MoM & YoY (May)

• 13:00 🇧🇷 Brazil GDP QoQ & YoY (Q1)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada GDP QoQ, YoY, Annualized & MoM (Q1 / Mar)

• 15:45 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (May)

• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Economic Events – Sunday May 31

• 03:30 🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI & Composite PMI (May)

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

The divergence is still the defining feature here. US strength is holding, even as the VIX wakes up. Developed markets are struggling to keep pace and have just lost their uptrend. Without South Korea and Taiwan, growth markets would look much the same.

You know my system by now. I won’t sell or short uptrends. I’m not particularly long general equities at the moment, and in the positions I hold, I will stay until the trend is intact.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• MSCI EAFE – DEVELOPED MARKETS: uptrend ➝ sideways

• DAX – GERMANY: uptrend ➝ sideways

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• FTSE 100 – UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: uptrend ➝ downtrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DOW JONES – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

One of my biggest surprises was that the dollar didn’t rip way higher on the oil spike. It tried to breach 100 on the DXY during the hot Iran war phase but got rejected.

When the ceasefire was announced, the dollar sold off. It only really started to bounce last week. Maybe the energy crisis dynamics are finally winning, helped by the fiscal backdrop, Fed easing, and the shift toward short-end debt.

The medium-term trend still hasn’t confirmed a new dollar uptrend, so there’s no real conviction in either direction yet. In any case, narratives aside, we follow the trends above anything else.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: uptrend ➝ sideways

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: uptrend ➝ sideways

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• BRL/USD – BRAZILIAN REAL: uptrend ➝ sideways

• AUD/USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ downtrend

• BTC/USD – BITCOIN: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ETH/USD – ETHEREUM: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: uptrend ➝ downtrend

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NOK/USD – NORWEGIAN KRONE: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: downtrend ➝ sideways

• EUR/USD – EURO: uptrend ➝ sideways

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: uptrend ➝ sideways

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: sideways ➝ downtrend

• CAD/USD – CANADIAN DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NZD/USD – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• AU/USD – GOLD: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SGD/USD – SINGAPORE DOLLAR: uptrend ➝ sideways

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: sideways ➝ downtrend

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SEK/USD – SWEDISH KRONA: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: negative ➝ neutral

• GBP/USD – BRITISH POUND: positive ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

The relative strength of industrial over precious metals continues. Silver had a nice spike, only to get a sharp correction on Friday with the markets. We’ll just have to wait and see when this consolidation is concluded.

What is happening right now is the battle between supply, which is inevitably impacted by the energy crisis that may stay with us for longer. As to demand, it’s also severely impacted, but much will depend on the government’s reaction.

And governments are now driving economies to a greater extent than in the last three decades. You know what I expect: more debt, more spending, and a push toward industrial buildout.

We’re long, but as always, the markets will tell us when the moves are exhausted and it’s time to get out.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• NICKEL – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

Crude oil is back to a short-term uptrend, and this week both crude and natural gas COT positioning turned positive. I’m taking note.

Still, no secret, it’s all about the Iran situation. Every day, oil and gas flows from the region are impacted, and the longer it drags on, the more time it will take to recover production. For now we’re running on reserves, but if they run out we’ll enter an entirely new phase.

As for me, I’ve been long oil for some time now and nat gas only recently. Also long coal. It may take some time, but let’s remember: it’s usually a good idea to buy cheap and stay with the trend.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Bonds crash is accelerating. Energy up, yields up, bonds down. It’s as simple as that for now. It doesn’t have to be this way, but the markets are anticipating the obvious government reaction, which is almost always more debt and more money creation leading to inflation. I stay away from any longs here.

What’s interesting is Japan. Their 10-year yields just reached 2.7 percent, higher than before the GFC, and they’ve clearly given up on capping them. The FOMC minutes this week will be dissected for any signal on the pace of the new Fed’s thinking.

I’m also watching UK yields, and political situation there. But really, you can find a similar situation in many other developed economies.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

One of the most interesting places to be right now, and for the foreseeable future. It’s also one of the most active sectors this week by signal count. Some grains are taking a pause. Corn, soybeans, and canola have all slipped from their uptrends. These are short-term dynamics, and they will remain volatile.

The true story is that the impact of the energy and fertilizer crisis is just beginning to show up in the prices. Let’s hope the conflict ends soon and Hormuz is opened, but even in the case of peace tomorrow the damage is already done. I’m long, with a core position in DBA, and I trade a wide variety of single ones.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COTTON NO. 2 – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• CORN – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEANS – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• CANOLA – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• WHEAT – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• ROUGH RICE – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 18–22, 2026

Monday, May 18

Economic Events

• 🇨🇦 Canada markets closed – Victoria Day

• 04:00 🇨🇳 China Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production YoY & Fixed Asset Investment YoY (Apr)

• 04:30 🇹🇭 Thailand GDP YoY (Q1)

• 09:00 🇨🇭 Switzerland GDP QoQ (Q1)

Earnings – Energy & Utilities

• $GTLS (NYSE) Chart Industries – Industrials / LNG & Energy Equipment 🇺🇸

• $NTPC (BSE) NTPC – Utilities / Coal & Thermal Power India 🇮🇳

• $SLR (BME) Solaria Energia – Utilities / Solar Energy Spain 🇪🇸

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $TATA (BSE) Tata Steel – Materials / Integrated Steel India 🇮🇳

• $LYC (ASX) Lynas Rare Earths – Materials / Rare Earth Mining & Processing Australia 🇦🇺

Earnings – Other

• $BIDU (NASDAQ) Baidu – Technology / AI, Search & Cloud China 🇨🇳

Tuesday, May 19

Economic Events

• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan GDP QoQ, YoY & Price Index (Q1)

• 03:30 🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes

• 06:30 🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production MoM (Mar)

• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK Employment Change 3M/3M, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings & Claimant Count (Mar/Apr)

• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Trade Balance (Mar)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada CPI MoM & YoY + Core CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales MoM (Apr)

Earnings – Energy

• $IOCL (BSE) Indian Oil Corporation – Energy / Oil Refining & Distribution India 🇮🇳

Earnings – Other

• $HD (NYSE) Home Depot – Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement Retail 🇺🇸

Wednesday, May 20

Economic Events

• 03:00 🇨🇳 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y Decision (May)

• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK CPI MoM & YoY + PPI Input MoM (Apr)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany PPI MoM (Apr)

• 09:30 🇮🇩 Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI YoY, Core CPI YoY & MoM – Final (Apr)

• 16:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories

• 20:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Earnings – Technology & Semiconductors

• $NVDA (NASDAQ) Nvidia – Technology / AI Semiconductors & Data Centres 🇺🇸

• $ADI (NASDAQ) Analog Devices – Technology / Analog & Mixed-Signal Semiconductors 🇺🇸

Earnings – Energy

• $LPG (NYSE) Dorian LPG – Energy / LPG Shipping & Transport 🇺🇸

Earnings – Other

• $TJX (NYSE) TJX Companies – Consumer Discretionary / Off-Price Retail 🇺🇸

• $LOW (NYSE) Lowe’s Companies – Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement 🇺🇸

• $TGT (NYSE) Target – Consumer Discretionary / Retail 🇺🇸

• $INTU (NASDAQ) Intuit – Technology / Financial Software 🇺🇸

Thursday, May 21

Economic Events

• 01:50 🇯🇵 Japan Trade Balance, Exports YoY & Adjusted Trade Balance (Apr)

• 03:30 🇦🇺 Australia Employment Change, Full Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Apr)

• 09:15 🇫🇷 France Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (May)

• 09:30 🇩🇪 Germany Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (May)

• 10:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI Flash (May)

• 10:30 🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI Flash (May)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims + Continuing Jobless Claims

• 14:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits & Housing Starts MoM (Apr)

• 15:45 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI Flash (May)

Earnings – Agriculture & Industrials

• $WMT (NYSE) Walmart – Consumer Staples / Global Retail & Grocery 🇺🇸

• $DE (NYSE) Deere & Company – Industrials / Agricultural & Construction Equipment 🇺🇸

• $TATE (LSE) Tate & Lyle – Consumer Staples / Specialty Food Ingredients 🇬🇧

• $FLO (NYSE) Flowers Foods – Consumer Staples / Bread & Bakery Products 🇺🇸

Earnings – Materials & Metals

• $JMAT (LSE) Johnson Matthey – Materials / Platinum Group Metals & Specialty Chemicals 🇬🇧

Earnings – Energy

• $GAIL (BSE) GAIL India – Energy / Natural Gas Distribution & Pipelines 🇮🇳

Earnings – Other

• $NTES (NASDAQ) NetEase – Technology / Gaming & Cloud China 🇨🇳

• $ROST (NASDAQ) Ross Stores – Consumer Discretionary / Off-Price Retail 🇺🇸

• $WDAY (NASDAQ) Workday – Technology / HR & Finance Cloud Software 🇺🇸

• $G (Euronext Milan) Assicurazioni Generali – Financials / Insurance Italy 🇮🇹

• $BTA (LSE) BT Group – Communication Services / Telecom 🇬🇧

Friday, May 22

Economic Events

• 01:30 🇯🇵 Japan National CPI MoM & Core CPI YoY (Apr)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany GDP QoQ & YoY Final (Q1)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 GfK German Consumer Climate (Jun)

• 08:00 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales MoM & YoY + Core Retail Sales (Apr)

• 10:00 🇩🇪 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

• 14:30 🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales MoM & Core Retail Sales MoM (Mar)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Expectations & Inflation Expectations Final (May)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 US Leading Index MoM (Apr)

• 19:00 🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count

• 21:30 CFTC speculative positions – Gold, Crude, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Earnings – Materials & Mining

• $HNDL (BSE) Hindalco Industries – Materials / Aluminium & Copper India 🇮🇳

Earnings – Other

• $3690 (HKEX) Meituan – Consumer Discretionary / Food Delivery & Local Services China 🇨🇳

• $BAH (NYSE) Booz Allen Hamilton – Industrials / Defence & Government Consulting 🇺🇸

That’s it for now. Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

Richard Dennis, interview in Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwager, 1989

EQUITY MARKETS – INDICES

US markets keep finding ways to surprise. Led by tech, they have reached new all-time highs following one of the fastest recoveries in history. Now the question everyone is asking is how much further this can go.

The truth is, there is no answer to that, even if it was the right question. As long as the structure points up, I will not be selling or shorting this. My system doesn’t allow me to fight uptrends. What I’d rather be looking at is the volatility. It is often the early signal of where we reach an exhaustion phase and potential reversal.

Divergence is interesting here as well. US markets are at new highs, but developed markets outside the US are still not there. What is running is South Korea, almost in melt-up fashion, with Taiwan and Japan also doing extremely well.

The Hang Seng just upgraded to a medium-term uptrend this week, which is notable. Growth markets continue to perform well. I remain long Brazil. I entered after the April tariff crash, and the trend is intact.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• S&P 500 VIX – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• HSI HANG SENG – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $EWC $EWG $EWU $EWQ $EWL $EWY $EWJ $FXI $KWEB $EWZ $INDA

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

FOREX

It’s still all about the dollar here, and it has now flipped to a medium-term downtrend as well. What is remarkable is that this happened against the backdrop of an active oil shock and a geopolitical conflict that would historically have sent the dollar much higher. It tried to breach 100 on the $DXY during the peak Iran war phase but got rejected. That rejection matters.

The fiscal backdrop, the new Fed expectations, and the shift toward short-end debt issuance are doing real work here. If we break support on the $DXY, then the direction of travel for the dollar is lower. In any case, we follow the trends first, and for now the trend is not the dollar’s friend.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• MXN/USD – MEXICAN PESO: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ZAR/USD – SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: downtrend ➝ uptrend

• AU/USD – GOLD: downtrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX: sideways ➝ downtrend

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: downtrend ➝ sideways

• AU/USD – GOLD: sideways ➝ uptrend

• KRW/USD – SOUTH KOREAN WON: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PLN/USD – POLISH ZLOTY: sideways ➝ uptrend

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CHF/USD – SWISS FRANC: neutral ➝ positive

• JPY/USD – JAPANESE YEN: positive ➝ neutral

$USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $CHF $JPY $CAD $MXN $BRL $AUD $NZD $ZAR $AU $BTC $ETH $CNH $INR $SGD $KRW $RUB $PLN $NOK $SEK

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Silver flipped again to a short-term uptrend this week and the COT turned positive, which is worth noting. Platinum is recovering from its recent weakness, upgrading back to a medium-term uptrend. Iron ore and zinc are both picking up short-term strength.

The broader thesis here has not changed. Industrial metals remain a direct beneficiary of the government spending supercycle that is unfolding, accelerated by the energy and defence buildout. Supply side pressures from the energy crisis are real and not going away quickly. We are long, and the trend structure across most of this complex continues to support that.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• PALLADIUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: sideways ➝ uptrend

• URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend ➝ sideways

• ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways ➝ uptrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• COBALT – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• IRON ORE, 62% – CHINA: uptrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• SILVER – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: negative ➝ neutral

$SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

ENERGIES

Crude has paused short-term, moving from uptrend to sideways, no wonder given the reserves being released at historically fast pace and constant flow of news to smash it down at every corner. In any case, the reality will eventually prevail.

Natural gas is the one to watch right now. It has been building a base and this week flipped back to a short-term uptrend. It may still take time, and by time it may be year plus, but buying cheap with a changing trend is usually the right approach, and the structural setup in natural gas is compelling given where reserves and infrastructure investment stand.

Coal remains in both short and medium-term uptrend. It is the quiet winner in all of this. Energy was never treated as the strategic priority it always should have been. That is changing fast, and the market is just starting to price it accordingly.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• CRUDE OIL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

• NATURAL GAS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ uptrend

• ETHANOL – UNITED STATES: uptrend ➝ sideways

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$CL $USO $NG $XLE $COAL

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

TREASURIES

Nothing changed in the trend structure this week, which in itself tells a story. All maturities remain in medium and short-term downtrend across the board, and there is no signal that is about to shift. Energy prices staying elevated means inflation expectations stay elevated, and that keeps yields under pressure.

Japan’s 10-year yield is now around 2.5 percent. That is a level not seen since before the global financial crisis, and they appear to have completely abandoned any effort to cap it. UK yields are breaking out too. This is not a US-only story. It is a global story, and the direction is the same almost everywhere. I stay away from any longs in bonds.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• NONE

$SHY $IEF $TLT

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

AGRICULTURE

The underlying thesis remains very much in place. The energy and fertilizer crisis is feeding through into production costs, and that takes time to show up in prices fully.

The core $DBA position stays. We have also done well in many individual longs. These require much more active trading, new opportunities are constantly building, running and then shifting. I expect this to be one of the more interesting areas to trade through the rest of the year, and beyond.

SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• LEAN HOGS – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• ORANGE JUICE – UNITED STATES: sideways ➝ downtrend

• COCOA – UNITED STATES: downtrend ➝ sideways

COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK

• COFFEE C – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

• SUGAR NO. 11 – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ positive

• LUMBER – UNITED STATES: positive ➝ neutral

• SOYBEAN MEAL – UNITED STATES: neutral ➝ negative

$CT $OJ $KC $SB $CC $LBR $ZW $ZC $ZR $ZS $ZL $ZM $RS $LE $GF $HE

Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

That’s it for now. As always, reach out if you want to dig into anything further. Below you can find the summary of upcoming economic events and earnings.

Stay safe out there!

Kacper Piotr Kaminski, Cerlogic Markets Research – intel.cerlogic.com

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and every participant is responsible for their own decisions.

Economic Events & Earnings Calendar – May 11–15, 2026

Monday, May 11

Economic Events

• 03:30 🇦🇺 Building Approvals MoM (Mar)

• 03:30 🇨🇳 CPI MoM & YoY + PPI YoY (Apr)

• 09:00 🇹🇷 Turkish Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Mar)

• 16:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Apr)

Earnings – Energy

• $CEG (NASDAQ) Constellation Energy – Utilities / Nuclear & Clean Energy 🇺🇸

• $PBR (NYSE / B3) Petrobras – Energy / Integrated Oil & Gas 🇧🇷

• $KOS (LSE) Kosmos Energy – Energy / Offshore Oil & Gas E&P 🇬🇧

• $TCW (TSX) Trican Well Service – Energy / Oilfield Services 🇨🇦

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $5713 (TSE) Sumitomo Metal Mining – Materials / Copper, Nickel & Gold Mining 🇯🇵

• $NDA (Xetra) Aurubis – Materials / Copper Smelting & Refining 🇩🇪

• $MOS (NYSE) Mosaic – Materials / Phosphate & Potash Fertilizers 🇺🇸

Earnings – Agriculture

• $UPLL (BSE) UPL – Materials / Agrochemicals & Crop Protection 🇮🇳

Earnings – Other

• $FOX (NASDAQ) Fox Corporation – Communication Services / Media 🇺🇸

Tuesday, May 12

Economic Events

• 01:30 🇯🇵 Household Spending MoM & YoY (Mar)

• 03:30 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Apr)

• 08:00 🇩🇪 Germany CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 08:30 🇨🇭 Switzerland PPI MoM (Apr)

• 11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)

• 11:00 🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment & Current Conditions (May)

• 12:30 🇮🇳 India CPI YoY (Apr)

• 14:00 🇧🇷 Brazil CPI YoY (Apr)

• 14:30 🇺🇸 CPI MoM & YoY + Core CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)

• 18:00 🇺🇸 WASDE – World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (May)

• 18:00 🇺🇸 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (May)

Earnings – Energy

• $ENR (Xetra) Siemens Energy – Energy / Power Equipment & Grid Technology 🇩🇪

• $PEY (TSX) Peyto Exploration – Energy / Natural Gas E&P 🇨🇦

• $PXT (TSX) Parex Resources – Energy / Oil E&P Colombia 🇨🇦

• $EGY (LSE) VAALCO Energy – Energy / Oil & Gas E&P 🇬🇧

Earnings – Metals & Mining

• $FNV (NYSE / TSX) Franco-Nevada – Materials / Gold & Silver Royalty & Streaming 🇨🇦

• $TKA (Xetra) Thyssenkrupp – Materials / Steel & Industrial Manufacturing 🇩🇪

Earnings – Agriculture

• $BAYN (Xetra) Bayer – Healthcare & Agriculture / Crop Science & Pharma 🇩🇪

• $AG (NYSE / TSX) First Majestic Silver – Materials / Silver & Gold Mining 🇨🇦

Earnings – Other